Fabrizio Natale

Network analysis of Italian cattle trade patterns and evaluation of risks for potential disease spread.

Livestock movement data represent a valuable source of information to understand the pattern of contacts between premises which may determine the spread of diseases. Social network analysis techniques have been used to analyse the movement patterns of cattle in Italy in 2007. A description of the structure of the Italian cattle industry is presented and the main trade flows and the relations between premises in relation to the potential spread of cattle diseases are investigated. Epidemic simulations have been carried out on the network build out of movement data using a network-based meta-population model. The simulations show the influence of the network structure on the dynamics and size of a hypothetic epidemic and give useful indications on the effects of targeted removal of nodes based on the centrality of premises within the network of animal movements.

Mapping Fishing Effort through AIS Data

Several research initiatives have been undertaken to map fishing effort at high spatial resolution using the Vessel Monitoring System (VMS). An alternative to the VMS is represented by the Automatic Identification System (AIS), which in the EU became compulsory in May 2014 for all fishing vessels of length above 15 meters. The aim of this paper is to assess the uptake of the AIS in the EU fishing fleet and the feasibility of producing a map of fishing effort with high spatial and temporal resolution at European scale. After analysing a large AIS dataset for the period January-August 2014 and covering most of the EU waters, we show that AIS was adopted by around 75% of EU fishing vessels above 15 meters of length. Using the Swedish fleet as a case study, we developed a method to identify fishing activity based on the analysis of individual vessels’ speed profiles and produce a high resolution map of fishing effort based on AIS data. The method was validated using detailed logbook data and proved to be sufficiently accurate and computationally efficient to identify fishing grounds and effort in the case of trawlers, which represent the largest portion of the EU fishing fleet above 15 meters of length. Issues still to be addressed before extending the exercise to the entire EU fleet are the assessment of coverage levels of the AIS data for all EU waters and the identification of fishing activity in the case of vessels other than trawlers.

Mapping the research on aquaculture. A bibliometric analysis of aquaculture literature

Research on aquaculture is expanding along with the exceptional growth of the sector and has an important role in supporting even further the future developments of this relatively young food production industry. In this paper we examined the aquaculture literature using bibliometrics and computational semantics methods (latent semantic analysis, topic model and co-citation analysis) to identify the main themes and trends in research. We analysed bibliographic information and abstracts of 14,308 scientific articles on aquaculture recorded in Scopus. Both the latent semantic analysis and the topic model indicate that the broad themes of research on aquaculture are related to genetics and reproduction, growth and physiology, farming systems and environment, nutrition, water quality, and health. The topic model gives an estimate of the relevance of these research themes by single articles, authors, research institutions, species and time. With the co-citation analysis it was possible to identify more specific research fronts, which are attracting high number of co-citations by the scientific community. The largest research fronts are related to probiotics, benthic sediments, genomics, integrated aquaculture and water treatment. In terms of temporal evolution, some research fronts such as probiotics, genomics, sea-lice, and environmental impacts from cage aquaculture, are still expanding while others, such as mangroves and shrimp farming, benthic sediments, are gradually losing weight. While bibliometric methods do not necessarily provide a measure of output or impact of research activities, they proved useful for mapping a research area, identifying the relevance of themes in the scientific literature and understanding how research fronts evolve and interact. By using different methodological approaches the study is taking advantage of the strengths of each method in mapping the research on aquaculture and showing in the meantime possible limitations and some directions for further improvements.

Evaluation of Risk and Vulnerability Using a Disease Flow Centrality Measure in Dynamic Cattle Trade Networks

A new method for the calculation of a centrality measure (Disease Flow Centrality, DFC), which takes into account temporal dynamics of livestock movement networks, is proposed. The method is based on a network traversal algorithm which represents an epidemic process more realistically compared with traditional graph traversal algorithms used in the calculation of centrality measures on static networks. The new approach was tested on networks generated from all the registered movements of cattle in Italy in the years 2007, 2008 and 2009 and the results were compared to those obtained by classical centrality measures. The results show that DFC values often differ substantially from those of other centrality measures and that these DFC values tend to be more unstable in time. The DFC offers several advantages for assessing risk and vulnerability of specific holdings and of an entire network, using recent movement data from national livestock databases. Some examples also indicate how the basic approach in the DFC calculation could be expanded into a more complex epidemic model by incorporating weights and how it could be combined with a geo-spatial perspective.

Mapping EU fishing activities using ship tracking data

ABSTRACT Information and understanding of fishing activities at sea are fundamental components of marine knowledge and maritime situational awareness. Such information is important to fisheries science, public authorities and policy-makers. In this paper we introduce a first map at European scale of EU fishing activities extracted using Automatic Identification System ship tracking data. The resulting map is a density of points that identify fishing activities. A measure of the reliability of such information is also presented as a map of coverage reception capabilities.

An integrated web system to support veterinary activities in Italy for the management of information in epidemic emergencies

The management of public health emergencies is improved by quick, exhaustive and standardized flow of data on disease outbreaks, by using specific tools for data collection, registration and analysis. In this context, the National Information System for the Notification of Outbreaks of Animal Diseases (SIMAN) has been developed in Italy to collect and share data on the notifications of outbreaks of animal diseases. SIMAN is connected through web services to the national database of animals and holdings (BDN) and has been integrated with tools for the management of epidemic emergencies. The website has been updated with a section dedicated to the contingency planning in case of epidemic emergency. EpiTrace is one such useful tool also integrated in the BDN and based on the Social Network Analysis (SNA) and on network epidemiological models. This tool gives the possibility of assessing the risk associated to holdings and animals on the basis of their trade, in order to support the veterinary services in tracing back and forward the animals in case of outbreaks of infectious diseases.

Global seafood consumption footprint

To ensure food security and nutritional quality for a growing world population in the face of climate change, stagnant capture fisheries production, increasing aquaculture production and competition for natural resources, countries must be accountable for what they consume rather than what they produce. To investigate the sustainability of seafood consumption, we propose a methodology to examine the impact of seafood supply chains across national boundaries: the seafood consumption footprint. The seafood consumption footprint is expressed as the biomass of domestic and imported seafood production required to satisfy national seafood consumption, and is estimated using a multi-regional input output model. Thus, we reconstruct for the first time the global fish biomass flows in national supply chains to estimate consumption footprints at the global, country and sector levels (capture fisheries, aquaculture, distribution and processing, and reduction into fishmeal and fish oil) taking into account the biomass supply from beyond national borders.