Fausto Miziara

Modeling landscape dynamics in the central Brazilian savanna biome: future scenarios and perspectives for conservation

Recognized as one of the richest and most extensive savannas in the world, the Cerrado region, the second largest biome in South America, presents an intense and continuous human-induced land-cover change, which has already affected around 40% of its original area. In the pursuit of orientation and planning for current and long-term occupation, in this work we present plausible deforestation scenarios for the entire Cerrado biome, to 2050. Based on integration of spatial variables, such as terrain slope, climate, and infrastructure, we applied a multivariate and nonlinear modeling technique for the location of deforestation, assuming a business-as-usual scenario. Our results indicate an increase of the deforested areas by 13.5% until 2050 (compared to 2002, our initial landscape map), at an average decadal conversion rate of 40,000 km2. These potential landscape changes are more prominent in the biome’s northern and northeastern agricultural frontiers, where large land-use demands are expected, with direct impacts and threats to the region’s water resources, soil, and biodiversity.

Deforestation Hotspots in the Brazilian Amazon: Evidence and Causes as Assessed from Remote Sensing and Census Data

Abstract The main goal of this study, conducted in an area comprising 221 municipalities, in which 90% of the deforestation in the Legal Amazon takes place, was to understand the role of the agrarian structure in the conversion of forest into pasture and agriculture fields. Linear regression results indicate that 54%–62% of the variation in deforestation occurred between 1997 and 2004, respectively, and are explained as a function of changes in the amount of appropriated land in 1995. Likewise, up to 80% of the deforestation can be well explained by the variation in land concentration. In fact, strong spatial correlations were found between deforestation hotspots and land appropriation and land concentration. On the other hand, these critical areas have insufficient governance, particularly at the federal level. As the results of this study clearly demonstrate, strong governance and institutional integration, with emphasis on the territorial ordainment, are mandatory in order to reduce the rapid pace of d...

Considerations about the land use and conversion trends in the savanna environments of Central Brazil under a geomorphological perspective

Assuming that the landscape physiographic characteristics strongly determine the occurrence of land use and land cover types, this study assessed the distribution patterns of natural and converted classes in relation to the major geomorphological units and slope ranges in the central area of continuous savanna formations in Brazil (Cerrado biome), the country’s most important region for cattle ranching and intensive commodity crops. Our results showed that 93% of the agriculture activities are concentrated at slopes of less than 5°, mostly associated to old regional planation surfaces (RPSs). Considering the amount of remnant vegetation and the occupation and land use deterministic trends, we estimated that between 58,041 km2 and 79,677 km2 of conversions may occur in the near future. If the priority areas for biodiversity conservation are properly enforced and effectively incorporated into the system of fully protected areas and areas of sustainable use, a decrease of approximately 24% in the expected potential deforestation could be achieved.

DEVELOPMENT OF A TECHNOLOGICAL INDEX FOR THE ASSESSMENT OF THE BEEF PRODUCTION SYSTEMS OF THE VERMELHO RIVER BASIN IN GOIÁS, BRAZIL

This study analyzed the productive strategies and technology of beef producers in the Vermelho basin in Goiás, Brazil. The data were used to develop a technological index, applicable to the local beef production systems. The data were obtained using questionnaires. A set of 60 properties was selected to provide a representative sample of the relief and soil quality within the study area. The data were analyzed using multiple correspondence, cluster analysis, and beta regression procedures. The variables that most contributed to the definition of the technological level were identified. The variables and production units each formed three clusters, corresponding to three levels of technology: low, mid, and high. The data were used to calculate a predictive index for the analysis and mapping of the technology used in the study area. High cattle densities were found in systems with low technology, indicating low productivity and profitability, and reduced environmental sustainability.