Francisco Ledesma-Rodríguez

Panel data and tourism: a case study of Tenerife.

The authors estimate short-run and long-run elasticities for tourists visiting the island of Tenerife. Panel data analysis has rarely been used in previous empirical research. Most of the work in this field takes a price and an income variable to explain tourism demand, and less attention has been given to other variables, such as promotional expenditure. The authors find a significant influence in this variable. They also obtain significant elasticities for income, exchange rate, cost of the trip, and infrastructure.

Exchange Rate Regimes and Tourism

The main objective of this paper is to analyse the effect of exchange rate arrangements on international tourism. The ambiguity in the literature about the effect of exchange rate volatility contrasts with the magnitude of the impact of a common currency on trade. The authors apply panel data techniques to analyse the relevance of a common currency to tourism, finding that it is a major factor in the determination of tourist arrivals. They also analyse the impact of several de facto exchange rate arrangements on tourism, finding that less flexible exchange rates promote tourism.The main objective of this paper is to analyse the effect of exchange rate arrangements on international tourism. The ambiguity in the literature about the effect of exchange rate volatility contrasts with the magnitude of the impact of a common currency on trade. The authors apply panel data techniques to analyse the relevance of a common currency to tourism, finding that it is a major factor in the determination of tourist arrivals. They also analyse the impact of several de facto exchange rate arrangements on tourism, finding that less flexible exchange rates promote tourism.

Assessing the credibility of a target zone: evidence from the EMS

This paper provides some new evidence on the credibility of the Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) of the European Monetary System (EMS). The study differs from previous research in the literature in three main respects. First, the main contribution is the use of several credibility indicators, some of which have never been applied before to all of the currencies under study. This allows one to strengthen the results obtained in this paper. Second, a longer period than that of previous studies is analysed, covering the complete EMS history. Third, a comparison has been made of the prediction qualities of the different indicators, in order to explore their ability to capture the main ERM events (realignments, changes in the fluctuations bands and speculative pressures). Fourth, the indicators are applied to the experience of the new, modified ERM linking the currencies of non-euro area Member States to the euro, showing the relevance of this approach in the near future with the enlargement of the European Union.

Does a Common Currency Promote Countries Growth Via Trade and Tourism

The main aim of this study is to contribute to the debate on the effects of a common currency. In particular, the impact of a common currency on growth via trade and tourism is explored for a panel dataset which includes 179 countries as destination and 30 OECD countries as origin over the period 1995-2006. This research contributes to previous work in three ways: (i) tourism is included as an additional channel for a common currency to promote growth; (ii) the heterogeneity of countries is addressed by dividing the sample into three groups of countries by income; and (iii) up-to-date data including the case of the euro are considered. The results obtained suggest that a common currency strengthens economic growth by promoting not only international trade but also tourism.

Tourism and trade in small island regions: the case of the Canary Islands.

The main objective of this paper is to study the relationship between international trade and tourism in small island regions (that is, territories that are dependent to a significant degree on the rest of the world). To that end, the authors explore the different forms this relationship can take and apply cointegration and the Granger causality test to the case of the Canary Islands. The results suggest a long-term bidirectional relationship between tourism and trade, while the short-run link lies mainly in the trade generated by tourist arrivals.

Purchasing power parity and nonlinear adjustment

In this article we study the out-of-sample real exchange rate forecasts of an Artificial Neural Network model, an AR model and a random walk model. The results confirm the relevance of nonlinear adjustment in the dynamics of the real exchange rate.

The euro effect: Tourism creation, tourism diversion and tourism potential within the European Union

This paper investigates the impact of the Economic and Monetary Union on international tourism flows across a set of 37 developed countries. To do this, an augmented gravity model is estimated using a sample of 31 European countries plus six non-European OECD countries over the period 1995–2012. Results suggest a substantial impact of the euro on intra-Eurozone tourism of between 44 and 126% when proper estimation method, control group and definition of the Eurozone are used. Moreover, evidence of tourism creation is also found. Finally, the potential tourism gains for new members and possible entrants of adopting the euro are explored. This study provides a detailed analysis on the effect of the euro on tourism flows which might be of interest for policymakers of the Eurozone or future member states.

Implicit bands in the yen/dollar exchange rate

This article attempts to identify implicit exchange rate regimes for the yen/dollar exchange rate. To that end, we apply a sequential procedure that considers both the dynamics of exchange rates and central bank interventions to data covering the period from 1971 to 2003. Our results suggest that implicit bands existed in two subperiods: April–December 1980 and March–October 1987, the latter coinciding with the Louvre Accord. Furthermore, the study of the credibility of such implicit bands indicates the high degree of confidence attributed by economic agents to the evolution of the yen/dollar exchange rate within the detected implicit band rate, thus lending further support to the relevance of such implicit bands.

Implicit bands in the Spanish peseta/Deutschmark exchange rate, 1965-1998

The objective of this article is to identify implicit bands for the Spanish peseta/Deutschmark exchange rate. To this end, based on the ‘natural’ classification approach suggested by Reinhart and Rogoff (2004), we propose a statistical test to assess the statistical significance of the outcome of their classifying algorithm. The test is applied to the period 1965–1998, indicating our results existence of fluctuation bands in the 1980s and 1990s, before and after the entry of the peseta into the European Monetary System.

An Empirical Examination of Exchange-Rate Credibility Determinants in the EMS

This paper provides empirical evidence on the determinants of exchange rate credibility under the European Monetary System (EMS). To that end, we have considered both economic variables and political factors using data of eight currencies participating in the Exchange Rate Mechanism, covering the complete EMS history (1979-1998). Our results suggest that the level of international reserves, the real interest rate and right-wing governments would have positively affected the credibility of a given central parity, while the unemployment rate and the inflation rate would have negative influenced such credibility.