Marco Dugato

Forecasting Organized Crime Homicides: Risk Terrain Modeling of Camorra Violence in Naples, Italy:

Mafia homicides are usually committed for retaliation, economic profit, or rivalry among groups. The variety of possible reasons suggests the inefficacy of a preventive approach. However, like most violent crimes, mafia homicides concentrate in space due to place-specific social and environmental features. Starting from the existing literature, this study applies the Risk Terrain Modeling approach to forecast the Camorra homicides in Naples, Italy. This approach is based on the identification and evaluation of the underlying risk factors able to affect the risk of a homicide. This information is then used to predict the most likely location of future events. The findings of this study demonstrate that past homicides, drug dealing, confiscated assets, and rivalries among groups make it possible to predict up to 85% of 2012 mafia homicides, identifying 11% of city areas at highest risk. By contrast, variables controlling for the socio-economic conditions of areas are not significantly related to the risk of homicide. Moreover, this study shows that, even in a restricted space, the same risk factors may combine in different ways, giving rise to areas of equal risk but requiring targeted remedies. These results provide an effective basis for short- and long-term targeted policing strategies against organized crime- and gang-related violence. A similar approach may also provide practitioners, policy makers, and local administrators in other countries with significant support in understanding and counteracting also other forms of violent behavior by gangs or organized crime groups.

Analyzing Bank Robbery in Italy

Even though recent data show a decrease in the number of attacks and in the incidence of crimes committed by professional offenders, bank robbery is still a relevant issue in most American and European cities. Still, very few recent studies analyze this topic and most of them overlook the spatial and temporal patterns of this crime. This chapter analyzes the main characteristics of bank robberies occurred between 2005 and 2010 in Italy, which is the European country constantly recording the highest number of bank robberies. In particular, it focuses on the analysis of repeat victimization and its peculiarities since previous studies demonstrate the relevance of this phenomenon for bank robbery. Moreover, a further in-depth analysis investigates the victimization patterns in the Italian city of Milan from a spatio-temporal perspective. The general aim of this chapter is to update the knowledge about this type of crime considering its recent evolutions in connection with the innovations in the banking systems.

Theft of Medicines from Hospitals as Organised Retail Crime: The Italian Case

Theft of medicines is emerging as the new frontier of pharmaceutical crime and of organised retail crime. It is attractive to criminals due to the high profits and the relatively low risk, and it is facilitated by many asymmetries of the legal market. Using data retrieved from open sources and institutional reports, this chapter focuses on the theft of medicines from hospitals that occurred in Italy between 2006 and 2014. It describes what types of medicines are stolen, where and how, and it tests two hypotheses: (1) that stolen medicines are ‘laundered’ and resold on the legal market, exploiting the vulnerabilities of the pharmaceutical supply-chain; and (2) that organised crime—especially Italian mafias and Eastern European groups—plays a crucial role in this criminal activity, supported by a network of corrupt officials and white-collar criminals.

Price and Non-price Determinants of the Illicit Cigarette Trade: Analysis at the Subnational Level in the EU

Despite the heterogeneity of the illicit trade in cigarettes within countries, available studies mainly take national markets as their unit of analysis. The innovative contribution of this work is the focus on the phenomenon at the subnational level. Price and non-price factors are examined as determinants of the consumption of illicit cigarettes in 247 subnational areas of 28 European countries, exploiting a mixed linear model. This approach combines national and subnational data, thus accounting for the correlation among regions and explaining the important differences in the consumption of illicit cigarettes within a country. The size of the informal economy, the affordability of licit cigarettes, the rate of illicit cigarettes in the bordering regions, and the level of economic inequality emerge as the main etiological factors in the illicit cigarette trade in Europe.