Floortje Alkemade

Analysing emerging innovation systems: a functions approach to foresight

The success of sustainable innovations depends in a large part on their environment, the Innovation System (IS). Insight into the structure and dynamics of the IS is thus of crucial importance in foresight studies and policy analysis. The analytical framework outlined in this paper allows us to study relations between the components, the structure and the functionality of the IS resulting in increased insight in (future) system behaviour and performance. Furthermore, mapping the (actor-independent) functions of the IS allows us to compare different cases, enabling timely and adequate policy measures through improved foresight. The application of our framework to the California Wind Energy Innovation System (CAWEIS) shows a relation between system structure and performance and gives us insight in system dynamics.

Managing the Diffusion of Low Emission Vehicles

There is significant uncertainty among technology providers, governments, and consumers about which technology will be the vehicle technology of the future. Governments try to stimulate the diffusion of low emission vehicles with diverse policy measures such as purchase price subsidies. However, the effect of such support measures on the speed and direction of technological change is unclear as different vehicle technologies might be preferred under different policy conditions. Decision makers, such as firm actors involved in green technology management, are thus strongly dependent on government policy when making strategic decisions. For these firm actors, determining their strategy regarding low emission vehicles is a complex task in a changing environment of coevolving consumer preferences, technology characteristics, and green technology policies. This paper presents an agent-based model of the competition between several emerging and market-ready low emission vehicle technologies and the dominant fossil-fuel-based internal combustion engine vehicles. The simulations illustrate the effects of different policy measures on technological change and their implications for the strategic actions of firm actors. More specifically, collaboration and standardization strategies can lead to synergies that contribute to technological change without risking early lock-in.

On social learning and robust evolutionary algorithm design in the cournot oligopoly game

Agent‐based computational economics (ACE) combines elements from economics and computer science. In this article, the focus is on the relation between the evolutionary technique that is used and the economic problem that is modeled. In the field of ACE, economic simulations often derive parameter settings for the genetic algorithm directly from the values of the economic model parameters.

Heterogeneous, Boundedly Rational Agents in the Cournot Duopoly

A Cournot duopoly market modeled as a co-evolving system of autonomous interacting agents is investigated. We present results for different types of boundedly rational agents. Agent types differ both in the complexity of their strategies and the information they have available to make their decision. Some types of agents use very simple strategies to make a production decision, while other types use a quite sophisticated decision rule. All agents types are tested in a round robin tournament. We consider the evolutionary stability of the evolving populations, especially with respect to the different equilibria of the Cournot game. Furthermore, we investigate the performance of the different agent types under changing market conditions.

On social learning and robust evolutionary algorithm design in economic games

Agent-based computational economics (ACE) combines elements from economics and computer science. In this paper, the authors focused on the relation between the evolutionary technique that is used and the economic problem that is modeled. In the field of ACE, economic simulations often derive parameter settings for the genetic algorithm directly from the values of the economic model parameters. In this paper, two important approaches that are dominating in ACE were compared and showed that the above practice may hinder the performance of the GA and thereby hinder agent learning. More specifically, it is shown that economic model parameters and evolutionary algorithm parameters should be treated separately by comparing the two widely used approaches to social learning with respect to their convergence properties and robustness. This leads to new considerations for the methodological aspects of evolutionary algorithm design within the field of ACE. Improved social (ACE) simulation results were also presented for the Cournot oligopoly game, yielding (higher profit) Cournot-Nash equilibria instead of the competitive equilibria.

Intermediaries in an electronic trade network [Extended Abstract]

We investigate whether intermediaries can make a profit in an information economy. We use evolutionary agent-based simulations to address this issue. We model a trade network game where boundedly rational consumers have to decide which links to form to sellers (profit maximizing producers or intermediaries). Our main conclusion is that intermediaries that have better knowledge about the market than the average consumer will continue to exist and make a profit if market dynamics are sufficiently complex.

Coordinate green growth

Green economic growth needs a shared sense of direction if it is to lead to a more sustainable future under climate change. Studies on green innovation and societal transformation show that uncoordinated initiatives are unlikely to be an effective way “to get the ball rolling and to ‘learn by doing’” (Nature 468, 477; 2010). First, socio-technical transformations, such as the transition from fossil fuels to renewable-energy sources, will require several decades to complete. Speeding up this process needs focus and coordination at the international level. Second, the learning curves for creating energy-efficient and renewable-energy technologies are global. Here, coordination will be necessary to determine cost reductions and to increase performance. Third, green growth calls for major shifts in the way in which economies are organized. It is not trivial to align the interests of fossil-fuel-intensive incumbent industries and their supporting power structures with the interests of emerging ‘green’ industries. Again, coordination will be necessary to overcome the resistance to change in incumbent production and consumption systems.

Innovation at the end of the life cycle: discontinuous innovation strategies by incumbents

Abstract This paper focuses on the strategies of incumbents that seek to develop discontinuous innovations within the boundaries of a mature innovation system. Mature innovation systems do not provide support for these discontinuous innovations. This article focuses on exploring why incumbents in these setting engage in discontinuous innovation and what strategies they deploy to become successful. We analyse 10 cases of incumbents developing discontinuous innovations in the mature Dutch greenhouse horticulture sector. The results of our analysis show that the incumbents are primarily triggered by dissatisfaction with the current way of doing business and that the existing institutions are the main barrier to discontinuous innovation. In response, the incumbents try to circumvent the existing innovation system in their innovation process, but when successful also engage in changing the existing innovation system. This paper contributes to the understanding of the role of incumbents as source of discontinuous innovation in mature innovation systems.

Radical Innovation Strategies of Environmental-Technology Entrepreneurs in the Dutch Greenhouse Horticulture Sector

Purpose – The purpose of this study is to gain insights into strategies used by entrepreneurs developing radical innovations to influence the system surrounding them. Specific attention is given to determine the differences between environmental-technology entrepreneurs (ETEs) and non-eco radical innovation entrepreneurs. Methodology/approach – Ten entrepreneurs (five ETEs) in the Dutch greenhouse horticulture sector are selected for this case study. Their motivations and strategic actions are determined through interviews. The results are analysed using an innovation system function approach. Findings – Radical innovations in the sector encounter barriers due to the lack of relevant knowledge and subsidies that support the old system. To overcome this, the studied entrepreneurs focus their strategies on building new innovation systems. Interestingly, ETEs receive more governmental support and try to improve the sector as a whole. However, sustainability alone is not enough to create added value. Social implications – Policy makers can provide better support for radical innovations by increasing the availability of relevant knowledge and creating a level playing field. Alternatively, they can present these pioneering entrepreneurs as examples for others to follow. Sustainability has been important in the sector for some time, but until now has not changed the nature of business. Originality/value of paper – In innovation systems research, the micro-level actions of entrepreneurs have not received much attention. Furthermore, the insights regarding motivations and strategies of radical innovation entrepreneurs in the context of a mature system are novel. Finally, the results regarding barriers for ETEs are an original addition to the theory of barriers for eco-innovations.