Francesco Busato

Money Laundering in a Two Sector Model: Using Theory for Measurement

This paper implements a methodology that exploits firms and households’ optimality conditions to measure money laundering for the Italian economy. This approach, first implemented by Ingram et al. (J Monet Econ 40:435–436, 1997) to the household production sector, and by Busato et al. (Using theory for measurement: an analysis of the behaviour of underground economy working paper, Aarhus University, 2006) for measuring the underground economy, allows to generate high frequency time-series for money laundering using a theoretical two-sector dynamic general equilibrium model calibrated over the sample 1981:01–2001:04. The analysis of the generated series suggests two main results. First, money laundering accounts for approximately 12 percent of aggregate GDP; second, money laundering is more volatile than aggregate GDP and it is negatively correlated with it.

Money Laundering in a Microfounded Dynamic Model: Simulations for the U.S. and the EU-15 Economies

This paper explores the ability of a class of two-sector dynamic general equilibrium models to generate equilibrium time series for Money Laundering (ML), through numerical simulations in accordance with the works of Ingram, Kocherlakota and Savin (1997), Busato, Chiarini and Di Maro (2006), and Argentiero, Bagella and Busato (2008). The paper adopts this approach for the US and the EU-15 economies. The simulations show that ML accounts for 19 percent of GDP in the EU-15 economy, while it accounts for 13 percent in the US economy over the sample 2000:01-2007:04. Moreover, the ML simulated for the EU-15 is less volatile (relative standard deviation to GDP is 0.288 compared to a figure of almost 0.4 for the US economy), and negatively correlated with respect to GDP. The latter statistic is positive for the US economy.

Indeterminacy, Underground Activities and Tax Evasion

This paper introduces underground activities and tax evasion into a one sector dynamic general equilibrium model with external effects. The model presents a novel mechanism driving the self-fulfilling prophecies, which is triggered by the reallocation of resources to the underground sector to avoid the excess tax burden. This mechanism differs from the customary one, and it is complementary to it. In addition, the explicit introduction of an (even tiny) underground sector allows to reduce the aggregate degree of increasing returns required for indeterminacy, and for having well behaved input demand schedules (in the sense they slope down).

Equilibrium Implications of Fiscal Policy with Tax Evasion

This paper studies equilibrium effects of fiscal policy within a dynamic general equilibrium model where tax evasion and underground activities are explicitly incorporated. There are three main results. (i) The underground sector mitigates the distortionary impact of fiscal policies, while lessening the drop (rise) of aggregate production after restrictive (expansionary) tax shifts. In this respect, tax evasion and the informal economy offer a channel for insuring income and consumption from distortions generated by fiscal policy. (ii) Tax evasion and underground economy can completely reverse the theoretical predictions of the standard neoclassical growth model and rationalize expansionary responses to contractionary fiscal policies. (iii) A dynamic general equilibrium with tax evasion gives a rational justification for a variant of the Laffer curve.

Steady State Laffer Curve with the Underground Economy

This paper studies equilibrium effects of fiscal policy within a dynamic general equilibrium model where tax evasion and underground activities are explicitly incorporated. In particular, we show that a dynamic general equilibrium with tax evasion may give a rational justification for a variant of the Laffer curve for a plausible parameterization. In this respect, the paper also identifies the different parameterization of the model formulation with tax evasion under which a Laffer curve exist. From a revenue maximizing perspective, the key policy messages are that bringing tax payers to compliance would be better than announcing to punish them if convicted, and that an economy without problems of compliance is much more sensitive to myopic behavior.

Relative Demand Shocks

This paper introduces the concept of relative demand shocks into a multi-sector dynamic general equilibrium model. Relative demand shocks change the instantaneous structure of preferences. Under relative demand shocks consumer tastes randomly shift across different commodities, as manifested by unexpected relative increases or decreases in the marginal utility of the various consumption goods. There are no exogenous technology (productivity) shocks in the model. There are three main results. First, the model proposes an original theoretical mechanism for generating aggregate fluctuations and sectoral comovement by using inter-sectoral and idiosyncratic shocks. This mechanism is complementary to the standard Real Business Cycle theory. Second, the model is effectively able to reproduce the main stylized facts of the U.S. economy, also those that the standard Real Business Cycle model fails to explain. Third, the model generates a false Solow Residual, even though there is no technological progress in the model. Its size and time series properties are analogous to the actual Solow Residual.

Using Theory for Measurement: An Analysis of the Behaviour of the Underground Economy

This paper generates high frequency data for the underground labor and the underground production using a theoretical general equilibrium model, over the sample 1970:01-1992:04 (32 years; 128 observations). We compare selected time series properties of the generated series with those of the corresponding series estimated with classical methodologies. The generated series for underground labor and underground production present a wider range and are more volatile than all other series estimated with classical methodologies. The analysis, next, suggests that the underground labor is pro-cyclical with respect to the GDP, that is lagging it by approximately one quarter, and that underground labor series generated from the theoretical model are highly persistent. Finally, the estimated correlation between the cyclical component of our generated-from-theory underground labor productivity and the actual series of aggregate GDP is negative (-0.34), while official yearly estimates present a positive (but very low) correlation with the cyclical component of GDP (0.12). This suggests that the underground sector has a positive impact over the productivity at the business cycle frequency, while it dampens productivity fluctuations at a lower frequency.

Capital Subsidies and the Underground Economy

In this paper we investigate the effects of different fiscal policies on the firm choice to produce underground. We consider a tax evading firm operating simultaneously both in the regular and in the underground economy. We suggest that such a kind of firm, referred to as moonlighting firm, is able to offset the specific costs usually stressed by literature on underground production, such as those suggested by Loayza (1994) and Anderberg et al. (2003). Investigating the effects of different fiscal policy interventions, we find that taxation is a critical parameter to define the size of capital allocation in the underground production. In fact, a strong and inverse relationship is found, and tax reduction is the best policy to reduce the convenience to produce underground. We also confirm the depressing effect on investment of taxation (see, for instance, Summers, 1981), so that tax reduction has no cost in terms of investment. By contrast, the model states that while enforcement is an effective tool to reduce capital allocation in the underground production, it also reduce the total capital stock. Moreover, we also suggest that the allowance of incentives to capital accumulation may generate, in this specific typology of firm, some unexpected effects, causing, together with a positive investment process, also an increase in the share of irregularity. This finding could explain, in a microeconomic framework, the evidence of Italian southern regions, where high incentives are combined with high irregularity ratios.

Consumption and income smoothing

This article presents a two-sector dynamic general equilibrium model in which income smoothing takes place within the households (intra-temporally), and consumption smoothing takes place among the households (inter-temporally). Idiosyncratic risk-sharing within the family is based on an income smoothing contract. There are two-sectors in the model, the regular sector and the underground sector, and the smoothing comes from the underground sector, which is countercyclical with respect to aggregate GDP. The article shows that the simulated disaggregated consumption and income series (that are the regular and underground consumption flows) are more sensitive to exogenous changes in sector-specific productivity and tax rates than regular and underground income flows, and that this picture is reversed when the aggregate series are considered.

Fiscal Policy under Indeterminacy and Tax Evasion

This paper shows under indeterminacy and tax evasion, an increase in corporate, labor or income tax rates pushes the economy into an expansionary pattern. These effects are reversed when the steady state is saddle-path stable.