Franci Steinman

Using machine learning techniques in the construction of models I. Introduction

A research was initiated in automated modelling of the ecosystem using deep knowledge and machine learning techniques. The goal of the research is to show that using advanced artificial intelligence (AI) techniques, measurements, and some general basic knowledge about the ecosystem suffice to automatically generate better models and in less time than is the case by traditional construction of models. Namely, advanced techniques of AI are able to identify and model a system that we do not understand yet. The methodology of the approach is presented and illustrated by an example of a successfully constructed model in the field of medicine. Subsequently some encouraging results were obtained in the field of ecology and related sciences.

Hydropower Suitability Analysis on a Large Scale Level: Inclusion of a Calibration Phase to Support Determination of Model Parameters

The paper presents an approach to the modelling of watercourses or their sections according to and in order to determine their suitability for hydropower water use on a large scale. The method is based on a multi-criteria analysis approach which in addition to existing guidelines defines and describes in detail the main stages for model establishment and hydropower suitability analysis. Since hydropower planning stands in direct conflict with other ecological water-related objectives, evaluation of suitability is based on two main criteria, which are supported with the belonging criteria. The first main criterion is based on evaluation of watercourses by their attractiveness for hydropower water use; the second one on evaluation of watercourses according to their ecological state or value. To support proper determination of unknown model parameters (e.g. weights of selected criteria) the paper also presents an upgrade of general multi-criteria analysis process with a calibration stage, which can efficiently upgrade in cases when calibration data is available. The proposed method was tested and discussed on a real case study with three dislocated Slovenian Alpine watercourses, where weights of preselected criteria and some thresholds of performance functions were selected as model variables and calibrated.

Desalination of Coastal Karst Springs by Hydro-geologic, Hydro-technical and Adaptable Methods

The karst landscape consists of rocks such as limestone, dolomite, gypsum and various salts which are, to a greater or lesser extent, soluble in water, and through which underground water flows. According to this, the latest definition of the karst, 10 % of the worlds land surface, and as much as 40 % of Slovenias surface, is covered by carbonate karst rocks, which are the only kind of karst rocks that are important from the point of view of the exploitation of their water resources. On typical carbonate karst, only short lengths of rivers flowing through karst poljes are to be found. Elsewhere, due to the fact that water flows underground, the karst is a dry area, with a lack of drinking water; next to the sea, brackish karst springs are found. This paper is concerned with the successes and failures of engineering -works which have attempted to improve natural conditions through the construction of various structures for the desalination of brackish springs. The fact that many completed works have been successful should encourage engineers to design and build new hydro-technical structures in karst environments (Breznik, 1998). In the Ice ages were the differences between the lowest mean temperatures of the cold periods and the highest ones of the warm periods 5 degrees Celsius. These differences between the lowest ones of the Ice ages and the present highest ones are 7 degrees Celsius. During the last 30 years, 10 warmest were between 1990 and 2006. We are living probably in the warmest period during the last 150.000 years (Rošker, 2007). The yearly air temperatures in Ljubljana have increased by 1,7 degrees Celsius in the last 50 years (Kajfež-Bogataj, 2006). Sixty years ago, we had to walk for 1km over the Triglav mountains glacier, after climbing over the Triglavs north wall, 800 m high. This glacier has nearly melted till the present. Precipitations have decreased from 1100 to 1000 mm/year in the Trieste town during last 100 years. Italian scientists believe that the Azores Island’s anticyclone with sunny weather has extended towards the Mediterranean. Precipitations in the Portorož town have decreased by 14%, during the last 50 years (Kajfež-Bogataj, 2006). An about 1000 km large belt of severe drought hazards event extends along the southern Spain, Italy, Greece, Turkey and northern Africa to Syria and Iraq. Lučka Kajfež-Bogataj, Professor of the Ljubljana University and the Vice-chair of the Working Group II: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability of the Intergovernmental Panel

The impact of floodplain land use on flood wave propagation

Due to their retention capacity, extensive flat floodplains have a significant impact on the propagation and transformation of flood waves. The conveyance and retention capacity of an area is significantly influenced by land use. The paper presents results of a hydraulic analysis of the impact of land use on the run-off regime in a retention area and consequently on flood wave propagation. The land use of the retention area was simulated by hydraulic roughness. The simulations were performed for flood waves with different values of peak discharge and with two lengths of duration. A spectrum of flood waves in which the retention areas have significant impact on the propagation was considered. To isolate the impact of topographical characteristics of riparian and retention areas on the communication of water between the channel and retention area, as well as on the formation of parallel streams in the area, a theoretical modelling area with simplified geometry was used in the first phase. Conclusions based on the results of the first-phase simulations were tested on a practical case of the plain Krško–Brežiško polje, where data from field measurements as well as data from the physical model were used in the numerical calibration of the model.

Records and state of public infrastructure, the case of the Vogršček reservoir

An important component in the development of the environment is diverse and functioning public infrastructure (PI), which is managed by different sectors in Slovenia. Information on the PI in Slovenia is collected in the Consolidated Cadastre of PI maintained by the Surveying and Mapping Authority of Republic of Slovenia; it is an indispensable actor in the various processes of spatial governance. In this paper, a three-stage methodology for the analysis of public infrastructure is presented, which enables the systematic and repeatable analysis of PI and is also useful to check interactions between elements of PI in the observed area. The proposed methodology is tested in the wider area of the Vogrscek reservoir in the Vipava Valley. Through legislation, regulations on the management and maintenance, concession contracts and agreements, the management and maintenance of PI at the intersections of different infrastructure is defined. The examples given show the importance of the optimal operation of each part of infrastructure for the operation of the infrastructure in other sectors, as well as the importance of accurate records. Suggestions for improving the situation in the field of PI records are also given.

Incorporation of the Critical Infrastructure Management Into the Dss on Strategic Water Supply System Management

There are more than 1,000 water supply systems (WSS) in the Republic of Slovenia due to the dispersed settlement pattern and more than 120 WSS operators managing them. In order to follow-up the performance of public service on all those systems and ensure the efficiency of the managing companies a complex regulative system (with decision support system DSS) is under continuous development with a scope to ensure safe and quality water supply on short term as well on long term. The driving mechanism for DSS was implementation of the EU Drinking Water Directive. A specific topic in this DSS is now addressing also the functionality of water supply system as critical infrastructure under terms of forthcoming EU Directive (proposed COM 2006/787) and national. Within the annex I of the proposed Critical Infrastructure Directive – Provision of drinking water and control of water quality water supply is identified as one of the explicitly listed sub-sectors. While the proposed directive is generally addressing the infrastructure that affects two or more member states it is also clearly expressing necessity of close harmonization with national systems of critical infrastructure. In the article the applied approach on the DSS level to the critical infrastructure will be presented with key steps that are foreseen by the directive: identification of the infrastructure, risk analysis, counter-measures and procedures implemented in the system.