Francesco Calderoni

Where is the mafia in Italy? Measuring the presence of the mafia across Italian provinces

This article presents the Mafia Index (MI), an index measuring the presence of mafias at the provincial level. In the abundant literature on Italian mafias, relatively few studies have attempted to measure the presence of mafias across the country. A review of previous attempts points out the limitations and methodological shortcomings of existing measurements. The study provides an operational definition of ‘mafia’ and selects the most appropriate indicators and variables according to multiple criteria. The MI combines data on mafia-type associations, mafia murders, city councils dissolved for infiltration by organised crime, and assets confiscated from organised crime and covers the period between 1983 and 2009. The MI highlights not only the strong concentration of the mafias in their original territories but also their significant presence in the central and northern provinces. This confirms that mafias should not be regarded as typically Southern Italian phenomena, but rather as a national problem.

Not only banks: criminological models on the infiltration of public contracts by Italian organized crime

Purpose – The paper aims at expanding knowledge on the presence of organized criminal groups in public contract procurement in the south of Italy. It seeks to highlight how the capabilities of law enforcement agencies could be enhanced by means of criminological models.Design/methodology/approach – The paper sets out a criminological model with which to assess the general and specific risks of the infiltration of public procurement in the south of Italy by organized crime (OC).Findings – According to the geographical risk assessment, infiltration by OC of public procurement seems to be widespread in some areas of south Italy, especially Sicily, Calabria and Campania. On the other hand, the specific risk may increase according to certain features of the company and its representatives, the value of the contract, the low specialization of the activities required by the public contract.Originality/value – The paper describes a criminological model with which to assess the general and specific risk of infiltr...

Identifying Mafia Bosses from Meeting Attendance

Law enforcement agencies have frequently shown skepticism toward the results of the application of social network analysis to organized crime. Indeed, most studies to date have analyzed data (e.g. telephone intercepts) whose content was already well-known to the practitioners. Shifting the focus to data on mafia meetings, this chapter explores whether network analysis can identify the bosses in a large mafia network. The analysis relies on data from a large-scale investigation on the presence of the ‘Ndrangheta, a mafia from the Southern Italian region of Calabria. Operation Infinito identified several mafia families and tracked a number of mafia meetings. The results show that betweenness centrality is the most significant predictor of leadership in the mafia. A logistic regression model, using network measures as predictors, is able successfully to predict the position (boss or other) of 92 % of the individuals in the network. If supported by further studies, network analysis of meetings may provide law enforcement agencies with information useful for identifying the bosses of criminal organizations.

A new method for estimating the illicit cigarette market at the subnational level and its application to Italy

This study provides a methodology with which to estimate the volumes and revenues of the illicit cigarette market at the subnational level. It applies the methodology to Italy for a 4-year period (2009–2012), enabling assessment of the prevalence of the illicit trade across years and regions. Notwithstanding the alleged importance of mafias, the results provide a more complex picture of the Italian illicit tobacco market. The maximum total revenues from the illicit trade in tobacco products (ITTP) increased from €0.5 bn in 2009 to €1.2 bn in 2012. The prevalence of illicit cigarettes varies significantly across regions, because of the proximity to countries with cheaper cigarettes and the possible occurrence of other crime opportunities. Understanding of these factors is crucial for the development of appropriate policies against the ITTP. The methodology may be applicable to all other EU countries, providing detailed, yearly estimates of the illicit market at the subnational level.

Mythical numbers and the proceeds of organised crime: estimating mafia proceeds in Italy

Organised crime is a field vulnerable to mythical numbers, i.e. exaggerated estimates lacking empirical support, but acquiring acceptance through repetition. The figures on mafia proceeds in Italy are a striking example of this problem. This study proposes an estimation of mafia proceeds in Italy from nine criminal activities (sexual exploitation of women, illicit firearms trafficking, drug trafficking, counterfeiting, the illicit cigarette trade, illicit gambling, illicit waste disposal, loan sharking, and extortion racketeering) by region and type of mafia (Cosa Nostra, Camorra, ‘Ndrangheta, Apulian mafias, and other mafias). The results estimate yearly mafia proceeds at approximately €10.7 bn (0.7% of the Italian GDP), discussing the impact on the regional and national economies and the differences among the types of mafias as to their geographical sources of revenues.

The Italian mafias in the world: A systematic assessment of the mobility of criminal groups

This study complements existing literature on the mobility of criminal groups (mainly based on country case studies) with the first systematic assessment of the worldwide activities of the four main types of Italian mafias (Cosa Nostra, Camorra, ’Ndrangheta and Apulian mafias) from 2000 to 2012. Drawing from publicly available reports, a specific multiple correspondence analysis identifies the most important associations among mafias, activities, and countries. The results show that the mafias concentrate in a few countries; drug trafficking is the most frequent activity, whereas money laundering appears less important than expected; a stable mafia presence is reported in a few developed countries (mainly Germany, Canada, Australia, and the United States). The mafias show significant differences: the ’Ndrangheta tends to establish structured groups abroad, whereas the other mafias mainly participate in illicit trades.

Link Prediction in Criminal Networks: A Tool for Criminal Intelligence Analysis

The problem of link prediction has recently received increasing attention from scholars in network science. In social network analysis, one of its aims is to recover missing links, namely connections among actors which are likely to exist but have not been reported because data are incomplete or subject to various types of uncertainty. In the field of criminal investigations, problems of incomplete information are encountered almost by definition, given the obvious anti-detection strategies set up by criminals and the limited investigative resources. In this paper, we work on a specific dataset obtained from a real investigation, and we propose a strategy to identify missing links in a criminal network on the basis of the topological analysis of the links classified as marginal, i.e. removed during the investigation procedure. The main assumption is that missing links should have opposite features with respect to marginal ones. Measures of node similarity turn out to provide the best characterization in this sense. The inspection of the judicial source documents confirms that the predicted links, in most instances, do relate actors with large likelihood of co-participation in illicit activities.

Strategic Positioning in Mafia Networks

This paper analyzes two criminal networks belonging to the ̳Ndrangheta, a mafia-type criminal organization originating from Calabria, a Southern Italian Region. The literature on criminal networks argues that differences in the degree and betweenness centrality measures may highlight strategic positioning patterns for criminals capable of reducing risk of detection and maintaining control over the criminal activities at the same time. However, the identification of this strategic pattern is difficult whenever, as frequently happens, centrality measures are highly correlated The paper analyzes network positioning in two mafia-type organizations, where degree and betweenness centrality were highly correlated. The analysis focuses on specific characteristics of the individuals in the networks (task, hierarchy and social status within each group) and how these relate to network positioning (centrality scores and clustering coefficient) and the outcome of the criminal proceedings (accusation, arrest, conviction and sentence in months). Results show that task and hierarchy are highly associated with network centrality, but also with accusation, arrest and conviction. Contrarily, high social status within the networks shows limited association with network centrality and the outcome of criminal proceedings. This may reveal patterns of strategic positioning which could not be identified solely though network analysis measures. 1. Strategic positioning in criminal networks The literature on drug trafficking has repeatedly highlighted that drug markets are particularly flexible and dynamic environments (Benson and Decker 2010; Bouchard and Ouellet 2011:70-71; Desroches 2003; Dorn, Levi, and King 2005:14-15; Dorn, Murji, and South 1992:ix; Paoli 2004:201; Pearson and Hobbs 2001:11-12; Reuter 2009; Reuter and Haaga 1989:54-55). The characteristics of drug (and other) criminal markets inevitably influence the type of criminal groups operating within them. (Reuter 1983; Paoli 2004:203) Several constraints related to the illegality of the product makes it difficult for large criminal enterprises to emerge and continue for longer periods. Contrarily, small, inconstant groups are formed with fast changing partnerships (Reuter 1983; Eck and Gersh 2000). Larger structured groups, such as mafia-type groups are exceptional (Reuter 2009:16). Whenever they participate in drug markets, mafia-type organizations do not seem to achieve monopoly positions (Becchi 1996:125-127; Paoli 2002a:145-147; Varese 2006a:433-438). On the contrary, they adapt to the dynamic environment with very limited relevance to the internal formal hierarchy (Paoli 2004:198-199). In general, criminal groups, including mafia-type groups, appear constantly facing a trade-off between security (minimizing risk) and efficiency (maximizing opportunities/profits) (Bouchard and Nguyen 2010:132; Morselli, Giguère, and Petit 2007). The particular nature of illegal markets has brought several scholars in the last decades to call for the application of social network analysis (hereinafter SNA) in this field. They advocated the usefulness

Forecasting Organized Crime Homicides: Risk Terrain Modeling of Camorra Violence in Naples, Italy:

Mafia homicides are usually committed for retaliation, economic profit, or rivalry among groups. The variety of possible reasons suggests the inefficacy of a preventive approach. However, like most violent crimes, mafia homicides concentrate in space due to place-specific social and environmental features. Starting from the existing literature, this study applies the Risk Terrain Modeling approach to forecast the Camorra homicides in Naples, Italy. This approach is based on the identification and evaluation of the underlying risk factors able to affect the risk of a homicide. This information is then used to predict the most likely location of future events. The findings of this study demonstrate that past homicides, drug dealing, confiscated assets, and rivalries among groups make it possible to predict up to 85% of 2012 mafia homicides, identifying 11% of city areas at highest risk. By contrast, variables controlling for the socio-economic conditions of areas are not significantly related to the risk of homicide. Moreover, this study shows that, even in a restricted space, the same risk factors may combine in different ways, giving rise to areas of equal risk but requiring targeted remedies. These results provide an effective basis for short- and long-term targeted policing strategies against organized crime- and gang-related violence. A similar approach may also provide practitioners, policy makers, and local administrators in other countries with significant support in understanding and counteracting also other forms of violent behavior by gangs or organized crime groups.

Communities in criminal networks: A case study

Abstract Criminal organizations tend to be clustered to reduce risks of detection and information leaks. Yet, the literature exploring the relevance of subgroups for their internal structure is so far very limited. The paper applies methods of community analysis to explore the structure of a criminal network representing the individuals’ co-participation in meetings. It draws from a case study on a large law enforcement operation (“Operazione Infinito”) tackling the ‘Ndrangheta, a mafia organization from Calabria, a southern Italian region. The results show that the network is indeed clustered and that communities are associated, in a non-trivial way, with the internal organization of the ‘Ndrangheta into different “locali” (similar to mafia families). Furthermore, the results of community analysis can improve the prediction of the “locale” membership of the criminals (up to two thirds of any random sample of nodes) and the leadership roles (above 90% precision in classifying nodes as either bosses or non-bosses). The implications of these findings on the interpretation of the structure and functioning of the criminal network are discussed.