Fatimah Mohamed Arshad

Spatial integration in the broiler market in Peninsular Malaysia.

The broiler sector in Peninsular Malaysia is marked by many structural elements of imperfect competition, particularly increasing vertical integration. This study adopts the Enders and Granger (1998) threshold autoregressive model to analyze market integration and pricing efficiency in the broiler sector. Results indicate that market integration exists in the broiler sector in spite of the structural rigidities that are present. However, asymmetries in price transmission are evident between the central market and regional wholesale markets.

Systems Thinking: System Dynamics

The concept of systems thinking was introduced in Chap. 1 and this chapter presents systems thinking based on systems approach. Systems thinking methodology, participatory systems thinking and systems thinking in action are presented to demonstrate the potentiality of systems thinking to study complex and dynamic systems. Participatory systems thinking is highlighted.

Modelling of Food Security in Malaysia

In the previous chapter, a case study on modelling and policy implication of hilsa fish population in Bangladesh has been presented. This chapter presents modelling of food security in Malaysia as a case study and application of system dynamics. The model is organised as (1) introduction, (2) dynamic hypothesis, (3) causal loop diagram, (4) stock–flow diagram, (5) model validation, (6) simulation and policy analysis and (7) conclusion. The findings suggest that gradual transition to bio-fertiliser, funding for R&D for development of high-yielding hybrid rice and increasing the cropping intensity hold big promise towards productivity enhancement. The promotion training and extension services using participatory approach of learning by doing or the farmer field schools are desirable to reduce the productivity gap.

Stock and Flow Diagram

The concept of stock–flow diagram was introduced in Chap. 2, and this chapter presents concepts, methodology and techniques of constructing stock–flow diagrams. The basic building blocks of the system structure, stock and flow, are explained. Delays and graphical functions are highlighted. Function with and without integrations is presented. A good number of examples are included to demonstrate the techniques of constructing the system structures in terms of stock–flow diagrams and simulation using the software STELLA.

Cost analysis of rice milling: a case study of 7 rice mills in Malaysia

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to examine the long-run profitability of rice milling operation in Malaysia and see how sensitive it is to changes in paddy purchases, rice recovery ratio and paddy price. Design/methodology/approach - Using a purposive sampling technique and semi-structured interviews, seven rice mills in Malaysia were selected to obtain data on operational details and business accounts. The paper provides a qualitative and descriptive account of the rice mill’s profitability by using cost curves, a simple linear regression and the Monte Carlo simulation. Findings - The rice milling operation in Malaysia is profitable in the long run, provided that there is a market for by-products. Large private mills have lower average costs, helping them obtain higher profit margins. Public mills that receive a rice miller subsidy are more protected than small private mills that operate without the rice miller subsidy and under price controls. Changes in paddy purchases, paddy price and recovery ratio affect the profitability to varying degrees. Research limitations/implications - Incomplete information provided by the interviewees. The analysis result is only a rough estimate. However, it may provide a useful insight into the Malaysian rice milling sector and its competitiveness. Originality/value - There are few economic studies of the rice milling sector in Malaysia. However, it plays an important role along the rice supply chain. There is a need for better understanding of the industry in order to obtain economic sustainability and effective policies. This paper provides the gap by providing an insight into the long-run profitability of rice milling operation in Malaysia.

Export performance and trade competitiveness of the Malaysian cocoa products

Malaysia cocoa beans have decreasing trend, on the other hand, export of cocoa products such as cocoa butter, cocoa powder and cocoa paste has increased significantly over the years, as Malaysia becomes one of the largest cocoa grinders in the world. However, continuous increase in price of cocoa may affect the Malaysian grinders industry since raw materials have become more expensive. Hence, Malaysia may have to think again on the decision of producing cocoa beans or cocoa products. The second question that needs to be addressed is: Does Malaysia has advantage to compete with other major exporting countries in cocoa beans or products? Thus, this study aims to investigate the competitiveness of Malaysia as compared to other major exporters of cocoa beans and cocoa products. Two instruments are used, that is, relative export advantage index (RXA) and constant-market-share (CMS). RXA measures comparative advantage for these products. CMS technique examines changes in Malaysia export position based on three separate effects, namely; size-of-market, distribution and competitiveness. RXA indicates that through 1991 to 2005, Malaysia has comparative advantage in cocoa butter and cocoa powder. The CMS analysis suggests positive total export gain for both commodities which is derived from competitive effect and size of market effect.

Exploring relationships between rubber productivity and R&D in Malaysia:

In recent decades, the Malaysian rubber sector has developed from a supplier of raw materials to a rubber-based manufacturing industry producing export products such as gloves and tyres. In contrast, the upstream rubber sector has experienced a declining trend in both plantation area and production capacity. In 2015, almost 95% of rubber producers were smallholders who depended on plantations as their main source of income. Despite government efforts to boost growth in the industry, the area and productivity have continued to decline. This study attempts to examine the structural factors that led to a decline in rubber area and natural rubber production and proposes strategies to enhance productivity and returns for smallholders. A system dynamics approach was used to capture the feedback relationships between variables in the rubber production system as well as the temporal lags and non-linearities. The findings suggest that gradual research and development funding for development of high-yielding clones holds major promise for yield improvement and increased income for smallholders.

Scenario Planning and Modelling

The models tested for building up confidence (as discussed in Chap. 6) should be used for scenario planning and modelling. This chapter presents scenario planning and modelling. Participatory system dynamics modelling and scenario planning are broadly discussed and the steps in scenario planning are highlighted. Also, policy planning for development strategy and implementation of development strategy and modelling are discussed. Some examples of scenario planning and modelling are presented.

Tests for Confidence Building

The models developed based on the concepts, methodology and techniques of system dynamics discussed in the earlier chapters must be tested to build up confidence in the models. This chapter presents the tests for confidence building in the system dynamics models. These tests are discussed under the broad heading of tests for structure, tests for behaviour and tests for policy implications. The logical sequences of conducting these testes are also presented.

Causal Loop Diagrams

The concept of causal loop diagram was introduced in Chap. 2, and this chapter presents concepts, methodology and techniques of causal loop diagrams. The cause–effect relationships and reinforcing and balancing loops are highlighted with examples. Steps to construct causal loop diagrams are provided. A good number of worked out examples are included to illustrate the techniques of constructing causal loop diagrams for dynamic systems.