Pedro R.R. Rochedo

Analysis of energy security and sustainability in future low carbon scenarios for Brazil

This study estimated a series of indicators to assess the energy security of supply and global and local environmental impacts under different mitigation scenarios through 2050 in Brazil, designed with the integrated optimization energy system model MESSAGE‐BRAZIL. The assessment of interactions between environmental impacts and energy security dimensions was complemented through the application of life cycle assessment (LCA) methodology. Overall results imply energy security establishes more synergies than trade‐offs in increasingly stringent mitigation scenarios, especially patent within the sustainability dimension, which increases energy security and provides additional benefits regarding climate change mitigation and air pollution emissions. It is still necessary to extend analysis to other energy sectors in addition to the power supply sector and to promote a better understanding of repercussions of energy scenario expansion in energy security.

The threat of political bargaining to climate mitigation in Brazil

In exchange for political support, the Brazilian government is signalling landholders to increase deforestation, putting the country’s contribution to the Paris Agreement at risk1. The President of Brazil has signed provisionary acts and decrees lowering environmental licensing requirements, suspending the ratification of indigenous lands, reducing the size of protected areas and facilitating land grabbers to obtain the deeds of illegally deforested areas2. This could undermine the success of Brazil’s CO2 emission reductions through control of deforestation in the previous decade. Integrated assessment models are tools to assess progress in fulfilling global efforts to curb climate change3,4. Using integrated assessment models developed for Brazil, we explore 2 °C-compliant CO2 emission scenarios estimating the effort needed in other sectors of the economy to compensate for the weakening of environmental governance, potentially resulting in higher deforestation emissions. We found that the risk of reversals of recent trends in deforestation governance could impose a burden on other sectors that would need to deploy not yet mature technologies to compensate for higher emissions from land-use change. The abandonment of deforestation control policies and the political support for predatory agricultural practices make it impossible to meet targets consistent with Brazil’s contribution to a 2 °C world.Political bargaining has the potential to reverse Brazil’s deforestation control efforts. Integrated assessment modelling shows that weaker environmental governance threatens the country’s ability to achieve emissions consistent with a 2 °C goal.

The role of CSP in Brazil: A multi-model analysis

MESSAGE, TIMES and REMIX-CEM are potential tools for modelling a larger penetration of variable renewable energy (VRE) into the Brazilian power system. They also allow devising the opportunities that concentrated solar power (CSP) plants offer to the power system and to the wider energy system. There are different opportunities for CSP in Brazil in the short and medium term, consolidating this technology as a feasible alternative for greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation in Brazil. This work verified that CSP is a cost-effective option only under very stringent mitigation scenarios (4DS and 2DS) and when carbon capture and storage (CCS) is not available. Still, according to the findings of REMIX-CEM-B, CSP can provide firm energy and dispatchable capacity in the Northeast region of Brazil, optimally complementing wind and PV generation. Moreover, CSP can offer additional flexibility to the Northeast power system, especially during winter and after 2030.

Geo.: Gas Production in Offshore Reservoirs in Brazil’s Pre-salt Region

This study is focused on the natural gas production in the pre-salt area, in Brazil, where much of the expansion of the Brazilian oil industry is projected to occur. The oil production is based on a previous study, which indicates that in 2050 the pre-salt oil production can reach up to 3,160,000 bpd, and the total Brazilian oil production can be up to 3,765,000 bpd. Simulations were made to try to estimate the natural gas production for the period between 2015 and 2050. One great challenge of the petroleum production in this area is to deal with the large amount of CO2 present in these fields. This study considered Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) as a mitigating option for the CO2 that would be emitted during the petroleum extraction. Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is recognised as a technology capable of reducing the large-scale emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), which is an important part of the portfolio of alternatives necessary to achieve significant reductions in the global emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG). This study identified that the most suitable carbon capture method for the platforms (Floating Production, Storage, and Offloading (FPSOs)) that will operate in Brazil’s pre-salt fields is the use of membranes. Based on this capture method (membranes), the UOP Separex™ module system is selected as the standard to be tested. It is a compact module that can be installed on FPSOs. Because there remains considerable uncertainty over the precise amount of CO2 present in the natural gas from the pre-salt fields, a wide range, between 10 and 45 %mol of CO2 content was considered. The membrane area for each module was considered to be equal for both 10 %mol and for 45 %mol of CO2. The results show that in 2050, the gas production in the pre-salt region can be around 35,000 Mm3 per year, considering that the amount of CO2 in the natural gas is 10 %mol. However, it can be up to 20,000 Mm3 when considering that the amount of CO2 present in the natural gas is around 45 % mol.

Interactions between global climate change strategies and local air pollution: lessons learnt from the expansion of the power sector in Brazil

This study examines the interactions between local air pollutants and greenhouse gas emissions to assess potential synergies and trade-offs between local environmental pollution and climate policies, using the power generation sector in Brazil under different carbon scenarios up to 2050 as a case study. To this end, an integrated approach was developed, combining energy scenarios under different carbon mitigation targets and a local air pollution assessment model, tailored to the context of the Brazilian power sector. Results reveal that there are deep interactions between climate change mitigation and local air pollution abatement strategies. Increasing the diffusion of low-carbon technologies results in both mitigation of climate change and lower terrestrial acidification potential impacts, due to the rapid phase-out of fossil fuel power technologies. However, local air pollution indicators for particulate matter formation and human toxicity may rise in response to greenhouse gas emission mitigation constraints, indicating the existence of potential trade-offs. Some of these trade-offs can be offset by introducing available end-of-pipe pollution control measures reinforced by dedicated air quality policies.

Evaluation of Carbon Capture Potential in the Brazilian Cement Sector

Cement industry has always been among the largest industrial CO2 emission sources, accounting for 7% of global CO2 emission from stationary sources. CCS technology appears as a major option, in addition to fuel saving and fuel switching measures, able to mitigate CO2 emissions. This study evaluates the potential application of carbon capture in the Brazilian cement sector. Among the CO2 capture technologies studied, the only commercially available for the existing cement plants in Brazil is based on the post-combustion capture route, relying on chemical absorption. To calculate the potential of retroffiting Brazilian cement facilities, it was assumed that the steam and power needed by the capture plant would be generated from a cogeneration plant with natural gas or petroleum coke, or a petroleum coke boiler or even a natural gas boiler would generate steam, and power would be purchased from the grid. Findings indicated an abatement cost hovering between

Will thermal power plants with CCS play a role in Brazil's future electric power generation?

114/tCO2 (in Southeast, South and Midwest of Brazil) and

Climate Policy Scenarios in Brazil: a Multi-Model Comparison for Energy

117/tCO2 (in North and Northeast). The gross potential equaled 47 MtCO2/year, being reduced to 31 MtCO2/year after discounting the fraction withouth water availability to implement a carbon capture facility.