Faisal Shuaib

Ebola virus disease outbreak in Nigeria: transmission dynamics and rapid control

International air travel has already spread Ebola virus disease (EVD) to major cities as part of the unprecedented epidemic that started in Guinea in December 2013. An infected airline passenger arrived in Nigeria on July 20, 2014 and caused an outbreak in Lagos and then Port Harcourt. After a total of 20 reported cases, including 8 deaths, Nigeria was declared EVD free on October 20, 2014. We quantified the impact of early control measures in preventing further spread of EVD in Nigeria and calculated the risk that a single undetected case will cause a new outbreak. We fitted an EVD transmission model to data from the outbreak in Nigeria and estimated the reproduction number of the index case at 9.0 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 5.2-15.6). We also found that the net reproduction number fell below unity 15 days (95% CI: 11-21 days) after the arrival of the index case. Hence, our study illustrates the time window for successful containment of EVD outbreaks caused by infected air travelers.

Innovative Technological Approach to Ebola Virus Disease Outbreak Response in Nigeria Using the Open Data Kit and Form Hub Technology

The recent outbreak of Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) in West Africa has ravaged many lives. Effective containment of this outbreak relies on prompt and effective coordination and communication across various interventions; early detection and response being critical to successful control. The use of information and communications technology (ICT) in active surveillance has proved to be effective but its use in Ebola outbreak response has been limited. Due to the need for timeliness in reporting and communication for early discovery of new EVD cases and promptness in response; it became imperative to empower the response team members with technologies and solutions which would enable smooth and rapid data flow. The Open Data Kit and Form Hub technology were used in combination with the Dashboard technology and ArcGIS mapping for follow up of contacts, identification of cases, case investigation and management and also for strategic planning during the response. A remarkable improvement was recorded in the reporting of daily follow-up of contacts after the deployment of the integrated real time technology. The turnaround time between identification of symptomatic contacts and evacuation to the isolation facility and also for receipt of laboratory results was reduced and informed decisions could be taken by all concerned. Accountability in contact tracing was ensured by the use of a GPS enabled device. The use of innovative technologies in the response of the EVD outbreak in Nigeria contributed significantly to the prompt control of the outbreak and containment of the disease by providing a valuable platform for early warning and guiding early actions.

Environmental Isolation of Circulating Vaccine-Derived Poliovirus After Interruption of Wild Poliovirus Transmission — Nigeria, 2016

In September 2015, more than 1 year after reporting its last wild poliovirus (WPV) case in July 2014 (1), Nigeria was removed from the list of countries with endemic poliovirus transmission,* leaving Afghanistan and Pakistan as the only remaining countries with endemic WPV. However, on April 29, 2016, a laboratory-confirmed, circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus type 2 (cVDPV2) isolate was reported from an environmental sample collected in March from a sewage effluent site in Maiduguri Municipal Council, Borno State, a security-compromised area in northeastern Nigeria. VDPVs are genetic variants of the vaccine viruses with the potential to cause paralysis and can circulate in areas with low population immunity. The Nigeria National Polio Emergency Operations Center initiated emergency response activities, including administration of at least 2 doses of oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) to all children aged <5 years through mass campaigns; retroactive searches for missed cases of acute flaccid paralysis (AFP), and enhanced environmental surveillance. Approximately 1 million children were vaccinated in the first OPV round. Thirteen previously unreported AFP cases were identified. Enhanced environmental surveillance has not resulted in detection of additional VDPV isolates. The detection of persistent circulation of VDPV2 in Borno State highlights the low population immunity, surveillance limitations, and risk for international spread of cVDPVs associated with insurgency-related insecurity. Increasing vaccination coverage with additional targeted supplemental immunization activities and reestablishment of effective routine immunization activities in newly secured and difficult-to-reach areas in Borno is urgently needed.

Public Knowledge, Perception and Source of Information on Ebola Virus Disease – Lagos, Nigeria; September, 2014

Background: The first ever outbreak of Ebola virus disease (EVD) in Nigeria was declared in July, 2014. Level of public knowledge, perception and adequacy of information on EVD were unknown. We assessed the public preparedness level to adopt disease preventive behavior which is premised on appropriate knowledge, perception and adequate information. Methods: We enrolled 5,322 respondents in a community-based cross-sectional study. We used interviewer-administered questionnaire to collect data on socio-demographic characteristics, EVD–related knowledge, perception and source of information. We performed univariate and bivariate data analysis using Epi-Info software setting p-value of 0.05 as cut-off for statistical significance. Results: Mean age of respondents was 34 years (± 11.4 years), 52.3% were males. Forty one percent possessed satisfactory general knowledge; 44% and 43.1% possessed satisfactory knowledge on mode of spread and preventive measures, respectively. Residing in EVD cases districts, male respondents and possessing at least secondary education were positively associated with satisfactory general knowledge (p-value: 0.01, 0.001 and 0.000004, respectively). Seventy one percent perceived EVD as a public health problem while 61% believed they cannot contract the disease. Sixty two percent and 64% of respondents will not shake hands and hug a successfully treated EVD patient respectively. Only 2.2% of respondents practice good hand-washing practice. Television (68.8%) and radio (55.0%) are the most common sources of information on EVD. Conclusions: Gaps in EVD-related knowledge and perception exist. Targeted public health messages to raise knowledge level, correct misconception and discourage stigmatization should be widely disseminated, with television and radio as media of choice.

Progress Toward Poliomyelitis Eradication--Nigeria, January 2014-July 2015.

Since the 1988 launch of global poliomyelitis eradication efforts, four of the six World Health Organization (WHO) regions have been certified polio-free. Nigeria is one of only three countries, along with Afghanistan and Pakistan, where transmission of wild poliovirus (WPV) has never been interrupted. During 2003-2013, northern Nigeria served as a reservoir for WPV reintroduction into 26 previously polio-free countries. In 2012, the Nigerian government launched a national polio eradication emergency plan to intensify efforts to interrupt WPV transmission. This report describes polio eradication activities and progress in Nigeria during January 2014-July 2015 and updates previous reports. No WPV cases have been reported to date in 2015, compared with a total of six cases reported during 2014. Onset of paralysis in the latest reported WPV type 1 (WPV1) case was July 24, 2014. Only one case of circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus type 2 (cVDPV2) has been reported to date in 2015, compared with 20 cVDPV2 cases during the same period in 2014. Pending final laboratory testing of 218 remaining specimens of 16,617 specimens collected since January 2015, Nigeria could be removed from the WHO list of polio-endemic countries in September 2015. Major remaining challenges to the national polio eradication program include sustaining political support and program funding in the absence of active WPV transmission, maintaining high levels of population immunity in hard-to-reach areas, and accessing children in security-compromised areas of the northeastern states.

Progress Toward Poliomyelitis Eradication in Nigeria

BACKGROUND Transmission of wild poliovirus (WPV) has never been interrupted in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Nigeria. Since 2003, infections with WPV of Nigerian origin have been detected in 25 polio-free countries. In 2012, the Nigerian government created an emergency operations center and implemented a national emergency action plan to eradicate polio. The 2013 revision of this plan prioritized (1) improving the quality of supplemental immunization activities (SIAs), (2) implementing strategies to reach underserved populations, (3) adopting special approaches in security-compromised areas, (4) improving outbreak response, (5) enhancing routine immunization and activities implemented between SIAs, and (6) strengthening surveillance. This report summarizes implementation of these activities during a period of unprecedented insecurity and violence, including the killing of health workers and the onset of a state of emergency in the northeast zone. METHODS This report reviews management strategies, innovations, trends in case counts, vaccination and social mobilization activities, and surveillance and monitoring data to assess progress in polio eradication in Nigeria. RESULTS Nigeria has made significant improvements in the management of polio eradication initiative (pei) activities with marked improvement in the quality of SIAs, as measured by lot quality assurance sampling (LQAS). Comparing results from February 2012 with results from December 2013, the proportion of local government areas (LGAs) conducting LQAS in the 11 high-risk states at the ≥90% pass/fail threshold increased from 7% to 42%, and the proportion at the 80%-89% threshold increased from 9% to 30%. During January-December 2013, 53 polio cases were reported from 26 LGAs in 9 states in Nigeria, compared with 122 cases reported from 13 states in 2012. No cases of WPV type 3 infection have been reported since November 2012. In 2013, no polio cases due to any poliovirus type were detected in the northwest sanctuaries of Nigeria. In the second half of 2013, WPV transmission was restricted to Kano, Borno, Bauchi, and Taraba states. Despite considerable progress, 24 LGAs in 2012 and 7 LGAs in 2013 reported ≥2 cases, and WPV continued to circulate in 8 LGAs that had cases in 2012. Campaign activities were negatively impacted by insecurity and violence in Borno and Kano states. CONCLUSIONS Efforts to interrupt transmission remain impeded by poor SIA implementation in localized areas, anti-polio vaccine sentiment, and limited access to vaccinate children because of insecurity. Sustained improvement in SIA quality, surveillance, and outbreak response and special strategies in security-compromised areas are needed to interrupt WPV transmission in 2014.

Tracking Vaccination Teams During Polio Campaigns in Northern Nigeria by Use of Geographic Information System Technology: 2013–2015

Introduction. Nigeria is among the 3 countries in which polio remains endemic. The country made significant efforts to reduce polio transmission but remains challenged by poor-quality campaigns and poor team performance in some areas. This article demonstrates the application of geographic information system technology to track vaccination teams to monitor settlement coverage, reduce the number of missed settlements, and improve team performance. Methods. In each local government area where tracking was conducted, global positioning system–enabled Android phones were given to each team on a daily basis and were used to record team tracks. These tracks were uploaded to a dashboard to show the level of coverage and identify areas missed by the teams. Results. From 2012 to June 2015, tracking covered 119 immunization days. A total of 1149 tracking activities were conducted. Of these, 681 (59%) were implemented in Kano state. There was an improvement in the geographic coverage of settlements and an overall reduction in the number of missed settlements. Conclusions. The tracking of vaccination teams provided significant feedback during polio campaigns and enabled supervisors to evaluate performance of vaccination teams. The reports supported other polio program activities, such as review of microplans and the deployment of other interventions, for increasing population immunity in northern Nigeria.

Large Outbreak of Neisseria meningitidis Serogroup C — Nigeria, December 2016–June 2017

On February 16, 2017, the Ministry of Health in Zamfara State, in northwestern Nigeria, notified the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC) of an increased number of suspected cerebrospinal meningitis (meningitis) cases reported from four local government areas (LGAs). Meningitis cases were subsequently also reported from Katsina, Kebbi, Niger, and Sokoto states, all of which share borders with Zamfara State, and from Yobe State in northeastern Nigeria. On April 3, 2017, NCDC activated an Emergency Operations Center (EOC) to coordinate rapid development and implementation of a national meningitis emergency outbreak response plan. After the outbreak was reported, surveillance activities for meningitis cases were enhanced, including retrospective searches for previously unreported cases, implementation of intensified new case finding, and strengthened laboratory confirmation. A total of 14,518 suspected meningitis cases were reported for the period December 13, 2016-June 15, 2017. Among 1,339 cases with laboratory testing, 433 (32%) were positive for bacterial pathogens, including 358 (82.7%) confirmed cases of Neisseria meningitidis serogroup C. In response, approximately 2.1 million persons aged 2-29 years were vaccinated with meningococcal serogroup C-containing vaccines in Katsina, Sokoto, Yobe, and Zamfara states during April-May 2017. The outbreak was declared over on June 15, 2017, after high-quality surveillance yielded no evidence of outbreak-linked cases for 2 consecutive weeks. Routine high-quality surveillance, including a strong laboratory system to test specimens from persons with suspected meningitis, is critical to rapidly detect and confirm future outbreaks and inform decisions regarding response vaccination.

Psychiatric Treatment of a Health Care Worker After Infection With Ebola Virus in Lagos, Nigeria

Abdulaziz Mohammed, M.B.B.S., M.P.H.-F.E, Taiwo Lateef Sheikh, M.B.B.S., M.S.C., Saheed Gidado, M.B.B.S., M.P.H.-F.E., Ismail Adeshina Abdus-salam, M.B.B.S., M.P.H., Joseph Adeyemi, M.B.B.S., M.Sc., Adebola Olayinka, M.B.B.S., Chima Ohuabunwo, M.B.B.S., Orina Oluwagbemiga Victor, M.S.W., Patrick Nguku, M.B.B.S., M.P.H., Erinfolami Adebayo Rasheed, M.B.B.S., Funmi Doherty, M.S.W., M.P.H., Ndadilnasiya Waziri, D.V.M., M.P.H.-FE, Faisal Shuaib, M.D., Dr.P.H., Babalola Obafemi Joseph, M.B.B.S., Idris Mohammed Bomai, D.V.M., Akin Oyemakinde, M.B.B.S., M.P.H.

Epidemiological profile of the Ebola virus disease outbreak in Nigeria, July-September 2014

Introduction In July 2014, Nigeria experienced an outbreak of Ebola virus disease following the introduction of the disease by an ill Liberian Traveler. The Government of Nigeria with the support of Technical and Development Partners responded quickly and effectively to contain the outbreak. The epidemiological profile of the outbreak that majorly affected two States in the country in terms of person, place and time characteristics of the cases identified is hereby described. Methods Using field investigation technique, all confirmed and probable cases were identified, line-listed and analysed using Microsoft Excel 2007 by persons, time and place. Results A total of 20 confirmed and probable cases; 16 in Lagos (including the index case from Liberia) and 4 in Port Harcourt were identified. The mean age was 39.5 ± 12.4 years with over 40% within the age group 30-39 years. The most frequent exposure type was direct physical contact in 70% of all cases and 73% among health care workers. The total case-fatality was 40%; higher among healthcare workers (46%) compared with non-healthcare workers (22%). The epidemic curve initially shows a typical common source outbreak, followed by a propagated pattern. Conclusion Investigation revealed the size and spread of the outbreak and provided information on the characteristics of persons, time and place. Enhanced surveillance measures, including contact tracing and follow- up proved very useful in early case detection and containment of the outbreak.