Jorge Pérez-Rodríguez

Assessing the credibility of a target zone: evidence from the EMS

This paper provides some new evidence on the credibility of the Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) of the European Monetary System (EMS). The study differs from previous research in the literature in three main respects. First, the main contribution is the use of several credibility indicators, some of which have never been applied before to all of the currencies under study. This allows one to strengthen the results obtained in this paper. Second, a longer period than that of previous studies is analysed, covering the complete EMS history. Third, a comparison has been made of the prediction qualities of the different indicators, in order to explore their ability to capture the main ERM events (realignments, changes in the fluctuations bands and speculative pressures). Fourth, the indicators are applied to the experience of the new, modified ERM linking the currencies of non-euro area Member States to the euro, showing the relevance of this approach in the near future with the enlargement of the European Union.

Return to tourist destination. Is it reputation, after all?

In this paper the hypothesis that repeated purchases in the tourism markets could be considered as a consequence of asymmetrical information problems is studied. This hypothesis is analysed with the case study of the island of Tenerife using the estimation of a count data model. It was found that the length of the stay and the information obtained from previous visits and/or relatives and friends might increase the return to a destination suggesting the presence of a reputation mechanism as proposed by Shapiro (1983). The determinants of the willingness to return were also estimated, confirming the main results.

Implicit bands in the yen/dollar exchange rate

This article attempts to identify implicit exchange rate regimes for the yen/dollar exchange rate. To that end, we apply a sequential procedure that considers both the dynamics of exchange rates and central bank interventions to data covering the period from 1971 to 2003. Our results suggest that implicit bands existed in two subperiods: April–December 1980 and March–October 1987, the latter coinciding with the Louvre Accord. Furthermore, the study of the credibility of such implicit bands indicates the high degree of confidence attributed by economic agents to the evolution of the yen/dollar exchange rate within the detected implicit band rate, thus lending further support to the relevance of such implicit bands.

Implicit bands in the Spanish peseta/Deutschmark exchange rate, 1965-1998

The objective of this article is to identify implicit bands for the Spanish peseta/Deutschmark exchange rate. To this end, based on the ‘natural’ classification approach suggested by Reinhart and Rogoff (2004), we propose a statistical test to assess the statistical significance of the outcome of their classifying algorithm. The test is applied to the period 1965–1998, indicating our results existence of fluctuation bands in the 1980s and 1990s, before and after the entry of the peseta into the European Monetary System.

An Empirical Examination of Exchange-Rate Credibility Determinants in the EMS

This paper provides empirical evidence on the determinants of exchange rate credibility under the European Monetary System (EMS). To that end, we have considered both economic variables and political factors using data of eight currencies participating in the Exchange Rate Mechanism, covering the complete EMS history (1979-1998). Our results suggest that the level of international reserves, the real interest rate and right-wing governments would have positively affected the credibility of a given central parity, while the unemployment rate and the inflation rate would have negative influenced such credibility.