Farrokh Nourzad

Inflation and Tax Evasion: An Empirical Analysis

This paper contains an analysis of the effect of inflation on aggregate tax evasion in the United States over the period 1947-81. It is found that tax evasion in both absolute and relative terms is positively related to the inflation rate. Further, the results indicate that aggregate evasion has risen in both absolute and relative terms with increases in the marginal tax rate, but has fallen with increases in the detection probability, the penalty rate, and the wage share of income. Finally, evasion has risen in absolute terms but has fallen in relative terms when real true income has risen.

Openness, Central Bank Independence, and the Sacrifice Ratio

Traditional explanations of the negative correlation between openness and inflation presume that an inverse relationship between the degree of openness and the sacrifice ratio reduces the inflation bias of descretionary monetary policy. Temple (2002) concludes, however, that such a relationship fails to emerge in cross-country data. Our analysis of the same cross-country data considered by Temple indicates that once the degree of central bank independence and its interaction with greater openness and the sacrifice ratio. In addition, increased openness lessens the positive effect of central bank independence on the sacrifice ratio.

Financial development and productive efficiency: A panel study of developed and developing countries

This paper uses a stochastic production frontier for panel data to investigate the effect of financial development on productive efficiency. Three panels of a number of countries in different stages of development are used along with eight alternative measures of financial development pertaining to the monetary sector, financial intermediaries, and equity markets. The results indicate that in general the more developed the financial intermediaries sector and equity markets, the higher the productive efficiency. In particular, financial deepening reduces productive inefficiency in both developed and developing countries, although the effect is larger in the former.

Public capital formation and productivity growth: Some international evidence

This paper examines the proposition that public capital spending fosters productivity growth in the private sector using a pooled sample of seven OECD countries over the 1963–1988 period. The results indicate that there is a statistically significant positive relationship between public capital formation and the growth rate of labor productivity. This result is not sensitive to whether there is constant returns to scale to some or all inputs, whether the stochastic formulation of the pooled model is a fixed- or a random-effect specification, whether the model includes an energy variable, or whether the data are expressed in the log-differenced or logarithmic form.

Do lower mortgage rates mean higher housing prices

Much research has shown that mortgage rates exert a negative influence on housing prices. This study analyses the long- and short-run relationships between housing prices and mortgage rates using advanced nonstructural estimation methods. As expected, a bivariate specification and a four-variable housing demand specification both show that these variables have a long-run relationship, and that there is a rather inelastic response of housing prices to changes in mortgage rates. However, contrary to previous research, the results from Granger non-causality tests, impulse response functions and variance decompositions reveal that there is virtually no short-run influence from mortgage rates to housing prices.

The Productivity Effect of Government Capital in Developing and Industrialized Countries

This paper uses an aggregate production function to examine the effect of government capital formation on growth of labour productivity in an annual panel of 12 developing and 12 OECD economies covering the period 1976–1989. The results from a pooled model of all 24 countries indicate that contribution of government capital to labour productivity is positive and statistically significant. This result also holds in separate samples of the industrialized and developing economies where we find that, while there are productivity differentials between the two types of economies with respect to private capital, there are no differences with regards to public capital.

Real money balances and production efficiency: a panel-data stochastic production frontier study

This paper examines the effect of four alternative measures of real money balances on production efficiency using annual panels of ten developed and ten developing countries. Using maximum likelihood, separate stochastic production frontiers are estimated, along with the parameters of an equation relating technical inefficiency to real money balances. The results for the sample of developed economies indicate that increases in real simple-sum M1, simple-sum M2, Divisia M1, and Divisia M2 enhance efficiency in the production sector. On the other hand, in the sample of developing nations, there is no evidence that real money balances reduce technical inefficiency.

Testing the Fisher Effect as a Long-Run Equilibrium Relationship

The recent advances in the econometrics of integrated time series by Johansen are applied to the much examined Fisher effect. While the existing literature is concerned with whether there is a stable long-run equilibrium relation between the nominal rate of interest and inflation, the existence of a one-to-one relation along this path is also tested. Moreover, it is found that in the long run there is a unidirectional causality from the inflation rate to the rate of interest. However, in the short-run there is a feedback (bi-directional causality) between the two variables.

Exchange Rate Volatility and the Demand for Money in the U.S.

Abstract This paper examines the effect of changes in the level and volatility of exchange rates on the demand for money. It hypothesizes that exchange rate volatility exerts a negative influence on money demand separate from the effect of the level of exchange rates. Using U.S. data covering the period from 1974.1 to 1990.4, it is found that, regardless of whether the adjustment process is modeled as an error-correction or a partial-adjustment model, exchange rate volatility is negatively related to the demand for real M2 balances. This relationship is found to be more pronounced when exchange rates are expressed in real terms. The results imply that money demand responds to both the volatility of domestic prices relative to foreign prices and to the volatility of nominal exchange rates. Little evidence is found in support of the hypothesis that the level of exchange rates exerts a significant influence on money demand.

Improving Local Manufacturing Employment Forecasts Using Cointegration Analysis

Procedures for tracking and forecasting economic conditions in regional economies have evolved significantly over the last 30 years. Much of this evolution has followed developments in macroeconomics, where techniques for tracking/forecasting key economic variables have tended to originate. This technique adoption and adaptation process continues today, as developments in the technique adoption and adaptation process continues today, as developments in the modeling of cointegrated macroeconomic time series have begun to appear in the regional modeling and forecasting literature. This paper presents an effort at modeling a segment of a regional economy using the cointegration testing procedures suggested by Johansen and Jusilius (1990) to develop a forecasting model for manufacturing employment in Milwaukee, WI. The paper demonstrates how Vector Error Correction (VEC) modeling can lead to gains in the accuracy of local manufacturing employment forecasts relative to more traditional VAR models in either levels or first-differenced form. In the process, it demonstrates procedures for developing a relatively simple VEC model that reveals something about the structure of the local manufacturing sector, including possible linkages to the national economy. This information can assist local policy makers in anticipating and adapting to business cycle-related fluctuations in this critical sector of the local economy.