Francesco Picciolo

Reciprocity of weighted networks

In directed networks, reciprocal links have dramatic effects on dynamical processes, network growth, and higher-order structures such as motifs and communities. While the reciprocity of binary networks has been extensively studied, that of weighted networks is still poorly understood, implying an ever-increasing gap between the availability of weighted network data and our understanding of their dyadic properties. Here we introduce a general approach to the reciprocity of weighted networks, and define quantities and null models that consistently capture empirical reciprocity patterns at different structural levels. We show that, counter-intuitively, previous reciprocity measures based on the similarity of mutual weights are uninformative. By contrast, our measures allow to consistently classify different weighted networks according to their reciprocity, track the evolution of a networks reciprocity over time, identify patterns at the level of dyads and vertices, and distinguish the effects of flux (im)balances or other (a)symmetries from a true tendency towards (anti-)reciprocation.

Reconciling long-term cultural diversity and short-term collective social behavior

An outstanding open problem is whether collective social phenomena occurring over short timescales can systematically reduce cultural heterogeneity in the long run, and whether offline and online human interactions contribute differently to the process. Theoretical models suggest that short-term collective behavior and long-term cultural diversity are mutually excluding, since they require very different levels of social influence. The latter jointly depends on two factors: the topology of the underlying social network and the overlap between individuals in multidimensional cultural space. However, while the empirical properties of social networks are intensively studied, little is known about the large-scale organization of real societies in cultural space, so that random input specifications are necessarily used in models. Here we use a large dataset to perform a high-dimensional analysis of the scientific beliefs of thousands of Europeans. We find that interopinion correlations determine a nontrivial ultrametric hierarchy of individuals in cultural space. When empirical data are used as inputs in models, ultrametricity has strong and counterintuitive effects. On short timescales, it facilitates a symmetry-breaking phase transition triggering coordinated social behavior. On long timescales, it suppresses cultural convergence by restricting it within disjoint groups. Moreover, ultrametricity implies that these results are surprisingly robust to modifications of the dynamical rules considered. Thus the empirical distribution of individuals in cultural space appears to systematically optimize the coexistence of short-term collective behavior and long-term cultural diversity, which can be realized simultaneously for the same moderate level of mutual influence in a diverse range of online and offline settings.

Spatial effects in real networks: Measures, null models, and applications

Spatially embedded networks are shaped by a combination of purely topological (space-independent) and space-dependent formation rules. While it is quite easy to artificially generate networks where the relative importance of these two factors can be varied arbitrarily, it is much more difficult to disentangle these two architectural effects in real networks. Here we propose a solution to this problem, by introducing global and local measures of spatial effects that, through a comparison with adequate null models, effectively filter out the spurious contribution of nonspatial constraints. Our filtering allows us to consistently compare different embedded networks or different historical snapshots of the same network. As a challenging application we analyze the World Trade Web, whose topology is known to depend on geographic distances but is also strongly determined by nonspatial constraints (degree sequence or gross domestic product). Remarkably, we are able to detect weak but significant spatial effects both locally and globally in the network, showing that our method succeeds in retrieving spatial information even when nonspatial factors dominate. We finally relate our results to the economic literature on gravity models and trade globalization.

The Role of Distances in the World Trade Web

In the economic literature, geographic distances are considered fundamental factors to be included in any theoretical model whose aim is the quantification of the trade between countries. Quantitatively, distances enter into the so-called gravity models that successfully predict the weight of non-zero trade flows. However, it has been recently shown that gravity models fail to reproduce the binary topology of the World Trade Web. In this paper a different approach is presented: the formalism of exponential random graphs is used and the distances are treated as constraints, to be imposed on a previously chosen ensemble of graphs. Then, the information encoded in the geographical distances is used to explain the binary structure of the World Trade Web, by testing it on the degree-degree correlations and the reciprocity structure. This leads to the definition of a novel null model that combines spatial and non-spatial effects. The effectiveness of spatial constraints is compared to that of nonspatial ones by means of the Akaike Information Criterion and the Bayesian Information Criterion. Even if it is commonly believed that the World Trade Web is strongly dependent on the distances, what emerges from our analysis is that distances do not play a crucial role in shaping the World Trade Web binary structure and that the information encoded into the reciprocity is far more useful in explaining the observed patterns.

Rebound Effect and Structural Change

The rebound effect (RE) is an unintended increase in energy usage due to the introduction of an energy-efficient technology and the consequential lower price of the relative energy service (brief intro to the idea helpful). The RE arguably poses serious threats to the ongoing energy conservation and GHG-mitigating policies. This alarming issue is now widely recognized by the scientific community. Last year the European Commission (DG environmental unit C2) commissioned, for the first time, a study on the RE, acknowledging the need of approaching this problem and urging more research on this important topic. Current modeling methodologies of the RE are time- and space limited. In this chapter we show that there are structural changes in the economy, occurring on a long range of time and concerning the whole productive structure, that are energy demanding. We approach structural changes with network theory and statistical mechanics of networks to show to what extent they can be regarded as an increase in complexity of transport systems. We analyze these changes in the light of economic growth theory and more broadly, of growth theory of metabolic processes. We finally advanced a heuristic explanation of structural changes based on saturation and symmetry breaking.