Joseph A. Hevesi

Precipitation estimation in mountainous terrain using multivariate geostatistics. Part II: isohyetal maps

Abstract Values of average annual precipitation (AAP) may be important for hydrologic characterization of a potential high-level nuclear-waste repository site at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. Reliable measurements of AAP are sparse in the vicinity of Yucca Mountain, and estimates of AAP were needed for an isohyetal mapping over a 2600-square-mile watershed containing Yucca Mountain. Estimates were obtained with a multivariate geostatistical model developed using AAP and elevation data from a network of 42 precipitation stations in southern Nevada and southeastern California. An additional 1531 elevations were obtained to improve estimation accuracy. Isohyets representing estimates obtained using univariate geostatistics (kriging) defined a smooth and continuous surface. Isohyets representing estimates obtained using multivariate geostatistics (cokriging) defined an irregular surface that more accurately represented expected local orographic influences on AAP. Cokriging results included a maximum estimate within...

Fundamental concepts of recharge in the desert Southwest: a regional modeling perspective.

Recharge in arid basins does not occur in all years or at all locations within a basin. In the desert Southwest potential evapotranspiration exceeds precipitation on an average annual basis and, in many basins, on an average monthly basis. Ground-water traveltime from the surface to the water table and recharge to the water table vary temporally and spatially owing to variations in precipitation, air temperature, root zone and soil properties and thickness, faults and fractures, and hydrologic properties of geologic strata in the unsaturated zone. To highlight the fundamental concepts controlling recharge in the Southwest, and address the temporal and spatial variability of recharge, a basin characterization model was developed using a straightforward water balance approach to estimate potential recharge and runoff and allow for determination of the location of recharge within a basin. It provides a means for interbasin comparison of the mechanisms and processes that result in recharge and calculates the potential for recharge under current, wetter, and drier climates. Model estimates of recharge compare favorably with other methods estimating recharge in the Great Basin. Results indicate that net infiltration occurs in less than 5 percent of the area of a typical southwestern basin. Decadal-scale climatic cycles have substantially different influences over the extent of the Great Basin, with the southern portion receiving 220 percent higher recharge than the mean recharge during El Nino years in a positive phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, whereas the northern portion receives only 48 percent higher recharge. In addition, climatic influences result in ground-water traveltimes that are expected to vary on time scales of days to centuries, making decadal-scale climate cycles significant for understanding recharge in arid lands.

Precipitation data for water years 1992 and 1993 from a network of nonrecording gages at Yucca Mountain, Nevada

This report presents precipitation data collected in a storage gage network at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, from October 1, 1991, to September 30, 1993. The measured values indicate total accumulated precipitation for specified time intervals approximately corresponding to separate storm events. Installation of a precipitation monitoring network was initiated in January 1990, and was continually expanded and upgraded throughout the period ending in September 1993. The final network included 3 different gage types for a total of 133 gages at 108 locations within the three drainages overlying the potential repository site. Measured precipitation indicated above average accumulations for water years 1992 and 1993 relative to the most recent estimate of 6.7 inches for long-term average annual precipitation over the area of the network. The total precipitation averaged over the network in 1992 was about 8.2 inches with a maximum of about 11.2 inches measured at borehole USW GA-1. The total precipitation averaged over the network in 1993 was about 10.3 inches with a maximum of about 12.1 inches at neutron-access borehole UE-25 UZN {number_sign}4.

Analysis of Infiltration Uncertainty

In a total-system performance assessment (TSPA), uncertainty in the performance measure (e.g., radiation dose) is estimated by first estimating the uncertain y in the input variables and then propagating that uncertain y through the model system by means of Monte Carlo simulation. This paper discusses uncertainty in surface infiltration, which is one of the input variables needed for performance assessments of the Yucca Mountain site. Infiltration has been represented in recent TSPA simulations by using three discrete infiltration maps (i.e., spatial distributions of infiltration) for each climate state in the calculation of unsaturated-zone flow and transport. A detailed uncertainty analysis of infiltration was carried out for two purposes: to better quantify the possible range of infiltration, and to determine what probability weights should be assigned to the three infiltration cases in a TSPA simulation. The remainder of this paper presents the approach and methodology for the uncertainty analysis, along with a discussion of the results.

Estimating natural recharge in San Gorgonio Pass watersheds, California, 1913–2012

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