Joaquim Bento de Souza Ferreira Filho

The Doha Round, Poverty and Regional Inequality in Brazil

This paper addresses the potential effects of the Doha round of trade negotiations on poverty and income distribution in Brazil, using an applied general equilibrium (AGE) and micro-simulation model of Brazil tailored for income distribution and poverty analysis. Of particular importance is the fact that the representative household hypothesis is replaced by a detailed representation of households. The model distinguishes 10 different labor types and has 270 different household expenditure patterns. Income can originate from 41 different production activities (which produce 52 commodities), located in 27 different regions in the country. The AGE model communicates to a micro-simulation model that has 112,055 Brazilian households and 263,938 adults. Poverty and income distribution indices are computed over the entire sample of households and persons, before and after the policy shocks. Model results show that even important trade policy shocks, such as those applied in this study, do not generate dramatic changes in the structure of poverty and income distribution in the Brazilian economy. The simulated effects on poverty and income distribution are positive, but rather small. The benefits are concentrated in the poorest households.

Economic integration, poverty and regional inequality in Brazil

Este trabalho analisa os efeitos potenciais da formacao da ALCA sobre os niveis de pobreza e distribuicao de renda no Brasil. A analise e conduzida atraves de um Modelo Aplicado de Equilibrio Geral e de Micro-simulacao estatico, calibrado com os dados da PNAD 2001. O modelo distingue na sua estrutura 112.055 domicilios e 263.938 adultos, 42 atividades produtivas, 52 produtos, e 27 regioes. Os resultados apontam para o fato de que mesmo mudancas tarifarias grandes como as aqui simuladas nao trariam um forte impacto sobre a pobreza no Brasil, embora os resultados estejam concentrados nos domicilios mais pobres.

Economias de escala na produção de leite: uma análise dos estados de Rondônia, Tocantins e Rio de Janeiro

This study aimed to analize the business maintenance issue faced by milk producers, in the long term. It was analized farms in the states of Rondonia, Tocantins and Rio de Janeiro. The main goal of this study was to verify the existence of economies of scale among milk pro-ducers. The function that presented better adequacy to the data was that of cost translog. The production factors taken into consideration were: capital, land, work and direct expenses. The economic analysis shows the difficulties to survive faced by farmers in the long term. This ha-ppens because the relation immobilized capital/production is very high. The regression results reveal that the vast majority of producers in this case study operate in economies of scale, being that only 3.4% of them do not. The point of minimum average cost was obtained at about 178 thousand liters per year, that is, an average of 487 liters per day. Another group formed by 10% of the case study is closer to the point of minimum average cost and presents a daily production between 183 and 487 liters. And finally, the last group which presents itself in a less favorable situ-ation with a production lower than 180 liters per day. It is highlighted that these producers can significantly reduce their costs if they increase their production, once they are found in the most accentuated part of the average cost curve in the long term and can greatly develop in the activity by using the economies of scale.

Economias de Escala na Produção de Frangos de Corte no Brasil

In this paper we estimate the parameters of a translog cost function for the broiler production activity in Brazil, to infer about scale economies in the activity. Cross-section data is used, from a survey of 229 producers in the main producing regions. Other characteristics of the producers surveyed are also discussed. Our estimates of scale economies show an optimal scale of production around 110 thousand kilos of live hens, corresponding to a 3,500 m2 plant area. The paper points to the conclusion that the optimal size of exploitation is smaller than that suggested by some processing industries. Larger scale farms would be operating with diseconomies of scale, what could generate pressures for price increases in the future. The evidence suggests also that some smallscale producers characteristics could help minimize the importance of operating under optimal scale.

Deforestation Control and Agricultural Supply in Brazil

Brazil has dramatically increased its agricultural area under cultivation, in the process becoming a major food exporter at the cost of natural forests. A new challenge is to meet the food demands of an expanding world population in the face of pessimistic climate change scenarios and the increasing scarcity of land. Can Brazil help meet rising world food demand while conserving its tropical rainforests? To address this question we simulate outcomes using a large dynamic multiregional computable general equilibrium model of Brazil to model land use over 20 years in 90 zones and 14 agricultural sectors. The model features a land-use change module based on a transition matrix obtained from satellite imagery. We analyze two scenarios of deforestation reduction, both linked to actual policy proposals. Model results indicate several mechanisms that allow food output to increase without expanding land supply. In particular, we stress the role of Brazils vast, low-yield pasture area as a source of future cropland. Thus, we find that controlling deforestation leads to rather small decreases in food output-which could be neutralized by tiny exogenous productivity improvements. We conclude that the decrease in deforestation will not significantly compromise Brazilian agricultural supply capacity in the foreseeable future.

Estudo da competitividade da produção de algodão entre Brasil e Estados Unidos – safra 2003/04

This study aims to analyze the competitivity of the cotton production in Brazil and United States of America (USA) in terms of production costs, taking into consideration the 2003/04 crop season. In Brazil, data were colleted in “panel conferences” in the state of Mato Grosso (Campo Novo do Parecis and Pimavera do Leste) and also in the north of the Parana state. USA’s data came from secondary sources. The results showed that Brazil has a better competitivity, with good productivity, but high costs per hectare. The risk of the culture is high, given the short margins and the sunk costs. In USA, the average productivity is smaller than in Brazil; the costs are relatively high and the margins are negative in most regions. Results show that the sustainability of the cotton industry in USA is artificial, and dependent of government support.

Substituição de fatores produtivos na produção de soja no Brasil

This paper analyzes the substitution relations between the main inputs used in soybean production in Brazil, through the estimates of Allen and Morishima substitution elasticities. The theoretical approach used is the production/cost duality. The data was obtained from field research in the five main production states in the country. Chemicals, capital, land, labor and other costs were the variables under study. The estimated cross-price elasticities pointed to complementary relations between labor and capital. The Allen partial substitution elasticities showed substitution between most of the production factors, but a strong complementarity relation was found between capital and labor. In the Morishima elasticity of substitution concept capital and labor were found to be complements when the price of capital varies and substitutes when the price of labor varies.

Análise das operações de cross hedge do bezerro e do hedge do boi gordo no mercado futuro da BM&F.

das cotacoes e assim permitir um planejamento mais eficaz da ativi-dade, os mercados de derivativos ajudam a minimizar os riscos devariacoes adversas nos precos e a problematica que envolve a capta-cao de recursos (Schouchana e Perobelli, 2000).A pecuaria bovina de corte do Pais se insere neste quadro aose constituir em uma atividade na qual a maior parte de seus agentesesta exposta a um alto risco de pre co. Isso se deve principalmente aofato da maior parte do sistema de producao ser horizontalizada. Deacordo com dados do Censo Agropecuario (1996), elaborado peloIBGE (Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatistica), aproximada-mente 86,75% do rebanho pecuario de corte nacional, o que corres-ponde a 98,9 milhoes de cabecas de gado, nao provem de producaoverticalizada. A especializacao em uma ou duas das etapas e maiscomum. Em conjunto aos fatores culturais e quest oes ligadas a locali-zacao e preco da terra, aspectos economicos levam os produtores aespecializacao do processo produtivo (Oliveira,1991).Neste sentido, o pre co do bezerro se constitui em uma vari avelchave tanto para os pecuaristas especializados na cria dos animais, comotambem para os agentes envolvidos na cria/engorda, recria/engorda eengorda. Para estes ultimos, o pre co do boi gordo n ao e analisado isola-damente para a decis ao de se realizar ou n ao sua venda. E essencial quese avalie o pre co do bezerro devido ao fato da reposi cao do rebanho serfator fundamental para a continuidade da atividade. Assim, o risco depreco, para estes pecuaristas, envolve a rela cao de troca entre boi gordoe bezerro (Schouchana e Caffagni, 2001).Com a introducao dos contratos de bezerro em outubro de2002, a BM&F passou a oferecer, aos agentes deste sistemaagroindustrial, a possibilidade de realizarem operacoes de protecaocontra os movimentos n ao desejados dos pre cos do bezerro e da rela-cao de troca entre boi gordo e bezerro (neste ultimo caso, os agentesdevem utilizar os contratos futuros destes dois animais) . No entanto,em periodos anteriores, os pecuaristas brasileiros, de forma a se pro-tegerem dos riscos dos precos do bezerro, tinham como alternativa arealizacao de operacoes conhecidas como

Impactos econômicos da introdução do milho Bt11 no Brasil: uma abordagem de equilíbrio geral inter-regional

This study aims to analyze the economic impacts of the adoption of Bt11 corn in Brazil, as well as the consequences of the prohibition of the cultivation only in the Parana state, if the state law number 14.162/03 would start to be active. For this purpose, an inter-regional general equilibrium computable model is used, gauged for 2001, simulating the reduction of insecticide, labor force, fuel and lubricants, as well as the increase in the yield observed in crops which use Bt11 corn. When the adoption of Bt11 corn in “technified” Brazilian regions is analyzed, the stock of capital and labor force moves from all regions to the South of the country. Taking into account that only Parana state does not adopt the Bt11 corn, it is observed that both the labor force and the stock of capital move from the South and the Southeast to the Central-Western region of Brazil. The most expressive result takes place in the Parana State, where not only the corn sector, but also downstream sectors lose competitiveness, reducing the level of activity, employment and household consumption. In general terms, the effects of the adoption of the Bt11 corn are transferred along its supply chain, increasing GDP, exports and household consumption. Results are more expressive in sectors and regions directly related to the corn supply chain, such as animal raising and meat, mostly located in the South of the country.

Climate change, agriculture and economic effects on different regions of Brazil

In this paper we assess the potential economic effects of climate change on Brazilian agriculture scenarios in different regions in a general equilibrium framework, using a detailed regional economic database for the year 2005. Two different climate change impact scenarios are simulated. This paper extends the Brazilian literature in three different ways: by considering detailed shocks by product and region; by highlighting the connections between the potential impacts of climate change on agriculture and the labor market, with an inter-regional focus; and by specifying the links between climate change forecasts for agriculture and household expenditures. Results show that climate change impacts on Brazilian agriculture would have a relatively small economic effect on the Brazilian economy in aggregate terms, but with severe consequences at the regional level, making a strong case for losses that would be concentrated in the poorest regions and for the poorest workers and households in those regions.