Floor Brouwer

Mixed qualitative calculus as a tool in policy modeling: A dynamic simulation model of urban decline☆

Abstract Qualitative calculus of policy models is an appropriate method for policy impact analysis in the case of imprecise information concerning the structural model parameters. The conditions of the so-called sign-solvability analysis of a linear equation system—with information represented by a positive, negative, or zero impact—are strict, however. In this paper, the relevance of qualitative calculus for urban policy modelling is discussed. An extension of the sign-solvability approach (with purely qualitative information) will be dealt with in the case of a mixture of qualitative and quantitative information. We introduce the use of matrix decomposition methods, of theoretically plausible parameter restrictions, and of a top-down/bottom-up approach for sign-solvability. The sign-solvability approach is applied to a dynamic policy simulation model of urban decline in The Netherlands, developed for the city of The Hague. Given the insufficiently reliable database for estimating the model in a conventional econometric way, qualitative calculus was used in order to infer conclusions regarding the direction of impacts of policy variables.

Modeling Environmental-Economic Phenomena at a Regional Level: Methodological Progress

The availability and nature of information are important issues in modeling environmental-economic phenomena. This article addresses three types of limitation that may characterize such issues, including 1) insufficient precision of information for drawing reliable quantitative conclusions regarding policy aspects, 2) the wide variety of means of data gathering with their corresponding varying levels of measurement, and 3) the multivariate nature of environmental-economic phenomena. Various appropriate methodological tools have been developed over the past years to deal with such limitations. The relevance of the approaches will be illustrated for a regional-economic and environmental analysis of recreation.

Integrated regional economic-environmental modeling

Methodologies for analyzing multidisciplinary phenomena in an integrated way are becoming increasingly necessary due to a rise in the complexity of societies.