Fernando Ferrari Filho

As disfunções do capitalismo na visão de Keynes e suas proposições reformistas

Resumo: O artigo objetiva mostrar como a visao de mundo em Keynes se relaciona com suas proposicoes de politica economica e justifica sua atencao para a necessidade de uma acao efetiva do Estado para mitigar os problemas economicos e sociais inerentes a dinâmica operacional de economias monetarias. Nesse sentido, apos apresentar, a luz da concepcao de Keynes, como os agentes economicos se comportam e tomam decisoes em economias monetarias, as atencoes se voltam para a apresentacao das politicas keynesianas contraciclicas, fiscal e monetaria, fundamentais para assegurar o crescimento economico em nivel de pleno emprego e melhorar a distribuicao da renda e da riqueza. Palavras-chave : Keynes; economia monetaria; politica economica; intervencao economica. the dysfunctions of cApitAlism in Keynes’ view And his reformist proposAls

Regime cambial para países emergentes: uma proposição a partir de Keynes

Exchange rate regime for emergent countries: a Keynesian proposal - The article presents, in a Keynesian perspective, a proposal of exchange rate regime for emerging countries to assure macroeconomic stabilization, that is, price stability and full employment.

AS CONCEPÇÕES TEÓRICO-ANALÍTICAS E AS PROPOSIÇÕES DE POLÍTICA ECONÔMICA DE KEYNES

This article shows, in a chronological time, how the Keynesian revolutionary conceptions and theoretical proposals were developed in the main Keynes`s works.

CONSIDERAÇÕES SOBRE OS DETERMINANTES DO SPREAD BANCÁRIO NO BRASIL

The article aims to analyze the macroeconomic determinants of banking spread in Brazil. For this purpose, it was analyzed some theoretical models proposed by Thomas Ho and Anthony Saunders, among others, as well as it was developed an econometric analysis to show if the Inflation Targeting Regime and the Credit Information System affect the banking spread evolution.

Políticas comercial e cambial, vulnerabilidade externa e crescimento econômico: a experiência da economia brasileira a partir dos anos 1980

First, the paper analyses the performance of the trade and exchange rate policies in Brazilian economy since the 1980s, specifically in the post-Real Plan period. Second, it attempts to relate the different degrees of external vulnerability of the period with the behavior of economic growth rates in the Brazilian economy. Third, it proposes an economic agenda, based on counter-cyclical monetary and fiscal policies, a managed exchange rate, industrial policy and capital controls, to mitigate or eliminate Brazilian external vulnerability, which is so important to assure sustainable growth rate for Brazilian economy.

Excess Real Interest Rates and the Inflation Targeting Regime in Brazil: Monetary Policy Ineffectiveness and Rentiers’ Interests

Brazil has had, since the middle 1990s, one of the highest real interest rates in the world, yet not one of the lowest inflation rates. By the end of that decade, an inflation targeting regime (ITR) was introduced. Real interest rates have remained extremely high for international standards, while macroeconomic performance has been dismal on the same grounds. This article argues that these results can be explained by, among others reasons, pressures from the rentiers to frame monetary policy in a way to sustain very high interest earnings in a context where inflation is not very sensitive to monetary policy instruments. Under the ITR, the interest rate seems to have been kept above what would be required to maintain low inflation under normal conditions (even if one assumes a demand-pull inflation, which is not necessarily the case), with a potentially negative impact on growth and employment. This is interpreted as an indicator of monetary policy ineffectiveness. On the empirical ground, this article compares interest rate, inflation, unemployment, and real output growth for Brazil with both ITR and non-ITR countries selected by judgment sampling.

Monetary Institutions and Macroeconomic Performance in Brazil after the Global Financial Crisis of 2007–2008

This chapter analyses theoretically and empirically the relationship between monetary institutions and macroeconomic performance in Brazil, since the adoption of the Inflation Targeting Regime (ITR) in 1999. First, we present a brief theoretical discussion on the ITR, providing details of the Brazilian experience. Second, we discuss the determinants of inflation in Brazil. Finally, we discuss the main results of the VAR model.

Toward the crisis: a Kaleckian-Keynesian interpretation of the instability of growth and capital accumulation in Brazil

Abstract This article examines theoretically and empirically the instability of Brazilian investment and growth for the past couple of decades, highlighting the evolution that led to the current crisis. A theoretical discussion highlights the importance of Kaleckian and Keynesian approaches in understanding the semi-stagnation of the Brazilian economy since the 1990s. Empirical evidence shows that investment has increased until 2013, but not to the point of getting the economy back on the track of high growth rates and higher investment-GDP ratios. The econometric findings are compatible with the theoretical underpinnings of investment activity based on Keynes and Kalecki and suggest the existence of room for activist policies in Brazil in order to stimulate economic activity.

Padrões de crescimento e desenvolvimentismo: uma perspectiva keynesiano-institucionalista

Considering the controversy between new-developmentalism and social-developmentalism approaches, this paper aims at, on the one hand, showing that both approaches can be reconciled, and, on the other hand, proposing a Keynesian-Institutionalist strategy for assuring a sustainable economic growth for the Brazilian economy combined with monetary stability, fiscal and external equilibria and social inclusion.

EXISTE UMA BOLHA IMOBILIÁRIA NO BRASIL? UMA ANÁLISE TEÓRICA E EMPÍRICA

Based on the post-Keynesian theory, the article aims at verifying if there is a housing bubble in Brazil. First, we analyze the behavior of some specific indicators that, according to this theory, could show the existence of a housing bubble in the real estate. Secondly, econometric techniques are used to estimate an economic model to show the relationship between the housing price and changes in the fundamental variables or the possibility of speculative behavior of economic agents in the real estate. The article presents two main conclusions: on the one hand, our results show that the production costs and some fundamental variables are not enough to explain, in the last years, the housing prices in the Brazilian real estate; and, on the other hand, however it is possible to argue that credit behavior, financial position of households and general economic conditions corroborate to the existence of a housing bubble in the real estate.