Fanie Pelletier

The Evolutionary Demography of Ecological Change: Linking Trait Variation and Population Growth

Population dynamics and evolutionary change are linked by the fundamental biological processes of birth and death. This means that population growth may correlate with the strength of selection, whereas evolutionary change can leave an ecological signature. We decompose population growth in an age-structured population into contributions from variation in a quantitative trait. We report that the distribution of body sizes within a population of Soay sheep can markedly influence population dynamics, accounting for up to one-fifth of observed population growth. Our results suggest that there is substantial opportunity for evolutionary dynamics to leave an ecological signature and visa versa.

Early onset of vegetation growth vs. rapid green-up: impacts on juvenile mountain ungulates.

Seasonal patterns of climate and vegetation growth are expected to be altered by global warming. In alpine environments, the reproduction of birds and mammals is tightly linked to seasonality; therefore such alterations may have strong repercussions on recruitment. We used the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), a satellite-based measurement that correlates strongly with aboveground net primary productivity, to explore how annual variations in the timing of vegetation onset and in the rate of change in primary production during green-up affected juvenile growth and survival of bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis), Alpine ibex (Capra ibex), and mountain goats (Oreamnos americanus) in four different populations in two continents. We indexed timing of onset of vegetation growth by the integrated NDVI (INDVI) in May. The rate of change in primary production during green-up (early May to early July) was estimated as (1) the maximal slope between any two successive bimonthly NDVI values during this period and (2) the slope in NDVI between early May and early July. The maximal slope in NDVI was negatively correlated with lamb growth and survival in both populations of bighorn sheep, growth of mountain goat kids, and survival of Alpine ibex kids, but not with survival of mountain goat kids. There was no effect of INDVI in May and of the slope in NDVI between early May and early July on juvenile growth and survival for any species. Although rapid changes in NDVI during the green-up period could translate into higher plant productivity, they may also lead to a shorter period of availability of high-quality forage over a large spatial scale, decreasing the opportunity for mountain ungulates to exploit high-quality forage. Our results suggest that attempts to forecast how warmer winters and springs will affect animal population dynamics and life histories in alpine environments should consider factors influencing the rate of changes in primary production during green-up and the timing of vegetation onset.

Stochastic predation events and population persistence in bighorn sheep

Many studies have reported temporal changes in the relative importance of density-dependence and environmental stochasticity in affecting population growth rates, but they typically assume that the predominant factor limiting growth remains constant over long periods of time. Stochastic switches in limiting factors that persist for multiple time-steps have received little attention, but most wild populations may periodically experience such switches. Here, we consider the dynamics of three populations of individually marked bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) monitored for 24–28 years. Each population experienced one or two distinct cougar (Puma concolor) predation events leading to population declines. The onset and duration of predation events were stochastic and consistent with predation by specialist individuals. A realistic Markov chain model confirms that predation by specialist cougars can cause extinction of isolated populations. We suggest that such processes may be common. In such cases, predator–prey equilibria may only occur at large geographical and temporal scales, and are unlikely with increasing habitat fragmentation.

Sexual selection and social rank in bighorn rams

For many ungulates, male reproductive success increases with social rank. Because rank is established through contests, it should be correlated with individual mass and select for high sexual dimorphism in body mass. It is difficult to weigh free-ranging ungulates, however, so empirical data on the relation between mass and social rank are scarce. We monitored individual mass and social rank of marked bighorn rams, Ovis canadensis, at Sheep River, Alberta, Canada over 5 years. Each year, rams were organized in a linear hierarchy. Social rank increased with age, and rank in one year was a good predictor of rank in the next year. The stability of dyadic relationships increased with the difference in age of individuals in the dyad but decreased as rams aged. Until about 6 years of age, the positive effects of age and individual mass on social rank were indistinguishable, because rams gained mass each year. The relation between body mass and social rank strengthened with age, probably because, after the heavier rams attain their lifetime asymptotic weight, they can challenge older conspecifics. In mature bighorn rams, social rank is a major determinant of reproductive success. By providing evidence that mass is an important determinant of rank, our study supports the contention that sexual selection leads to high sexual dimorphism in this species.

Evidence for evolution in response to natural selection in a contemporary human population

It is often claimed that modern humans have stopped evolving because cultural and technological advancements have annihilated natural selection. In contrast, recent studies show that selection can be strong in contemporary populations. However, detecting a response to selection is particularly challenging; previous evidence from wild animals has been criticized for both applying anticonservative statistical tests and failing to consider random genetic drift. Here we study life-history variation in an insular preindustrial French-Canadian population and apply a recently proposed conservative approach to testing microevolutionary responses to selection. As reported for other such societies, natural selection favored an earlier age at first reproduction (AFR) among women. AFR was also highly heritable and genetically correlated to fitness, predicting a microevolutionary change toward earlier reproduction. In agreement with this prediction, AFR declined from about 26–22 y over a 140-y period. Crucially, we uncovered a substantial change in the breeding values for this trait, indicating that the change in AFR largely occurred at the genetic level. Moreover, the genetic trend was higher than expected under the effect of random genetic drift alone. Our results show that microevolution can be detectable over relatively few generations in humans and underscore the need for studies of human demography and reproductive ecology to consider the role of evolutionary processes.

Eco-evolutionary dynamics: disentangling phenotypic, environmental and population fluctuations

Decomposing variation in population growth into contributions from both ecological and evolutionary processes is of fundamental concern, particularly in a world characterized by rapid responses to anthropogenic threats. Although the impact of ecological change on evolutionary response has long been acknowledged, the converse has predominantly been neglected, especially empirically. By applying a recently published conceptual framework, we assess and contrast the relative importance of phenotypic and environmental variability on annual population growth in five ungulate populations. In four of the five populations, the contribution of phenotypic variability was greater than the contribution of environmental variability, although not significantly so. The similarity in the contributions of environment and phenotype suggests that neither is worthy of neglect. Population growth is a consequence of multiple processes, which strengthens arguments advocating integrated approaches to assess how populations respond to their environments.

Evidence for a genetic basis of aging in two wild vertebrate populations

Aging, or senescence, defined as a decline in physiological function with age, has long been a focus of research interest for evolutionary biologists. How has natural selection failed to remove genetic effects responsible for such reduced fitness among older individuals? Current evolutionary theory explains this phenomenon by showing that, as a result of the risk of death from environmental causes that individuals experience, the force of selection inevitably weakens with age. This in turn means that genetic mutations having detrimental effects that are only felt late in life might persist in a population. Although widely accepted, this theory rests on the assumption that there is genetic variation for aging in natural systems, or (equivalently), that genotype-by-age interactions (GxA) occur for fitness. To date, empirical support for this assumption has come almost entirely from laboratory studies on invertebrate systems, most notably Drosophila and C. elegans, whereas tests of genetic variation for aging are largely lacking from natural populations. By using data from two wild mammal populations, we perform quantitative genetic analyses of fitness and provide the first evidence for a genetic basis of senescence to come from a study in the natural environment. We find evidence that genetic differences among individuals cause variation in their rates of aging and that additive genetic variance for fitness increases with age, as predicted by the evolutionary theory of senescence.

Genetic correlation between resting metabolic rate and exploratory behaviour in deer mice (Peromyscus maniculatus).

According to the ‘pace‐of‐life’ syndrome hypothesis, differences in resting metabolic rate (RMR) should be genetically associated with exploratory behaviour. A large number of studies reported significant heritability for both RMR and exploratory behaviour, but the genetic correlation between the two has yet to be documented. We used a quantitative genetic approach to decompose the phenotypic (co)variance of several metabolic and behavioural measures into components of additive genetic, common environment and permanent environment variance in captive deer mice. We found significant additive genetic variance for two mass‐independent metabolic measures (RMR and the average metabolic rate throughout the respirometry run) and two behavioural measures (time spent in centre and distance moved in a novel environment). We also detected positive additive genetic correlation between mass‐independent RMR and distance moved (rA = 0.78 ± 0.23). Our results suggest that RMR and exploratory behaviour are functionally integrated traits in deer mice, providing empirical support for one of the connections within the pace‐of‐life syndrome hypothesis.

ESTIMATING THE FUNCTIONAL FORM FOR THE DENSITY DEPENDENCE FROM LIFE HISTORY DATA

Two contrasting approaches to the analysis of population dynamics are currently popular: demographic approaches where the associations between demographic rates and statistics summarizing the population dynamics are identified; and time series approaches where the associations between population dynamics, population density, and environmental covariates are investigated. In this paper, we develop an approach to combine these methods and apply it to detailed data from Soay sheep (Ovis aries). We examine how density dependence and climate contribute to fluctuations in population size via age- and sex-specific demographic rates, and how fluctuations in demographic structure influence population dynamics. Density dependence contributes most, followed by climatic variation, age structure fluctuations and interactions between density and climate. We then simplify the density-dependent, stochastic, age-structured demographic model and derive a new phenomenological time series which captures the dynamics better than previously selected functions. The simple method we develop has potential to provide substantial insight into the relative contributions of population and individual-level processes to the dynamics of populations in stochastic environments.

Evolutionary rescue in vertebrates: evidence, applications and uncertainty

The current rapid rate of human-driven environmental change presents wild populations with novel conditions and stresses. Theory and experimental evidence for evolutionary rescue present a promising case for species facing environmental change persisting via adaptation. Here, we assess the potential for evolutionary rescue in wild vertebrates. Available information on evolutionary rescue was rare and restricted to abundant and highly fecund species that faced severe intentional anthropogenic selective pressures. However, examples from adaptive tracking in common species and genetic rescues in species of conservation concern provide convincing evidence in favour of the mechanisms of evolutionary rescue. We conclude that low population size, long generation times and limited genetic variability will result in evolutionary rescue occurring rarely for endangered species without intervention. Owing to the risks presented by current environmental change and the possibility of evolutionary rescue in nature, we suggest means to study evolutionary rescue by mapping genotype → phenotype → demography → fitness relationships, and priorities for applying evolutionary rescue to wild populations.