Francesca Pancotto

Amoral Familism, Social Capital, or Trust? The Behavioural Foundations of the Italian North-South Divide

We present the first laboratory‐in‐the field experiment on the Italian North–South divide. Using a representative sample of the population, we measure whether regional disparities in ability to cooperate emerge even if differences in geography, institutions and criminal intrusion are silenced. We report that a behavioural gap in cooperation exists: Northern and Southern citizens react differently to the same incentives. Moreover, this gap cannot be accounted for by tolerance for risk, proxies of social capital and ‘amoral familism’. At least a share of North–South disparities is likely to derive from persistent differences in social norms.

Pro-sociality and strategic reasoning in economic decisions.

We study the relationship between pro-social preferences and strategic reasoning. These aspects are typically studied separately but little is known about their joint distribution. In an experiment, for each participant we elicit individual concerns toward pro-sociality—inequality aversion and efficiency—as well as the number of steps of reasoning through a guessing game. We report that self-regarding and pro-social participants exhibit similar levels of strategic reasoning, which supports the view that pro-sociality and strategic reasoning can be studied independently.

Overreaction in Survey Exchange Rate Forecasts

We use a novel database of a panel of quarterly survey of exchange rates forecasts available on the Bloomberg platform, for the following five bilateral exchange rates: EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY, EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY, for the timespan ranging from the third quarter 2006 up to the fourth quarter of 2011. We find that forecasters are on average irrational, failing to identify the true data generating process of bilateral exchange rates and generally overreacting to past observed information. Moreover, exploring individual performance, we can state that financial analysts irrationally do not look at their past forecast errors to improve the quality of their later forecasts.

Till labor cost do us part. On the long run convergence of EMU countries

A sustainable long-run pattern in the relative competitiveness of euro area countries is a key factor for the survivorship of the monetary union. We analyze the issue focussing on unit labor cost dynamics using cointegration analysis for the whole economy and for the manufacturing sector separately. Our findings show that the introduction of the euro has increased, rather than decreased, the distance among member countries, as measured in the metric of unit labor costs. Dispersion of productivity rather than wage compensation suggests that persisting idiosyncratic dynamics are driven by real factors, i.e. diverging technological patterns rather than by monetary factors, expressed by wage compensation.

Norms of Punishment in the General Population

Norms of cooperation and punishment differ across societies, but also within a single society. In an experiment with two subject pools sharing the same geographical and cultural origins, we show that opportunities for peer punishment increase cooperation among students but not in the general population. In previous studies, punishment magnified the differences across societies in peoples ability to cooperate. Here, punishment reversed the order: with punishment, students cooperate more than the general population while they cooperate less without it. Our results obtained with students cannot be readily generalized to the society at large.

Is social capital associated with synchronization in human communication? An analysis of Italian call records and measures of civic engagement

Social capital has been studied in economics, sociology and political science as one of the key elements that promote the development of modern societies. It can be defined as the source of capital that facilitates cooperation through shared social norms. In this work, we investigate whether and to what extent synchronization aspects of mobile communication patterns are associated with social capital metrics. Interestingly, our results show that our synchronization-based approach well correlates with existing social capital metrics (i.e., Referendum turnout, Blood donations, and Association density), being also able to characterize the different role played by high synchronization within a close proximity-based community and high synchronization among different communities. Hence, the proposed approach can provide timely, effective analysis at a limited cost over a large territory.