Joseph P. Daniels

Openness, Central Bank Independence, and the Sacrifice Ratio

Traditional explanations of the negative correlation between openness and inflation presume that an inverse relationship between the degree of openness and the sacrifice ratio reduces the inflation bias of descretionary monetary policy. Temple (2002) concludes, however, that such a relationship fails to emerge in cross-country data. Our analysis of the same cross-country data considered by Temple indicates that once the degree of central bank independence and its interaction with greater openness and the sacrifice ratio. In addition, increased openness lessens the positive effect of central bank independence on the sacrifice ratio.

Trust in Others: Does Religion Matter?

Abstract Though the recent literature offers intuitively appealing bases for, and evidence of, a linkage among religious beliefs, religious participation and economic outcomes, evidence on a relationship between religion and trust is mixed. By allowing for an attendance effect, disaggregating Protestant denominations, and using a more extensive data set, probit models of the General Social Survey (GSS), 1975 through 2000, show that black Protestants, Pentecostals, fundamentalist Protestants, and Catholics, trust others less than individuals who do not claim a preference for a particular denomination. For conservative denominations the effect of religion is through affiliation, not attendance. In contrast, liberal Protestants trust others more and this effect is reinforced by attendance. The impact of religion on moderate Protestants is only through attendance, as frequency of attendance increases trust of others while the denomination effect is insignificant.

Policy undertakings by the seven “summit” countries: ascertaining the degree of compliance

Abstract This paper sifts through the economic-summit declarations, issued annually since 1975, to determine how credible the announced government commitments would have deserved to be, judging by the degree to which they have been fulfilled. Measuring compliance with fuzzy undertakings imposing imprecise obligations was assisted by fitting nonlinear membership functions to allow partial credit. The average scores assigned to the 203 undertakings that could be evaluated through 1989 were so low that the joint null hypothesis of “no summit ambition” and “no summit effect” could barely be rejected. However, there were notable differences by summit, country, and type of issue.

The determinants of immigration-policy preferences in advanced economies: A cross-country study

This paper employs survey data to examine the determinants of immigration-policy preferences among ten advanced economies. Ordered probit specifications suggest that skill level is a robust determinant of immigration-policy preferences and that less-skilled workers are more likely to express a preference for policies that restrict immigration. The results also suggest that older individuals, members of trade unions, and those who classify their political ideology as conservative are more likely to favor limiting immigration while non-citizens are less likely to favor such policies. Individual country-level regression results vary, in particular with regard to the influence of trade union member-ship, which is a robust determinant of immigration-policy preferences for both measures of skill in only a subset of nations.

Religious Affiliation and Individual International-Policy Preferences in the United States

Empirical examination of individual-level survey data on national identity, in general, reveals a significant relationship between religious affiliation and an individuals international-policy preferences and that this relationship varies across Protestant denominations. Specifically, we test attitudes toward import and immigration policies, the role of international institutions, and unilateral policy actions. The empirical results indicate that individuals affiliated with conservative Protestant denominations are more likely to support positions on international issues that can be regarded as consistent with the anti-globalist right. We also find evidence of a reinforcing regional effect among conservatives in the south, and differences in the preferences of Baptist and non-Baptist African Americans.

Two-Country Models of Monetary and Fiscal Policy: What Have We Learned? What More Can We Learn?

This paper surveys the literature that uses two-country models to analyze monetary and fiscal policy issues faced in interdependent economies. We discuss sources of structural interdependence that researchers typically include in these models. We describe many of the types of policy interactions that researchers have considered and summarize the key results that they have obtained. Finally, we briefly explain the limitations of two-country models and outline directions that this literature might usefully be extended.

Testing the Fisher Effect as a Long-Run Equilibrium Relationship

The recent advances in the econometrics of integrated time series by Johansen are applied to the much examined Fisher effect. While the existing literature is concerned with whether there is a stable long-run equilibrium relation between the nominal rate of interest and inflation, the existence of a one-to-one relation along this path is also tested. Moreover, it is found that in the long run there is a unidirectional causality from the inflation rate to the rate of interest. However, in the short-run there is a feedback (bi-directional causality) between the two variables.

Examining Megachurch Growth: Free Riding, Fit, and Faith

Megachurches are thriving in religious markets at a time when Americans are asserting their ability as consumers of religious products to engage in religious switching. The apparent success of megachurches, which often provide a low cost and low commitment path by which religious refugees may join the church, seems to challenge Iannocconne’s theory that high commitment churches will thrive while low commitment churches will atrophy. This paper employs a signaling model to illustrate the strategy and organizational forms megachurches employ to indicate a match between what the church produces and the religious refugee wishes to consume in an effort to increase their membership. The model illustrates that megachurches expect little in regard to financial or time commitment of new attendees. However, once the attendees perceive a good fit with the church, the megachurch increases its expectation of commitment. Data from the FACT2000 survey provide evidence in support of the model’s predictions.

Transportation Costs and US Manufacturing FDI

In empirical models of foreign direct investment (FDI), distance is most often used to proxy for transportation costs and other pure-trade costs. Given that distance is time invariant but transportation costs are not, this approach is less than satisfactory when actual transportation costs rise and fall over time.The contribution of this work is to explicitly control for transportation costs and thereby better understand their impact on FDI. We explore the impact of shipping costs on total US FDI stocks abroad, manufacturing stocks and service stocks using measures of sea-shipping and air-shipping costs in a Hausman–Taylor model that controls for endogeneity and allows for time-invariant variables such as distance. We find that transportation costs have a positive and statistically significant relationship with US total and manufacturing FDI, suggesting a substitute relationship between FDI and trade flows consistent with horizontal MNE activity. As one would expect, these costs are insignificant for service stocks.

Optimal sterilization policies in interdependent economies

Abstract In this paper, a two-country leader-follower model with imperfect asset substitution is used to derive the optimal sterilization coefficients for two-country flexible and fixed exchange rate regimes. It is found that, in general, incomplete sterilization is optimal. However, both the origin and the type of macroeconomic shocks the economies experience are important in determining the appropriate degree of sterilization. We also find that sterilization policies have spill-over effects (strategic complements) in both cases. Thus, in a competitive policy-making environment, greater sterilization by one country leads to greater sterilization by the other country. Further, the impact of increasing capital market integration is examined in particular. We show that greater integration compounds this problem, leading to full sterilization as the optimal outcome under perfect capital mobility.