Franco Romerio

Climate change impacts on hydropower in the Swiss and Italian Alps

This paper provides a synthesis and comparison of methodologies and results obtained in several studies devoted to the impact of climate change on hydropower. By putting into perspective various case studies, we provide a broader context and improved understanding of climate changes on energy production. We also underline the strengths and weaknesses of the approaches used as far as technical, physical and economical aspects are concerned. Although the catchments under investigation are located close to each other in geographic terms (Swiss and Italian Alps), they represent a wide variety of situations which may be affected by differing evolutions for instance in terms of annual runoff. In this study, we also differentiate between run-of-river, storage and pumping-storage power plants. By integrating and comparing various analyses carried out in the framework of the EU-FP7 ACQWA project, this paper discusses the complexity as well as current and future issues of hydropower management in the entire Alpine region.

Climate Change Impacts on Hydropower Management

Climate change affects hydropower production by modifying total annual inflow volumes and their seasonal distribution. Moreover, increasing air temperatures impact electricity consumption and, as a consequence, electricity prices. All together, these phenomena may lead to a loss in revenue. We show that an adequate management of hydropower plants mitigates these losses. These results are obtained by resorting to an interdisciplinary approach integrating hydrology, economy and hydropower management in an interdependent quantitative model.

Long-term Uncertainty of Hydropower Revenue Due to Climate Change and Electricity Prices

Hydropower represents the world’s largest renewable energy source. As a flexible technology, it enhances reliability and security of the electricity system. However, climate change and market liberalization may hinder investment due to the evolution of water runoffs and electricity prices. Both alter expected revenue and bring uncertainty. It increases risk and deters investment. Our research assesses how climate change and market fluctuation affect annual revenue. But this paper focuses on the uncertainty, rather than on forecasting. This transdisciplinary topic is investigated by means of a mixed method, i.e. both quantitative and qualitative. The quantitative approach uses established models in natural sciences and economics. The uncertainty is accounted for by applying various scenarios and various datasets coming from different models. Based on those results, uncertainty is discussed through an analysis discerning three dimensions of uncertainty. Uncertainty analysis requires the assessment of a large panel of models and data sets. It is therefore rarely carried out. The originality of the paper also lies on the combination of quantitative established models with a qualitative analysis. The results surprisingly show that the greenhouse gas scenarios may in fact represent a low source of uncertainty, unlike electricity prices. Like forecasting, the main uncertainties are actually case study related and depend on the investigated variables. It is also shown that the nature of uncertainty evolves. Runoff uncertainty goes from variability, i.e. inherent randomness, to epistemic, i.e. limitation of science. The reverse situation occurs with the electricity price. The implications for scientists and policy makers are discussed.

The risks of the nuclear policies

Abstract This paper has been written on the base of Romerio, 1994, which includes 80 pages of references (here we only quote some of them which are particularly significant). A previous version has been published in Energy and economic growth: is sustainable growth possible? Proceedings of the 20th Annual International Conference of the International Association for Energy Economics: New Delhi: Tata Energy Research Institute, 1997, v. III, p. 845–856. We would like to thank the Swiss National Science Foundation who has partially supported this study, as well as Ms. Cheryl Dotti, Ms. Masha Egorova and Ms. Catherine Varfis for their remarks. We carry out an evaluation of the risks of nuclear policies from the point of view of security of energy supplies and of the environment. We define a model which helps to explain and evaluate the choice of the nuclear sector, electric utilities and governments. This model takes into consideration the main elements which may restrain nuclear energy development, in particular, electric consumption evolution, production costs, fuel resources, major accidents, disposal of highly radioactive wastes, and development of new technologies allowing to reduce emissions from the coal fired power station. We also examine the problem of the gap existing between “the reality” and “the objectives of the actors”, because it allows to understand some energy policy decisions. We examine the risks provoked by energy strategies which try to realise their objectives through an unilateral technological choice. We point out the economic and political advantages of diversification and flexibility. We evoke the importance of objectivity and transparency. This paper intends to be a contribution to discussions on sustainable development and on the future of nuclear energy.

Hydroelectric Resources Between State and Market in the Alpine Countries

markets to competition, which raises deep controversies. It takes into account the institutional, socioeconomic, environmental, and energy aspects of the problem. It outlines the historical roots of current problems, as well as the prospects for the medium and long term. As a whole, the article provides a rather positive judgment on the hydroelectric exploitation’s prospects, in spite of the complexity of the problems and uncertainties. Concerning the mountain regions, it suggests taking advantage of the opportunity provided by the electricity sector’s reorganization in order respect, they should concentrate on peak production and promote green labels.

A parametric genetic algorithm approach to assess complementary options of large scale windsolar coupling

The transitional path towards a highly renewable power system based on wind and solar energy sources is investigated considering their intermittent and spatially distributed characteristics. Using an extensive weather-driven simulation of hourly power mismatches between generation and load, we explore the interplay between geographical resource complementarity and energy storage strategies. Solar and wind resources are considered at variable spatial scales across Europe and related to the Swiss load curve, which serve as a typical demand side reference. The optimal spatial distribution of renewable units is further assessed through a parameterized optimization method based on a genetic algorithm. It allows us to explore systematically the effective potential of combined integration strategies depending on the sizing of the system, with a focus on how overall performance is affected by the definition of network boundaries. Upper bounds on integration schemes are provided considering both renewable penetration and needed reserve power capacity. The quantitative trade-off between grid extension, storage and optimal wind-solar mix is highlighted. This paper also brings insights on how optimal geographical distribution of renewable units evolves as a function of renewable penetration and grid extent.

The Future of Swiss Hydropower - A Review on Drivers and Uncertainties

Swiss Hydropower (HP) is currently facing a wide range of challenges that have initiated a debate about future prospects and its role within the envisioned energy transition. Building on this debate, this paper provides an overview of the status and prospects of Swiss HP by identifying and evaluating the different drivers and uncertainties that Swiss HP faces. Based on a review and the perceptions held by some of the main Swiss HP stakeholders the two main topics that need to be addressed are the market driven impacts and the political, legal and social aspects. While the market dynamics cannot directly be influenced by Swiss companies or authorities, the regulatory framework can and needs to be adjusted. However, this requires a comprehensive stakeholder process and is at least a medium-term process.

Natural hazard risk in the case of an emergency: the real options’ approach

Abstract In the case of an emergency provoked by a natural event, decision makers should (1) acquire a comprehensive understanding of the current dynamics and (2) take the optimal decision based on the information available at that moment. Scientists should provide the key inputs to decision makers, as well as clearly highlight the current dynamics. While much progress has been made in this field, the theory of options, which was developed to assess financial and real investments in an uncertain world, has as yet never been applied in emergency management related to natural hazards. This article highlights, through some simple examples, the contribution that this approach may provide in this field. First, it allows the comparison of different strategies and to value their degrees of flexibility. Second, it allows the determination of the optimal timing of different types of intervention. Finally, thanks to decision trees, this approach provides a clear and concise presentation of the current dynamics. Options theory possesses an interesting potential to improve emergency management.