Fabienne Maignan

CO2 surface fluxes at grid point scale estimated from a global 21 year reanalysis of atmospheric measurements

This paper documents a global Bayesian variational inversion of CO2 surface fluxes during the period 1988-2008. Weekly fluxes are estimated on a 3.75 degrees x 2.5 degrees (longitude-latitude) grid throughout the 21 years. The assimilated observations include 128 station records from three large data sets of surface CO2 mixing ratio measurements. A Monte Carlo approach rigorously quantifies the theoretical uncertainty of the inverted fluxes at various space and time scales, which is particularly important for proper interpretation of the inverted fluxes. Fluxes are evaluated indirectly against two independent CO2 vertical profile data sets constructed from aircraft measurements in the boundary layer and in the free troposphere. The skill of the inversion is evaluated by the improvement brought over a simple benchmark flux estimation based on the observed atmospheric growth rate. Our error analysis indicates that the carbon budget from the inversion should be more accurate than the a priori carbon budget by 20% to 60% for terrestrial fluxes aggregated at the scale of subcontinental regions in the Northern Hemisphere and over a year, but the inversion cannot clearly distinguish between the regional carbon budgets within a continent. On the basis of the independent observations, the inversion is seen to improve the fluxes compared to the benchmark: the atmospheric simulation of CO2 with the Bayesian inversion method is better by about 1 ppm than the benchmark in the free troposphere, despite possible systematic transport errors. The inversion achieves this improvement by changing the regional fluxes over land at the seasonal and at the interannual time scales. (Less)

Global CO2 fluxes inferred from surface air-sample measurements and from TCCON retrievals of the CO2 total column

We present the first estimate of the global distribution of CO_2 surface fluxes from 14 stations of the Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON). The evaluation of this inversion is based on 1) comparison with the fluxes from a classical inversion of surface air-sample-measurements, and 2) comparison of CO_2 mixing ratios calculated from the inverted fluxes with independent aircraft measurements made during the two years analyzed here, 2009 and 2010. The former test shows similar seasonal cycles in the northern hemisphere and consistent regional carbon budgets between inversions from the two datasets, even though the TCCON inversion appears to be less precise than the classical inversion. The latter test confirms that the TCCON inversion has improved the quality (i.e., reduced the uncertainty) of the surface fluxes compared to the assumed or prior fluxes. The consistency between the surface-air-sample-based and the TCCON-based inversions despite remaining flaws in transport models opens the possibility of increased accuracy and robustness of flux inversions based on the combination of both data sources and confirms the usefulness of space-borne monitoring of the CO_2 column.

What eddy-covariance measurements tell us about prior land flux errors in CO2-flux inversion schemes

To guide the future development of CO2-atmospheric inversion modeling systems, we analyzed the errors arising from prior information about terrestrial ecosystem fluxes. We compared the surface fluxes calculated by a process-based terrestrial ecosystem model with daily averages of CO2 flux measurements at 156 sites across the world in the FLUXNET network. At the daily scale, the standard deviation of the model-data fit was 2.5 gC*m−2*d−1; temporal autocorrelations were significant at the weekly scale (>0.3 for lags less than four weeks), while spatial correlations were confined to within the first few hundred kilometers (<0.2 after 200 km). Separating out the plant functional types did not increase the spatial correlations, except for the deciduous broad-leaved forests. Using the statistics of the flux measurements as a proxy for the statistics of the prior flux errors was shown not to be a viable approach. A statistical model allowed us to upscale the site-level flux error statistics to the coarser spatial and temporal resolutions used in regional or global models. This approach allowed us to quantify how aggregation reduces error variances, while increasing correlations. As an example, for a typical inversion of grid point (300 km × 300 km) monthly fluxes, we found that the prior flux error follows an approximate e-folding correlation length of 500 km only, with correlations from one month to the next as large as 0.6.

Sensitivity of land use change emission estimates to historical land use and land cover mapping

The carbon emissions from land use and land cover change (ELUC) are an important anthropogenic component of the global carbon budget. Yet these emissions have a large uncertainty. Uncertainty in historical land use and land cover change (LULCC) maps and their implementation in global vegetation models is one of the key sources of the spread of ELUC calculated by global vegetation models. In this study, we used the Organizing Carbon and Hydrology in Dynamic Ecosystems terrestrial biosphere model to investigate how the different transition rules to define the priority of conversion from natural vegetation to agricultural land affect the historical reconstruction of plant functional types (PFTs) and ELUC. First, we reconstructed 10 sets of historical PFT maps using different transition rules and two methods. Then, we calculated ELUC from these 10 different historical PFT maps and an additional published PFT reconstruction, using the difference between two sets of simulations (with and without LULCC). The total area of forest loss is highly correlated with the total simulated ELUC (R2 = 0.83, P < 0.001) across the reconstructed PFT maps, which indicates that the choice of transition rules is a critical (and often overlooked) decision affecting the simulated ELUC. In addition to the choice of a transition rule, the initial land cover map and the reconstruction method for the reconstruction of historical PFT maps have an important impact on the resultant estimates of ELUC.

Surface Temperature Downscaling From Multiresolution Instruments Based on Markov Models

The spatial resolution of thermal infrared (TIR) instruments is often not sufficient for many applications, but this low resolution is counterbalanced by the high temporal resolution (for example the SEVIRI instrument onboard the European Meteosat 8 and 9 presents a spatial resolution of 3 km × 3 km at nadir and a temporal resolution of 15 mn). At kilometric scales, the observed pixel is generally heterogeneous in terms of land cover, and the temperatures of the different components may present large discrepancies. This paper presents a methodology to infer the temperatures of the various land cover/use classes composing a mixed pixel, from a whole pixel measurement. To infer intra-pixel temperature, information on the mixture within each low resolution pixel, e.g., the proportions of the land cover types derived from high spatial resolution imaging, account for a first constraint. However, in the absence of supplementary constraints, the number of unknown variables is greater than the number of measurements, and there is not uniqueness of the solution. Thus, we propose to take advantage of a priori knowledge provided by a land surface model (LSM), and of the temporal and spatial correlation features of the surface temperature. We propose a new downscaling method for estimating sub pixel signal. It applies to TIR data and: the inversion procedure provides as a result, the land surface temperature (LST) temporal series of each land cover/use class (called endmember) constituting the coarse resolution pixel. Three kinds of a priori information have been introduced, namely (1) a first guess subpixel temperature derived from the SEtHyS LSM; (2) a Markov Random Chain model of the surface temperature temporal dependencies from times t to t + 1 ; (3) a Markov Random Field model of the spatial dependencies between endmember temperatures. Then, the “Maximum A Posteriori” estimator provides the most likely endmember temperatures, given (1) the observed coarse resolution temperatures, (2) the composition of the pixels in terms of “land cover/land use,” and (3) the LSM first guess subpixel temperature values, (4) the a priori spatial and temporal Markov models. The performance of this new method has been first evaluated on simulated data (random Gaussian variables with means equal to endmember temperatures simulated using LSM). The method accuracy versus the observation errors and the number of endmembers was analyzed. The algorithm was then run on actual data, namely Meteosat SEVIRI Land Surface products acquired over an agricultural region in southeastern France. The performance evaluation was done by comparing the subpixel LST estimations to the high-resolution temperatures provided by the Terra/ASTER instrument. Due to the huge bias between sensors ( ~ 4 K), an intercalibration preprocessing between SEVIRI and ASTER was done. In this case, the achieved RMSE is lower than 2 K.

Strong constraint on modelled global carbon uptake using solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence data

Accurate terrestrial biosphere model (TBM) simulations of gross carbon uptake (gross primary productivity – GPP) are essential for reliable future terrestrial carbon sink projections. However, uncertainties in TBM GPP estimates remain. Newly-available satellite-derived sun-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) data offer a promising direction for addressing this issue by constraining regional-to-global scale modelled GPP. Here, we use monthly 0.5° GOME-2 SIF data from 2007 to 2011 to optimise GPP parameters of the ORCHIDEE TBM. The optimisation reduces GPP magnitude across all vegetation types except C4 plants. Global mean annual GPP therefore decreases from 194 ± 57 PgCyr−1 to 166 ± 10 PgCyr−1, bringing the model more in line with an up-scaled flux tower estimate of 133 PgCyr−1. Strongest reductions in GPP are seen in boreal forests: the result is a shift in global GPP distribution, with a ~50% increase in the tropical to boreal productivity ratio. The optimisation resulted in a greater reduction in GPP than similar ORCHIDEE parameter optimisation studies using satellite-derived NDVI from MODIS and eddy covariance measurements of net CO2 fluxes from the FLUXNET network. Our study shows that SIF data will be instrumental in constraining TBM GPP estimates, with a consequent improvement in global carbon cycle projections.

Testing the capability of ORCHIDEE land surface model to simulate Arctic ecosystems: Sensitivity analysis and site‐level model calibration

The ORCHIDEE land surface model has recently been updated to improve the representation of high latitude environments. The model now includes improved soil thermodynamics and the representation of permafrost physical processes (soil thawing and freezing), as well as a new snow model to improve the representation of the seasonal evolution of the snow pack and the resulting insulation effects. The model was evaluated against data from the experimental sites of the WSibIso-Megagrant project (www.wsibiso.ru). ORCHIDEE was applied in stand-alone mode, on two experimental sites located in the Yamal Peninsula in the northwestern part of Siberia. These sites are representative of circumpolar-arctic tundra environments and differ by their respective fractions of shrub/tree cover and soil type. After performing a global sensitivity analysis to identify those parameters that have most influence on the simulation of energy and water transfers, the model was calibrated at local scale and evaluated against in situ measurements (vertical profiles of soil temperature and moisture, as well as active layer thickness) acquired during summer 2012. The results show how sensitivity analysis can identify the dominant processes and thereby reduce the parameter space for the calibration process. We also discuss the model performance at simulating the soil temperature and water content (i.e., energy and water transfers in the soil-vegetation-atmosphere continuum) and the contribution of the vertical discretization of the hydro-thermal properties. This work clearly shows, at least at the two sites used for validation, that the new ORCHIDEE vertical discretization can represent the water and heat transfers through complex cryogenic arctic soils — soils which present multiple horizons sometimes with peat inclusions. The improved model allows us to prescribe the vertical heterogeneity of the soil hydro-thermal properties.

Author Correction: Strong constraint on modelled global carbon uptake using solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence data

A correction to this article has been published and is linked from the HTML and PDF versions of this paper. The error has not been fixed in the paper.