Fabio A. C. C. Chalub

Stern-Judging: A Simple, Successful Norm Which Promotes Cooperation under Indirect Reciprocity

We study the evolution of cooperation under indirect reciprocity, believed to constitute the biological basis of morality. We employ an evolutionary game theoretical model of multilevel selection, and show that natural selection and mutation lead to the emergence of a robust and simple social norm, which we call stern-judging. Under stern-judging, helping a good individual or refusing help to a bad individual leads to a good reputation, whereas refusing help to a good individual or helping a bad one leads to a bad reputation. Similarly for tit-for-tat and win-stay-lose-shift, the simplest ubiquitous strategies in direct reciprocity, the lack of ambiguity of stern-judging, where implacable punishment is compensated by prompt forgiving, supports the idea that simplicity is often associated with evolutionary success.

Cancer phenotype as the outcome of an evolutionary game between normal and malignant cells

Background:There is variability in the cancer phenotype across individuals: two patients with the same tumour may experience different disease life histories, resulting from genetic variation within the tumour and from the interaction between tumour and host. Until now, phenotypic variability has precluded a clear-cut identification of the fundamental characteristics of a given tumour type.Methods:Using multiple myeloma as an example, we apply the principles of evolutionary game theory to determine the fundamental characteristics that define the phenotypic variability of a tumour.Results:Tumour dynamics is determined by the frequency-dependent fitness of different cell populations, resulting from the benefits and costs accrued by each cell type in the presence of others. Our study shows how the phenotypic variability in multiple myeloma bone disease can be understood through the theoretical approach of a game that allows the identification of key genotypic features in a tumour and provides a natural explanation for phenotypic variability. This analysis also illustrates how complex biochemical signals can be translated into cell fitness that determines disease dynamics.Conclusion:The present paradigm is general and extends well beyond multiple myeloma, and even to non-neoplastic disorders. Furthermore, it provides a new perspective in dealing with cancer eradication. Instead of trying to kill all cancer cells, therapies should aim at reducing the fitness of malignant cells compared with normal cells, allowing natural selection to eradicate the tumour.

From discrete to continuous evolution models: A unifying approach to drift-diffusion and replicator dynamics

We study the large population limit of the Moran process, under the assumption of weak-selection, and for different scalings. Depending on the particular choice of scalings, we obtain a continuous model that may highlight the genetic-drift (neutral evolution) or natural selection; for one precise scaling, both effects are present. For the scalings that take the genetic-drift into account, the continuous model is given by a singular diffusion equation, together with two conservation laws that are already present at the discrete level. For scalings that take into account only natural selection, we obtain a hyperbolic singular equation that embeds the Replicator Dynamics and satisfies only one conservation law. The derivation is made in two steps: a formal one, where the candidate limit model is obtained, and a rigorous one, where convergence of the probability density is proved. Additional results on the fixation probabilities are also presented.

The frequency-dependent Wright–Fisher model: diffusive and non-diffusive approximations

We study a class of processes that are akin to the Wright–Fisher model, with transition probabilities weighted in terms of the frequency-dependent fitness of the population types. By considering an approximate weak formulation of the discrete problem, we are able to derive a corresponding continuous weak formulation for the probability density. Therefore, we obtain a family of partial differential equations for the evolution of the probability density, and which will be an approximation of the discrete process in the joint large population, small time-steps and weak selection limit. If the fitness functions are sufficiently regular, we can recast the weak formulation in a more standard formulation, without any boundary conditions, but supplemented by a number of conservation laws. The equations in this family can be purely diffusive, purely hyperbolic or of convection–diffusion type, with frequency dependent convection. The particular outcome will depend on the assumed scalings. The diffusive equations are of the degenerate type; using a duality approach, we also obtain a frequency dependent version of the Kimura equation without any further assumptions. We also show that the convective approximation is related to the replicator dynamics and provide some estimate of how accurate is the convective approximation, with respect to the convective-diffusion approximation. In particular, we show that the mode, but not the expected value, of the probability distribution is modelled by the replicator dynamics. Some numerical simulations that illustrate the results are also presented.

The SIR epidemic model from a PDE point of view

We present a derivation of the classical Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) and Susceptible-Infected-Removed-Susceptible (SIRS) models through a mean-field approximation from a discrete version of SIR(S). We then obtain a hyperbolic forward Kolmogorov equation, and show that its projected characteristics recover the standard SIR(S) model. Moreover, for the SIRS model, we show that the long time limit of the SIRS model will be a Dirac measure supported on the corresponding isolated equilibria. For the SIR model, we show that the long time limit is a Radon measure supported in a segment of nonisolated equilibria.

Discrete versus continuous models in evolutionary dynamics: From simple to simpler-and even simpler-models

There are many different models-both continuous and discrete-used to describe gene mutation fixation. In particular, the Moran process, the Kimura equation and the replicator dynamics are all well known models, that might lead to different conclusions. We present a discussion of a unified framework to embrace all these models, in the large population regime.

Fixation in large populations: a continuous view of a discrete problem

We study fixation in large, but finite, populations with two types, and dynamics governed by birth-death processes. By considering a restricted class of such processes, which includes many of the evolutionary processes usually discussed in the literature, we derive a continuous approximation for the probability of fixation that is valid beyond the weak-selection (WS) limit. Indeed, in the derivation three regimes naturally appear: selection-driven, balanced, and quasi-neutral—the latter two require WS, while the former can appear with or without WS. From the continuous approximations, we then obtain asymptotic approximations for evolutionary dynamics with at most one equilibrium, in the selection-driven regime, that does not preclude a weak-selection regime. As an application, we study the fixation pattern when the infinite population limit has an interior evolutionary stable strategy (ESS): (1) we show that the fixation pattern for the Hawk and Dove game satisfies what we term the one-half law: if the ESS is outside a small interval around

On the stochastic evolution of finite populations

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