Fabio L. Mattos

The Expansion of the Brazilian Winter Corn Crop and Its Impact on Price Transmission

The purpose of this study is to analyze the impact of the growth of the Brazilian winter corn crop on the dynamics between domestic Brazilian prices and international prices as well as spot and futures prices in Brazil. Econometric time-series methods tests were applied using Brazilian spot and futures prices and U.S. futures prices. The statistical analysis found evidence that a long-run relationship between Brazilian and U.S. prices had developed, and the Brazilian futures market developed a more dominant role in the relationship between spot and futures prices domestically. These findings were particularly noticeable after 2002, when expanding corn production in Brazil was leading to greater participation in the international market (exports) and increasing trading in the Brazilian futures market.

The Reaction of Coffee Futures Price Volatility to Crop Reports

ABSTRACT Analysis of prices and volatility plays an important role in coffee market, especially for developing countries, whose small producers and economies rely heavily on income generated by coffee trade. This study explores the impact of coffee crop reports on price volatility for coffee futures contracts during 2004–2014. Overall, results indicate that crop reports generally affect price volatility. The impact is particularly stronger when they provide information following the flowering periods in Colombia, Brazil, and Vietnam, world’s major producers.

Use of crops and livestock futures contracts in portfolios: an analysis of feasibility

According to Portfolio Theory, by combining assets that show a correlation inferior to one (1) among their individual returns, it becomes possible to create portfolios that reduce risk without damaging expected return. Crop and livestock futures contracts and company stocks show such a characteristic, which signals potential benefits when forming portfolios combining these two types of assets. This investment strategy is not often utilized in Brazil. The purpose of our research was to assess whether such an asset combination is actually advantageous to those creating investment portfolios in the Brazilian market. Our evaluation used instruments of analysis developed by Markowitz in Portfolio Theory and data about the return from crop and livestock futures contracts and stocks. The data was gathered from the Brazilian Futures and Commodities Exchange (BM&F) and Brazilx92s National Association of Open Market Institutions (ANDIMA) between July 1994 and December 1998. The results of this work showed that the combination of these two types of assets in investment portfolios can be an interesting portfolio management alternative.