Filippo Maria Pericoli

Overreaction in Survey Exchange Rate Forecasts

We use a novel database of a panel of quarterly survey of exchange rates forecasts available on the Bloomberg platform, for the following five bilateral exchange rates: EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY, EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY, for the timespan ranging from the third quarter 2006 up to the fourth quarter of 2011. We find that forecasters are on average irrational, failing to identify the true data generating process of bilateral exchange rates and generally overreacting to past observed information. Moreover, exploring individual performance, we can state that financial analysts irrationally do not look at their past forecast errors to improve the quality of their later forecasts.

Till labor cost do us part. On the long run convergence of EMU countries

A sustainable long-run pattern in the relative competitiveness of euro area countries is a key factor for the survivorship of the monetary union. We analyze the issue focussing on unit labor cost dynamics using cointegration analysis for the whole economy and for the manufacturing sector separately. Our findings show that the introduction of the euro has increased, rather than decreased, the distance among member countries, as measured in the metric of unit labor costs. Dispersion of productivity rather than wage compensation suggests that persisting idiosyncratic dynamics are driven by real factors, i.e. diverging technological patterns rather than by monetary factors, expressed by wage compensation.

Channels of risk-sharing at a micro level: savings, investments and the risk aversion heterogeneity

Applying the variance decomposition developed by Asdrubali et al. (1996), the paper explores for the first time the role and the extent of smoothing channels at a micro level using a sample of UK households. Our empirical analysis of British Household Panel Survey (BHPS) data concludes that the bulk of risk-sharing in the UK is driven by the savings channel. By allowing for risk aversion heterogeneity, we detect an inverted U-shaped relationship between risk aversion and the extent of smoothing achieved through financial markets. We also analyze the issue of risk-sharing by income, education levels and by region. We find that risk-sharing is more effective (higher) for individuals whose savings are more flexible, while it is less effective (lower) for individuals characterized by relatively more stable savings rate (like the Scottish population), regardless of their economic conditions.

A note on gravity models and international investment patterns

We show that recent methodological advances in econometric theory raise questions about the results obtained by some influential contributions on the determinants of international investment patterns, since the seminal paper by Lane and Milesi-Ferretti (2008) (LMF). In most such contributions, estimated equations are affected by heteroscedasticity, which may be shown to lead to inconsistent estimates in log-linearized models. Thus, the empirical findings of these works may need to be reassessed. By taking the results in LMF as a benchmark, we use a different methodology, which produces consistent estimates even under heteroscedasticity and report substantial differences with respect to the traditional methods. Moreover, we extend the data-set over time (over years from 2001 to 2009) to estimate a panel gravity model, which allows to properly account for unobserved heterogeneity through country-pair fixed effects and further improves on the cross-section analysis, by also reconciling empirical evidence with economic theory. Our panel estimates suggest the relevance of a diversification motive in driving international equity purchases.

Tax Incentives and Household Investment in Complementary Pension Insurance: Some Recent Evidence from the Italian Experience

We show, by a simple difference-in-difference methodology that, contrary to prior research, robustly raising the deductibility limit associated to pension fund holdings in Italy did not succeed in boosting households’ contributions to this form of savings. Some other empirical finding also suggest that this policy measure may have not even increased the average amount of first time contributors to such funds. In view of the specific features of the Italian market for complementary insurance (relatively young and less developed), these empirical results might be of interest to policymakers acting in countries with similar features (for instance, some of the more recent EU members).

The impact of social capital on consumption insurance and income volatility in U.K.: evidence from british household panel survey

On BHPS data we measure various indices of social capital at the individual and household level, and use them as explanatory variables in standard consumption insurance tests. We find that two out of three aspects of social capital positively impact on consumption smoothing, by reducing the sensitivity of idiosyncratic consumption to idiosyncratic income, both in the long and in the short run. Such effects, however, turn out to be more pronounced in the long run. Further confirmation of the positive impact of social capital on insurance opportunities are derived from an income smoothing exercise, as well as from a Poisson and a Logit analysis on the occurrence of unemployment spells.

International Investment Positions and Risk Sharing: An Empirical Analysis on the Coordinated Portfolio Investment Survey

We explore the determinants of bilateral portfolio investments and their dynamics by using data from nine waves of the IMF coordinated portfolio investment survey (CPIS). The main goal of our analysis is that of understanding whether a diversification motive can be found, among the various determinants. As diversification variable, we use the correlation between the idiosyncratic components of gross domestic product (GDP) growth and take into account unobserved heterogeneity by means of a country pair-fixed effect panel model. We find strong evidence that a diversification motive is relevant to explain bilateral portfolio holdings. It also turns out that investing in stocks of less synchronised partner economies contributes to income smoothing to some extent.