Francis Perrin

PRIORITIES IN THE FIELD OF ENERGY: RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT

The general analysis and the main conclusions I presented at our first conference, 4 years ago, on the energy needs and supplies of mankind until the end of the century, are still essentially valid. But the recent energy crisis, initiated by the very large increase of the price of crude oil produced in the Arab states, associated with a general limitation of their production and restrictions of deliveries decided by these states, have changed the scale of time for the problems connected with the final exhaustion of world reserves of petroleum and natural gas and show how different these problems are, in the near future at least, for the main industrialized countries according to the importance of their national resource and reserve in fossil fuel. The priorities should be modified taking into account the most urgent needs of these countries or group of countries, essentially North America, Western Europe and Japan, the Soviet Union being practically unaffected by the energy crisis. The sharp increase in the price of crude oil will also probably slow down the development of the poor countries of the third world, such as India, thus creating a serious situation for mankind. During the past few years a number of excellent analyses of the world energy situation, present and future, have been published, most of them with recommendations on what should be done to face the energy shortage which may appear before the end of the century. But there is not a general agreement between these conclusions, emphasis being put on the continuation of the annual increase of the energy consumption, considered as desirable or unavoidable, or on the protection of the environment. Moreover, the priorities between the different actions on which an agreement appears have been changed by the new policy of the oil-exporting countries. Throughout the industrialized “western world” the most urgent priority is to try to become, as soon as possible, independent of, or at least less dependent on, the oil-producing Arab states, essentially those bordering the Persian Gulf, where the largest ;eserves exist. This can be done only by using known technologies and developing the production in already known important deposits of fossil fuel. These actions involving very large investments and the development of new sources of primary energy cannot have more than a second priority, although they may be of great importance in some cases before the end of the century. In Western Europe, particularly in France, Italy, Switzerland, Belgium, and Spain, there are two alternatives: either a serious rationing of energy in all its forms (electricity, gas, gasoline, fuel oil) or the launching of a large program of construction of electronuclear plants. However, any effective

WORLD PRIORITIES—ENERGY RESOURCES AND ARRANGEMENTS: GROUP REPORT 2

It can be said that energy use is a prime component of the high standard of living to which all people aspire. Thus, the improvement of man’s material well-being has been accompanied by a rapid rise in the rate at which he uses energy. In the past, abundant supplies of readily accessible fossil fuels have been available at low cost and these have flowed relatively freely across national boundaries. Thus, our use of energy has grown exponentially; in the post-World War I1 period this growth has exhibited a doubling time of about 14 years. Although this growth has occurred throughout most of the world, it has not lessened the vast inequality in energy use between rich and poor regions. The United States, with 6 percent of the world’s population, uses 33 percent of the world’s ‘energy; the per capita consumption in the energy-poor countries is only about 1 percent of that in the United States. We identify the major elements of the energy situation in the present and near-term future to be: (1) In regions of the highest use, the absolute magnitude of growth has outstripped the capacity of the fossil-fuel industry to keep pace with that growth. For a variety of reasons the number of refineries built in recent years has been insufficient. (2) Our growing awareness of the adverse environmental impact of fossil energy sources has introduced an additional impedence into the nations’ planned programs of energy expansion. (3) From the large spectrum of technological possibilities only one new energy technology has been developed since World War 11-nuclear energy -and the rate of its development and introduction into the energy economy has been slower than had earlier been anticipated, because of both technical and environmental problems. (4) Recent international events have included both sharp increases in * Chairperson. t Rapporteur.

Recent advances in energy systems.

Within the frame of the Conference on “Environment and Society in Transition,” this report will consider the recent advances in those energy systems that convert energy from primary sources into thermal, mechanical, or electrical energy available for utilization. Advances likely to become practical, or even those which appear to have some possibility of becoming practical within the next ten or twenty years, should also be considered. The main object of this presentation is to determine how much these advances can help meet the growing requirements of mankind, in advanced or in developing countries, and how they may improve or worsen the various pollutions that result from the conversion of the primary energy.