Frank H. Fuller

Reconciling Chinese Meat Production and Consumption Data

Suggests that apparent inconsistencies in published statistics for Chinas livestock sector raise questions about the validity of the underlying data. This paper provides a preliminary assessment of the magnitude of the discrepancies, and considers the implications of using published statistics as the basis for research. The authors use stylized facts to construct two alternative data sets that may be closer to actual production and consumption levels.

Consumption of dairy products in urban China: results from Beijing, Shangai and Guangzhou

Using urban survey data collected by the authors in 2001-02, this paper analyses demographics, cultural factors and purchasing behaviours influencing the consumption of fresh milk, yogurt, ice cream and powered milk in Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou, China. Results from estimation of a double-hurdle model of consumption show that income and marketing channels are the key determinants of milk consumption levels; however, education, advertising and convenience play a more important role in consumption of other dairy products. There is some evidence that milk powder, as a consumer good, may be becoming an inferior product in urban China. Finally, the survey data suggest that the growing sophistication of Chinas retail sector is influencing consumption of dairy products. Copyright 2007 The Authors Journal compilation 2007 Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society Inc. .

Chinese Consumer Demand for Animal Products and Implications for U.S. Pork and Poultry Exports

This paper examines Chinese consumer preference for major animal products and assesses the potential impacts of a reduction in Chinas import tariff on its pork and poultry demand and net import. Our analysis suggests that Chinas demand for animal products will continue to grow as income increases. Using a trade model, results of our scenario analysis indicate that a reduction in Chinas import tariffs will significantly increase its net pork and poultry imports and the U.S. will capture most of the increases. Nevertheless, the impact on the market price in China and the U.S. is likely to be very small.

China's Accession to the World Trade Organization: What Is at Stake for Agricultural Markets?

We analyze the impact of Chinas accession to the World Trade Organization on major crop and livestock markets using the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) modeling framework. We incorporate expected changes in consumer income, textile production, and trade policies as exogenous shocks to the baseline model. Following accession, revenues decline in Chinas livestock, grain, and oilseed industries, while cotton production prospers despite increased imports. Chinese consumers benefit from lower food prices, with vegetable oil, dairy, and meat consumption increasing significantly. Argentina, Brazil, Canada, the European Union, and the United States are the greatest beneficiaries from expanded agricultural trade with China.

Innovation dissemination and the market impacts of drought-tolerant, genetically modified rice

Drought-Tolerant (DT) rice technology is a potential tool to improve productivity in regions with insufficient or variable water supply. The impacts of DT rice adoption are analysed using the Arkansas Global Rice Model to demonstrate that DT rice would benefit the early investors in developing and adopting DT varieties. Developing countries could take advantage of the technology if widespread adoption occurs. World rice prices would decrease substantially conferring a potential benefit to consumers. Producer welfare gains are small or negative, but overall impacts may result in increased food security in poor regions of the world.

Market Impacts of Adopting Herbicide-Resistant Rice in the Southern United States

Herbicide-resistant (HR) rice varieties offer U.S. rice producers a powerful tool for control of red rice infestations. However, improved weed control can shorten crop rotations and boost yields, resulting in expanded rice production and lower domestic market prices. Declining market returns diminish the benefits of HR rice adoption and substantially reduce net returns for nonadopters. More competitive prices increase U.S. rice exports, causing a slight decline in world rice prices. The dependence of the rice marketing loan program on world prices prevents loan deficiency payments from adequately offsetting producers’ market revenue losses. U.S. consumers gain from lower rice prices.