Frank A. D'Agnese

Methods for using groundwater model predictions to guide hydrogeologic data collection, with application to the Death Valley regional groundwater flow system

Received 13 February 2002; revised 27 May 2002; accepted 27 May 2002; published 17 January 2003. [1] Calibrated models of groundwater systems can provide substantial information for guiding data collection. This work considers using such models to guide hydrogeologic data collection for improving model predictions by identifying model parameters that are most important to the predictions. Identification of these important parameters can help guide collection of field data about parameter values and associated flow system features and can lead to improved predictions. Methods for identifying parameters important to predictions include prediction scaled sensitivities (PSS), which account for uncertainty on individual parameters as well as prediction sensitivity to parameters, and a new ‘‘value of improved information’’ (VOII) method presented here, which includes the effects of parameter correlation in addition to individual parameter uncertainty and prediction sensitivity. In this work, the PSS and VOII methods are demonstrated and evaluated using a model of the Death Valley regional groundwater flow system. The predictions of interest are advective transport paths originating at sites of past underground nuclear testing. Results show that for two paths evaluated the most important parameters include a subset of five or six of the 23 defined model parameters. Some of the parameters identified as most important are associated with flow system attributes that do not lie in the immediate vicinity of the paths. Results also indicate that the PSS and VOII methods can identify different important parameters. Because the methods emphasize somewhat different criteria for parameter importance, it is suggested that parameters identified by both methods be carefully considered in subsequent data collection efforts aimed at improving model predictions. INDEX TERMS: 1829 Hydrology: Groundwater hydrology; 1832 Hydrology: Groundwater transport; 3210 Mathematical Geophysics: Modeling; 6309 Policy Sciences: Decision making under uncertainty; KEYWORDS: prediction uncertainty, sensitivities, correlation, value of information, data worth, advective transport

Hydrogeologic evaluation and numerical simulation of the Death Valley regional ground-water flow system, Nevada and California

Yucca Mountain is being studied as a potential site for a high-level radioactive waste repository. In cooperation with the U.S. Department of Energy, the U.S. Geological Survey is evaluating the geologic and hydrologic characteristics of the ground-water system. The study area covers approximately 100,000 square kilometers between lat 35{degrees}N., long 115{degrees}W and lat 38{degrees}N., long 118{degrees}W and encompasses the Death Valley regional ground-water flow system. Hydrology in the region is a result of both the and climatic conditions and the complex described as dominated by interbasinal flow and may be conceptualized as having two main components: a series of relatively shallow and localized flow paths that are superimposed on deeper regional flow paths. A significant component of the regional ground-water flow is through a thick Paleozoic carbonate rock sequence. Throughout the regional flow system, ground-water flow is probably controlled by extensive and prevalent structural features that result from regional faulting and fracturing. Hydrogeologic investigations over a large and hydrogeologically complex area impose severe demands on data management. This study utilized geographic information systems and geoscientific information systems to develop, store, manipulate, and analyze regional hydrogeologic data sets describing various components of the ground-water flow system.

Death valley regional ground-water flow model calibration using optimal parameter estimation methods and geoscientific information systems

A regional-scale, steady-state, saturated-zone ground-water flow model was constructed to evaluate potential regional ground-water flow in the vicinity of Yucca Mountain, Nevada. The model was limited to three layers in an effort to evaluate the characteristics governing large-scale subsurface flow. Geoscientific information systems (GSIS) were used to characterize the complex surface and subsurface hydrogeologic conditions of the area, and this characterization was used to construct likely conceptual models of the flow system. Subsurface properties in this system vary dramatically, producing high contrasts and abrupt contacts. This characteristic, combined with the large scale of the model, make zonation the logical choice for representing the hydraulic-conductivity distribution. Different conceptual models were evaluated using sensitivity analysis and were tested by using nonlinear regression to determine parameter values that are optimal, in that they provide the best match between the measured and simulated heads and flows. The different conceptual models were judged based both on the fit achieved to measured heads and spring flows, and the plausibility of the optimal parameter values. One of the conceptual models considered appears to represent the system most realistically. Any apparent model error is probably caused by the coarse vertical and horizontal discretization.

Preliminary evaluation of the importance of existing hydraulic-head observation locations to advective-transport predictions, Death Valley regional flow system, California and Nevada

When a model is calibrated by nonlinear regression, calculated diagnostic statistics and measures of uncertainty provide a wealth of information about many aspects of the system. This report presents a method of ranking the likely importance of existing observation locations using measures of prediction uncertainty. It is suggested that continued monitoring is warranted at more important locations, and unwarranted or less warranted at less important locations. The report develops the methodology and then demonstrates it using the hydraulic-head observation locations of a three-layer model of the Death Valley regional flow system (DVRFS). The predictions of interest are subsurface transport from beneath Yucca Mountain and 14 underground Test Area (UGTA) sites. The advective component of transport is considered because it is the component most affected by the system dynamics represented by the regional-scale model being used. The problem is addressed using the capabilities of the U.S. Geological Survey computer program MODFLOW-2000, with its ADVective-Travel Observation (ADV) Package, and an additional computer program developed for this work.

An estimated potentiometric surface of the Death Valley region, Nevada and California, developed using geographic information system and automated interpolation techniques

An estimated potentiometric surface was constructed for the Death Valley region, Nevada and California, from numerous, disparate data sets. The potentiometric surface was required for conceptualization of the ground-water flow system and for construction of a numerical model to aid in the regional characterization for the Yucca Mountain repository. Because accurate, manual extrapolation of potentiometric levels over large distances is difficult, a geographic-information-system method was developed to incorporate available data and apply hydrogeologic rules during contour construction. Altitudes of lakes, springs, and wetlands, interpreted as areas where the potentiometric surface intercepts the land surface, were combined with water levels from well data. Because interpreted ground-water recharge and discharge areas commonly coincide with groundwater basin boundaries, these areas also were used to constrain a gridding algorithm and to appropriately place local maxima and minima in the potentiometric-surface map. The resulting initial potentiometric surface was examined to define areas where the algorithm incorrectly extrapolated the potentiometric surface above the land surface. A map of low-permeability rocks overlaid on the potentiometric surface also indicated areas that required editing based on hydrogeologic reasoning. An interactive editor was used to adjust generated contours to better represent the natural water table conditions, such as large hydraulic gradients and troughs, or ``vees``. The resulting estimated potentiometric-surface map agreed well with previously constructed maps. Potentiometric-surface characteristics including potentiometric-surface mounds and depressions, surface troughs, and large hydraulic gradients were described.

Preliminary digital geologic maps of the Mariposa, Kingman, Trona, and Death Valley Sheets, California

Parts of four 1:250,000-scale geologic maps by the California Department of Natural Resources, Division of Mines and Geology have been digitized for use in hydrogeologic characterization. These maps include the area of California between lat. 35{degree}N; Long. 115{degree}W and lat. 38{degree}N, long. 118{degree}W of the Kingman Sheet (Jennings, 1961), Trona Sheet (Jennings and others, 1962), Mariposa Sheet (Strand, 1967), and Death Valley Sheet (Streitz and Stinson, 1974). These digital maps are being released by the US Geological Survey in the ARC/INFO Version 6.1 Export format. The digitized data include geologic unit boundaries, fault traces, and identity of geologic units. The procedure outlined in US Geological Survey Circular 1054 (Soller and others, 1990) was sued during the map construction. The procedure involves transferring hard-copy data into digital format by scanning manuscript maps, manipulating the digital map data, and outputting the data. Most of the work was done using Environmental Systems Research Institute`s ARC/INFO software. The digital maps are available in ARC/INFO Rev. 6.1 Export format, from the USGS, Yucca Mountain Project, in Denver, Colorado.