Felix Fundel

MAP D-PHASE: Real-Time Demonstration of Weather Forecast Quality in the Alpine Region

Demonstration of probabilistic hydrological and atmospheric simulation of flood events in the Alpine region (D-PHASE) is made by the Forecast Demonstration Project in connection with the Mesoscale Alpine Programme (MAP). Its focus lies in the end-to-end flood forecasting in a mountainous region such as the Alps and surrounding lower ranges. Its scope ranges from radar observations and atmospheric and hydrological modeling to the decision making by the civil protection agents. More than 30 atmospheric high-resolution deterministic and probabilistic models coupled to some seven hydrological models in various combinations provided real-time online information. This information was available for many different catchments across the Alps over a demonstration period of 6 months in summer/ fall 2007. The Web-based exchange platform additionally contained nowcasting information from various operational services and feedback channels for the forecasters and end users. D-PHASE applications include objective model verification and intercomparison, the assessment of (subjective) end user feedback, and evaluation of the overall gain from the coupling of the various components in the end-to-end forecasting system.

Calibrated Precipitation Forecasts for a Limited-Area Ensemble Forecast System Using Reforecasts

Abstract The calibration of numerical weather forecasts using reforecasts has been shown to increase the skill of weather predictions. Here, the precipitation forecasts from the Consortium for Small Scale Modeling Limited Area Ensemble Prediction System (COSMO-LEPS) are improved using a 30-yr-long set of reforecasts. The probabilistic forecasts are calibrated on the exceedance of return periods, independently from available observations. Besides correcting for systematic model errors, the spatial and temporal variability in the amplitude of rare precipitation events is implicitly captured when issuing forecasts of return periods. These forecast products are especially useful for issuing warnings of upcoming events. A way to visualize those calibrated ensemble forecasts conveniently for end users and to present verification results of the return period–based forecasts for Switzerland is proposed. It is presented that, depending on the lead time and return period, calibrating COSMO-LEPS with reforecasts inc...