Fahim N. Tonmoy

Assessment of Vulnerability to Climate Change Using Indicators: Methodological Challenges

Climate change vulnerability assessment (CCVA) can help policy makers incorporate climate futures in planning. We discuss some of the most important methodological challenges facing CCVA, including geographical and temporal scales, aggregation, and nonlinearity. CCVA literature is large and multidisciplinary and appears to stem from a number of different paradigms (risk assessment, natural disaster management, urban planning, etc.). It is therefore difficult to elicit major directions, findings, and methodologies from this body of work. We study a sample of peer-reviewed CCVA publications and investigate the extent to which the CCVA literature is foregrounding and engaging with these methodological problems. We find that: 1. Critical scrutiny of prevalent assessment methodologies and development of new ones remain limited since only 10 % of the studies focus on such issues. This is despite the fact that many scholars have raised questions about the methodological aspects of vulnerability assessment. 2. Among the studies that aggregate indicators and consider both the biophysical and socioeconomic processes generating vulnerability, 59 % use methods based on multiple attribute utility theory (MAUT) such as arithmetic mean, geometric mean, or GIS-based MAUT, approaches that have strict theoretical requirements which are hardly met in the context of CCVA. 3. Although a number of theoretical papers have argued that indicator-based vulnerability assessment is likely to be most valid at smaller rather than larger geographical scales, only 17 % of studies are conducted at local scale.

Overcoming knowledge barriers to adaptation using a decision support framework

A decision support and information delivery framework, CoastAdapt, has been built to support the coastal adaptation community in Australia to take action to address climate change and sea-level rise. For such frameworks to be useful, used and long-lived, their development requires collaboration between creators and potential users. Therefore, we undertook extensive consultation throughout the design, build and evaluation. In this paper, we explore those aspects of the consultation that focused on understanding and addressing user needs and how CoastAdapt could best provide support to effectively carry out adaptation planning and action. The first step was to identify, through an online survey and workshops, the knowledge gaps and barriers that could be addressed by CoastAdapt. The responses fed into the design and build, together with additional feedback from users on the layout and content. Following release of the beta version, further comments from users were collected and scrutinised to identify modifications that could increase relevance and utility. Finally, test cases were carried out to understand whether CoastAdapt is truly fit for purpose in addressing ‘real-world’ adaptation situations. The end result is a supportive framework for coastal adaptation that will require constant monitoring and updating to ensure it remains fit for purpose given Australia’s rapidly evolving adaptation landscape.

CoastAdapt: an adaptation decision support framework for Australia’s coastal managers

Australia’s coastline is exposed to climate change and sea-level rise impacts from erosion, inundation, and changes to storm tracks and intensity. It accommodates about 80% of the population. Around 250 local councils are responsible for coastal management, with very different capacities to undertake adaptation. A decision support framework was developed to support coastal managers seeking to understand present-day and future climate change, its impacts and possible response options. Extensive engagement was undertaken with practitioners before commencing the design and at all stages of the build, in order to ensure usefulness and usability. The resulting framework, CoastAdapt (coastadapt.com.au), provides comprehensive guidance and support, including understanding of climate change science, expected impacts, and adaptation options. It contains datasets on historical flooding; present-day coastal sensitivity to erosion; and future climate extremes, sea-level rise, and inundation for each coastal council. A risk management framework supports users through the six stages of adaptation from identifying the challenges through to monitoring and evaluation. The performance of CoastAdapt has been evaluated through 11 6-week test cases with coastal managers in the public and private sectors. In future, if CoastAdapt is to remain a useful resource, it must be seen by practitioners as dynamic, relevant, and current, and on-going resources will be needed to achieve this.