Marko P. Hekkert

R&D portfolios in environmentally friendly automotive propulsion: variety, competition and policy implications

In this article, we analyze R&D portfolios in environmentally friendly automotive propulsion including alternative fuel options. We argue that at the current stage of development, substitution of conventional car technology by a new automotive propulsion technology may lead to premature lock-in of suboptimal technology. To avoid such lock-in, one should value the variety of current R&D activity that enables organizations to learn from multiple options and to create spillovers between options. We further argue that the existence of technological variety is not a sufficient condition to avoid lock-in. Organizational variety is also required to sustain competition and avoid the dominance of few firms that possibly enforce a suboptimal technology within the sector. To assess whether recent developments in R&D have led to both technological variety and organizational competition, we analyze United States Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO) patents in low-emission vehicles (LEVs) during the period 1980–2001 using entropy statistics. Results show that both technological variety and organizational competition have increased steadily since the early nineties, suggesting that premature lock-in is unlikely to occur. From an environmental policy evaluation perspective, we consider the findings as a positive evaluation of the 1990 Californian Low Emission Vehicle program.

Explaining the success of emerging technologies by innovation system functioning: the case of biomass digestion in Germany

Abstract We examine the view that the success of emerging technologies may be understood using a technological innovation systems analysis, drawing on a system functions approach. This is done in the context of a case study of the successful diffusion of biomass digestion technology in Germany. We show that that all system functions that are claimed to be important within the innovation systems approach are present in the German Biomass Innovation System; and that these system functions positively interact leading to virtuous cycles and a rapid growth of the German Biomass Digestion Innovation System.

Wood innovation in the residential construction sector; opportunities and constraints

We study the opportunities to increase the use of wood in the Dutch residential construction sector and assess the effects on material related CO2 emission. Four house types are modeled with increasing quantities of wood used in constructions. CO2 emission reductions of almost 50% are technically possible. We assess the innovation characteristics of these wood applications to create insights in the complexity of the necessary change process. Then we relate the innovation characteristics of the wood options to the context in which implementation of the technologies take place. The options vary strongly in the required technical and network changes and so do the opportunities to implement them. Based on this we expect that a 12% CO2 emission reduction related to material use for residential buildings is possible in the short term by an increased share of wood use. We also study the possibilities for increased wood recycling practices. A large technical potential exists. To achieve this potential a significant policy effort is needed since significant changes in both technical and network dimensions are necessary. To stimulate innovation in the use of wood in residential construction, important focus points of policy making should be the culture in the Dutch construction sector, the way new building projects are commissioned, research areas within the building sector, and stabilization of building networks.

Analysing emerging innovation systems: a functions approach to foresight

The success of sustainable innovations depends in a large part on their environment, the Innovation System (IS). Insight into the structure and dynamics of the IS is thus of crucial importance in foresight studies and policy analysis. The analytical framework outlined in this paper allows us to study relations between the components, the structure and the functionality of the IS resulting in increased insight in (future) system behaviour and performance. Furthermore, mapping the (actor-independent) functions of the IS allows us to compare different cases, enabling timely and adequate policy measures through improved foresight. The application of our framework to the California Wind Energy Innovation System (CAWEIS) shows a relation between system structure and performance and gives us insight in system dynamics.

Cumulative causation in biofuels development : a critical comparison of the Netherlands and Sweden

Supporting the development and diffusion of sustainable innovations has become a dominant topic on the political agenda of many countries. However, this has proven to be a difficult task. To increase insight in such processes, this paper takes biofuel technologies in the mobility sector as the topic of a comparative case study. Various national governments have supported innovation trajectories around biofuels. We analyse, assess and compare two such trajectories as they have developed so far: one in the Netherlands and one in Sweden. A Technological Innovation System (TIS) approach is applied. A TIS is constituted by actors, networks and institutions, that are to be gradually constructed around a technology. We analyse whether governments and entrepreneurs have succeeded in developing seven key processes, or system functions, necessary for the development and diffusion of biofuel technologies. By analysing the build-up of system functions over time we identify virtuous and vicious forms of cumulative causation. The Dutch and Swedish TISs for biofuels are followed from 1990 to 2005. Our comparison shows that, due to the fulfilment of system functions and the emergence of cumulative causation, the Swedish TIS has reached a market expansion and broad social implementation of biofuels, whereas the Dutch TIS has established considerably less.

Analysis of the paper and wood flow in The Netherlands

Abstract Current production structures require large amounts of primary materials and are not likely to be sustained without large implications for the environment. A good understanding of societal metabolism is likely to contribute to more sustainable production and consumption. Material flow analysis (MFA) intends to support this understanding by providing insight in material flows. In this article a new method for analyzing materials flows, called STREAMS, is tested. The method is applied to analyze the paper and wood flow through the economic system of The Netherlands. The method is based on data available from the so-called supply and use tables; these tables are made available by Statistics Netherlands and describe the economy of a country in terms of annual supply and use of goods and services by industries and consumers. The method proves to be very useful in analyzing the paper and wood flow in The Netherlands. The method provides detailed information about the final consumption of paper and wood, even for packaging materials and product parts made out of paper and wood. Trends are visible that statistical offices collect less physical data about material flows. This will make the construction of material flow analyses like this one more difficult in the future.

Policies for the Energy Technology Innovation System (ETIS)

The development and introduction of heat pumps provides an interesting illustration of policy influence and effectiveness in relation to energy technology innovation. Heat pumps have been supported by several countries since the 1970s as a strategy to improve energy efficiency, support energy security, reduce environmental degradation, and combat climate change. Sweden and Switzerland have been essential to the development and commercialization of heat pumps in Europe. In both countries, numerous policy incentives have lined the path of technology and market development. Early policy initiatives were poorly coordinated but supported technology development, entrepreneurial experimentation, knowledge development, and the involvement of important actors in networks and organisations. The market collapse in the mid 1980s could have resulted in a total failure ‐ but did not. The research programmes continued in the 1980s, and a new set of stakeholders formed ‐ both publicly and privately funded researchers, authorities, and institutions ‐ and provided an important platform for further development. In the 1990s and 2000s, Sweden and Switzerland introduced more coordinated and strategic policy incentives for the development of heat pumps. The approaches were flexible and adjusted over time. The policy interventions in both countries supported learning, successful development and diffusion processes, and cost reductions. This assessment of innovation and diffusion policies for heat pump systems can be used to generalise some insights for energy technology innovation policy.

Perceived uncertainties regarding socio-technological transformations: towards a framework

Socio-technological transformations are difficult to achieve. Perceived uncertainties that hinder the innovation decisions of involved actors play a key role in this process. Determining how perceived uncertainties differ between types of actors and between transformation phases (pre-development, take-off, acceleration, stabilisation) can provide essential insights for managing such transformations. This article aims at presenting a framework for analysing the role of uncertainties in socio-technological transformations. In this framework, we classify uncertainties according to their source (technology, resources, competitors, suppliers, consumers, politics), nature (knowledge, variability) and level (low to high) and relate this uncertainty typology to the different transformation phases and involved actors. Finally, we discuss implications for policy.

Optimization of the final waste treatment system in the Netherlands

Abstract The potential for optimizing, in both economic and energetic terms, the final waste treatment system in the Netherlands is evaluated in the light of the performance of new technologies. Projections of the final waste supply and waste treatment technologies are combined to construct several scenarios for waste treatment in the year 2010. Technologies include processes currently in the demonstration or pilot phase. It is concluded that final waste treatment could be performed at lower cost and with substantially greater energy recovery than at present. In a minimum cost scenario, the final waste treatment might cost 300–600 MECU/year, compared to 1000–1600 MECU/year in a reference scenario, on the assumption that conventional, but improved waste treatment technologies are used. A maximum energy recovery scenario might save 80–90 PJ primary energy per year compared to 39–47 PJ/year for the reference case. Two major competing technologies are gasification, both for biomass waste and integral waste, and fluidized bed incineration. Further development of these technologies integrated with electricity production is recommended.

Assessment of the plastic flows in The Netherlands using STREAMS

The STREAMS method, a method for material flow analysis based on national supply and use tables, is examined in an assessment of the flows of plastics in The Netherlands, for the reference year 1990. The method proves to be a powerful tool to get a total overview of plastic flows in The Netherlands. Using the method, it is possible to obtain a highly detailed view on the final consumption of materials, for which hitherto only highly aggregated estimates were available. With the STREAMS method, total final plastics consumption in The Netherlands in the year 1990 is calculated at 1260 kt, which fairly matches other estimates in literature. The STREAMS method also provides information on the final consumption of plastics on lower aggregation levels, e.g. the final consumption of plastics divided between industry sectors, split up between packaging, components and final products. Our calculations show that with regard to plastics in The Netherlands, apparent consumption, calculated as raw materials production plus imports minus exports, although easily calculable, is a rather poor approximation for final consumption. Several issues that affect the accuracy of the results of the STREAMS method are discussed and estimates are made of their contributions to the mean deviation of the results. Total mean deviation is calculated at ±30% for results presented on lower aggregation levels. On higher aggregation levels the accuracy of the results is much higher.