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Analysis of energy security and sustainability in future low carbon scenarios for Brazil

This study estimated a series of indicators to assess the energy security of supply and global and local environmental impacts under different mitigation scenarios through 2050 in Brazil, designed with the integrated optimization energy system model MESSAGE‐BRAZIL. The assessment of interactions between environmental impacts and energy security dimensions was complemented through the application of life cycle assessment (LCA) methodology. Overall results imply energy security establishes more synergies than trade‐offs in increasingly stringent mitigation scenarios, especially patent within the sustainability dimension, which increases energy security and provides additional benefits regarding climate change mitigation and air pollution emissions. It is still necessary to extend analysis to other energy sectors in addition to the power supply sector and to promote a better understanding of repercussions of energy scenario expansion in energy security.

Discerning the factors explaining the change in energy efficiency

Due to the high rates of energy consumption and its impact on environment over the last decades, policy decision-makers are increasingly recognising the need to take actions that allow to address problems associated with the deployment of non-renewable resources and climate changes. One field of action has been the promotion of measures that contribute to improve energy efficiency of countries. The purpose of this study is to identify the main factors explaining changes in energy efficiency applying the multiplicative Log Mean Divisia Index decomposition method for a set of countries (Portugal, UK, Brazil and China) with different socio-economic background and energy mix. The results show that overall energy efficiency trends display different patterns between countries and the same happens within each country from a sectoral perspective. Major drivers of improvements of overall energy efficiency were the intensity effect and the affluence effect, whereas the driver that hampered those improvements was the energy consumption per capita. Some policy implications derived from the results achieved are: policy decision-makers should support measures that promote the adoption of energy-saving technologies resulting from new technological developments; policy measures should be directed to raise awareness of end-users regarding energy efficiency and energy conservation efforts; policy measures promoting economic growth through the development (or expansion) of sectors of activity that consume less energy can also be implemented; finally, policy instruments may also be used to reduce the costs of implementing energy efficiency and energy-saving measures to households and firms.

Energy sector: A cross-country resource and impact decoupling analysis

Traditionally energy consumption and economic growth have been closely related, in an unsustainable manner. However, common concerns with energy security and climate change has led developed and emerging countries to promote resource and impact decoupling to achieve energy sustainability. This paper presents a cross-country comparison of decoupling trends in order to assess the impact of economic growth on energy consumption and on energy-related CO2 emissions, between 1990 and 2013. Results show a greater decoupling dynamic between energy and carbon emissions as environmental pressures from GDP PPP than population as a driving force. Therefore policy-makers should take into consideration not only technical but also behavioural features to attain effective energy decoupling, regarding resource and impact aspects.

Energy indicators framework and climate change policy implications

Climate change related emissions have emerged as one of the adverse effects of unsustainable energy use, which poses the challenge of ensuring energy sustainability while accounting for climate change mitigation. In this paper, using the Energy Indicators for Sustainable Development framework, an assessment of GHG emissions trends along with national and international pledges for a set of developed (Portugal and United Kingdom) and developing countries (China and Brazil) is presented, contributing for an insightful comparison of countries that share a common cause, irrespective of their developmental stage. The preliminary results show that UK and China need to focus on the improvement of the renewable nature of their energy mix, whereas Portugal and Brazil need to focus more on measures that contribute to improve the efficient use of energy. Hence, environmental and energy intensity indicators together have allowed to emphasize aspects that would otherwise separately pass unnoticed.