Frank P. Brouwers

Incidence and epidemiology of new onset heart failure with preserved vs. reduced ejection fraction in a community-based cohort: 11-year follow-up of PREVEND

AIMS Differences in clinical characteristics and outcome of patients with established heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) and heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) are well established. Data on epidemiology and prediction of new onset HFpEF, compared with HFrEF, have not been described. METHODS AND RESULTS In 8592 subjects of the Prevention of Renal and Vascular End-stage Disease (PREVEND), a community-based, middle-aged cohort study, we performed cause-specific hazard analyses to study the predictive value of risk factors and established cardiovascular biomarkers on new onset HFrEF vs. HFpEF (left ventricular ejection fraction ≤ 40 and ≥ 50%, respectively). A P-value for competing risk (Pcr) <0.10 between HFrEF and HFpEF was considered statistically significant. All potential new onset heart failure cases were reviewed and adjudicated to HFrEF or HFpEF by an independent committee. During a median follow-up of 11.5 years, 374 (4.4%) subjects were diagnosed with heart failure, of which 125 (34%) with HFpEF and 241 (66%) with HFrEF. The average time to diagnosis of new onset HFrEF was 6.6 ± 3.6 years; it was 8.3 ± 3.3 years for HFpEF (P < 0.001). Male gender was associated with new onset HFrEF, whereas female gender with new onset HFpEF (Pcr < 0.001). Higher age and increased N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) increased the risk for both HFpEF and HFrEF, although for age this was stronger for HFpEF (Pcr = 0.018), whereas NT-proBNP was stronger associated with risk for HFrEF (Pcr = 0.083). Current smokers, increased highly sensitive troponin T, and previous myocardial infarction conferred a significantly increased risk for HFrEF, but not for HFpEF (Pcr = 0.093, 0.091, and 0.061, respectively). Conversely, a history of atrial fibrillation, increased urinary albumin excretion (UAE), and cystatin C were significantly more associated with the risk for HFpEF, but not for HFrEF (Pcr < 0.001, 0.061, and 0.033, respectively). The presence of obesity at baseline was associated with comparable prognostic information for both HFpEF and HFrEF. CONCLUSION Higher age, UAE, cystatin C, and history of atrial fibrillation are strong risk factors for new onset HFpEF. This underscores differential pathophysiological mechanisms for both subtypes of heart failure.

Clinical Risk Stratification Optimizes Value of Biomarkers to Predict New Onset Heart Failure in a Community-Based Cohort

Background—We aim to identify and quantify the value of biomarkers for incident new-onset heart failure (HF) in a community-based cohort and subgroups based on cardiovascular risk and evaluate the prognostic value of 13 biomarkers for HF with reduced and preserved ejection fraction. Methods and Results—Thirteen biomarkers reflecting diverse pathophysiologic domains were examined in 8569 HF-free participants in Prevention of Vascular and Renal Endstage Disease (mean age, 49 years; 50% men). Subjects were categorized in 2 risk groups based on cardiovascular history. Incremental value per biomarker was assessed using Harrell C-indices. One hundred sixty-eight subjects (2.4%) were diagnosed with new-onset HF in the low-risk group (n=6915; Framingham Risk Score, 5.9%) and 206 (12.2%) subjects in the high-risk group (n=1654; Framingham Risk Score, 18.6%). The association of natriuretic peptides, adrenomedullin, endothelin, and galectin-3 with new-onset HF was stronger in the high-risk group (all P<0.05). Troponin-T, high-sensitive C-reactive protein, urinary albumin excretion, and cystatin-C had similar risk for new-onset HF between both risk groups. The best model for new-onset HF included the combination of N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide, troponin-T, and urinary albumin excretion, increasing model accuracy to 0.81 (9.5%, P<0.001) in the high-risk group. Except for a modest effect of cystatin-C, no biomarker was associated with increased risk for HF with preserved ejection fraction. Conclusions—Risk stratification increases the incremental value per biomarker to predict new-onset HF, especially HF with reduced ejection fraction. We suggest that routine biomarker testing should be limited to the use of natriuretic peptides and troponin-T in patients with increased cardiovascular risk.

Influence of age on the prognostic value of mid-regional pro-adrenomedullin in the general population

Objective Experimental studies have shown that adrenomedullin (ADM) has an important role in circulatory homeostasis. Mid-regional pro-ADM (MR-proADM) is a stable form of ADM. Observational studies found an important association with age, body mass index and kidney function. The aim of this study was to evaluate the prognostic performance of MR-proADM in the general population, controlling for these potential confounders. Methods 7903 subjects (mean age 49±13 years, 49% male) from the Prevention of REnal and Vascular ENd-stage Disease (PREVEND) cohort with a median follow-up of 10.5 years were enrolled in a prospective cohort study. Results Mean baseline MR-proADM was 0.39±0.14 nmol/l. In cross-sectional analyses, age, blood pressure, C reactive protein, cystatin-C, N-terminal pro-brain type natriuretic peptide and urinary albumin excretion remained as independent determinants of MR-proADM. In prospective analyses, MR-proADM was associated with the primary endpoint (combined cardiovascular mortality and cardiovascular morbidity), with event rates ranging from 8% in the lowest quintile to 45% in the highest quintile (p for trend <0.001) independent of age, sex, components of the Framingham risk score and other cardiovascular markers. Overall Net Reclassification Improvement against the Framingham risk score was 2.2%, which was non-significant. However, significant modification of the effect of MR-proADM on outcome by age was observed. In subjects aged ≤70 years (N=7475), 8.8% were correctly reclassified in a higher risk category (p=0.017) and 3.4% in a lower risk category (p<0.001). In subjects aged >70 years (N=428) there was no improvement of reclassification (p=0.32). Conclusion This study gives a detailed overview of the distribution of ADM in a general population and provides evidence that it is a potent and interesting biomarker in predicting cardiovascular events. These results seem especially applicable to younger subjects.

Long-term effects of fosinopril and pravastatin on cardiovascular events in subjects with microalbuminuria: Ten years of follow-up of Prevention of Renal and Vascular End-stage Disease Intervention Trial (PREVEND IT)

BACKGROUND The PREVEND IT investigated whether treatment targeted at lowering urinary albumin excretion (UAE) would reduce adverse cardiovascular events. We obtained extended follow-up data to approximately 10 years to investigate the long-term effects of fosinopril 20 mg and pravastatin 40 mg on cardiovascular outcomes in subjects with UAE >15 mg per 24 hours. METHODS The original PREVEND IT consisted of 864 participants and 839 survivors after 4 years. For every survivor, the primary end point determined by the combined incidence of cardiovascular mortality and hospitalization for cardiovascular morbidity was registered in several national databases and electronic hospital systems. RESULTS Mean total follow-up of the extended PREVEND IT was 9.5 years (range 9.4-10.7 years). Four years of treatment with fosinopril was not associated with a reduction in the primary end point compared with placebo (hazard ratio 0.87, 95% CI 0.61-1.24 [P = .42]) during long-term follow-up. After 9.5 years, subjects with a baseline UAE in the upper quintile (>50 mg/24 hours) had a total event rate of 29.5% and were at a higher risk for developing cardiovascular disease compared with less UAE (hazard ratio 2.03, 95% CI 1.38-2.97 [P ≤ .01]). In addition, 4 years of fosinopril treatment resulted in a risk reduction of 45% (95% CI 6%-75% [P = .04]) in this group compared with placebo. Subjects originally assigned to pravastatin had no overall risk reduction in the primary end point (P = .99). CONCLUSIONS Elevated UAE is associated with increased cardiovascular mortality and morbidity after 9.5 years of follow-up, with a doubling of the risk if the UAE is >50 mg per 24 hours. In this group, the benefits of 4-year treatment with fosinopril were sustained during posttrial follow-up for cardiovascular mortality and morbidity. We propose that UAE be used to estimate risk in the general population and that large clinical trials be designed to confirm the hypothesis that angiotensin-converting enzyme-inhibitor treatment may be beneficial in patients with mildly elevated UAE despite the absence of other comorbidities.

Genome-wide association study on plasma levels of midregional-proadrenomedullin and C-terminal-pro-endothelin-1.

Endothelin-1 (ET-1) and adrenomedullin (ADM) are circulating vasoactive peptides involved in vascular homeostasis and endothelial function. Elevated levels of plasma ET-1 and ADM, and their biologically stable surrogates, C-terminal-pro-endothelin-1 (CT-pro-ET-1) and midregional proadrenomedullin (MR-pro-ADM), are predictors of cardiac death and heart failure. We studied the association of common genetic variation with MR-pro-ADM and CT-pro-ET-1 by genome-wide association analyses in 3444 participants of European ancestry. We performed follow-up genotyping of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that showed suggestive or significant association in the discovery stage in additional 3230 participants. The minor variants in KLKB1 (rs4253238) and F12 (rs2731672), both part of the kallikrein-kinin system, were associated with higher MR-pro-ADM (P=4.46E-52 and P=5.90E-24, respectively) and higher CT-pro-ET-1 levels (P=1.23E-122 and P=1.26E-67, respectively). Epistasis analyses showed a significant interaction between the sentinel SNP of F12 and KLKB1 for both traits. In addition, a variant near the ADM gene (rs2957692) was associated with MR-pro-ADM (P=1.05E-12) and a variant in EDN-1 (rs5370) was associated with CT-pro-ET-1 (P=1.49E-27). The total phenotypic variation explained by the genetic variants was 7.2% for MR-pro-ADM and 14.6% for CT-pro-ET-1. KLKB1 encodes plasma kallikrein, a proteolytic enzyme known to cleave high-molecular-weight kininogen to bradykinin and prorenin to renin. We cloned the precursors of ADM and ET-1 and demonstrated that purified plasma kallikrein can cleave these recombinant proteins into multiple smaller peptides. The discovery of genetic variants in the kallikrein-kinin system and in the genes encoding pre-pro-ET-1 and pre-pro-ADM provides novel insights into the (co-)regulation of these vasoactive peptides in the vascular system.

Predicting Heart Failure With Preserved and Reduced Ejection Fraction: The International Collaboration on Heart Failure Subtypes

Background—Heart failure (HF) is a prevalent and deadly disease, and preventive strategies focused on at-risk individuals are needed. Current HF prediction models have not examined HF subtypes. We sought to develop and validate risk prediction models for HF with preserved and reduced ejection fraction (HFpEF, HFrEF). Methods and Results—Of 28,820 participants from 4 community-based cohorts, 982 developed incident HFpEF and 909 HFrEF during a median follow-up of 12 years. Three cohorts were combined, and a 2:1 random split was used for derivation and internal validation, with the fourth cohort as external validation. Models accounted for multiple competing risks (death, other HF subtype, and unclassified HF). The HFpEF-specific model included age, sex, systolic blood pressure, body mass index, antihypertensive treatment, and previous myocardial infarction; it had good discrimination in derivation (c-statistic 0.80; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.78–0.82) and validation samples (internal: 0.79; 95% CI, 0.77–0.82 and external: 0.76; 95% CI: 0.71–0.80). The HFrEF-specific model additionally included smoking, left ventricular hypertrophy, left bundle branch block, and diabetes mellitus; it had good discrimination in derivation (c-statistic 0.82; 95% CI, 0.80–0.84) and validation samples (internal: 0.80; 95% CI, 0.78–0.83 and external: 0.76; 95% CI, 0.71–0.80). Age was more strongly associated with HFpEF, and male sex, left ventricular hypertrophy, bundle branch block, previous myocardial infarction, and smoking with HFrEF (P value for each comparison ⩽0.02). Conclusions—We describe and validate risk prediction models for HF subtypes and show good discrimination in a large sample. Some risk factors differed between HFpEF and HFrEF, supporting the notion of pathogenetic differences among HF subtypes.Background— Heart failure (HF) is a prevalent and deadly disease, and preventive strategies focused on at-risk individuals are needed. Current HF prediction models have not examined HF subtypes. We sought to develop and validate risk prediction models for HF with preserved and reduced ejection fraction (HFpEF, HFrEF). Methods and Results— Of 28,820 participants from 4 community-based cohorts, 982 developed incident HFpEF and 909 HFrEF during a median follow-up of 12 years. Three cohorts were combined, and a 2:1 random split was used for derivation and internal validation, with the fourth cohort as external validation. Models accounted for multiple competing risks (death, other HF subtype, and unclassified HF). The HFpEF-specific model included age, sex, systolic blood pressure, body mass index, antihypertensive treatment, and previous myocardial infarction; it had good discrimination in derivation (c-statistic 0.80; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.78–0.82) and validation samples (internal: 0.79; 95% CI, 0.77–0.82 and external: 0.76; 95% CI: 0.71–0.80). The HFrEF-specific model additionally included smoking, left ventricular hypertrophy, left bundle branch block, and diabetes mellitus; it had good discrimination in derivation (c-statistic 0.82; 95% CI, 0.80–0.84) and validation samples (internal: 0.80; 95% CI, 0.78–0.83 and external: 0.76; 95% CI, 0.71–0.80). Age was more strongly associated with HFpEF, and male sex, left ventricular hypertrophy, bundle branch block, previous myocardial infarction, and smoking with HFrEF ( P value for each comparison ≤0.02). Conclusions— We describe and validate risk prediction models for HF subtypes and show good discrimination in a large sample. Some risk factors differed between HFpEF and HFrEF, supporting the notion of pathogenetic differences among HF subtypes.

Comparing New Onset Heart Failure with Reduced Ejection Fraction and New Onset Heart Failure with Preserved Ejection Fraction: An Epidemiologic Perspective

The incidence and prevalence of heart failure is increasing, especially heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) relative to heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF). For both HFrEF and HFpEF, there is need to shift our focus from secondary to primary prevention. Detailed epidemiologic data on both HFpEF and HFrEF are needed to allow early identification of at-risk subjects. Current cohorts with new onset heart failure lack uniformity with respect to diagnosis, follow-up, and population characteristics, but most important, fail to distinguish between HFpEF and HFrEF. Studies on prevalent heart failure show ischemic heart disease as the predominant risk factor for HFrEF, while hypertension, atrial fibrillation, and diabetes are risk factors for HFpEF. As it becomes increasingly clear that both subtypes of heart failure are different syndromes, new cohorts and trials are necessary to obtain separate data on both subtypes of heart failure.

Serial galectin-3 and future cardiovascular disease in the general population

Background Lifetime risk for cardiovascular (CV) disease is high but predicting incident events on an individual level remains difficult. Single measurements of galectin-3, a marker of tissue fibrosis, predict mortality and new-onset heart failure (HF). Persistently elevated levels may indicate a clinically silent disease process. Objectives Our aim was to establish the value of serial galectin-3 measurements to predict CV outcomes in the general population. Methods Plasma galectin-3 was measured in the Prevention of REnal and Vascular ENd-stage Disease (PREVEND) study at baseline and after ∼4 years. Changes in serial galectin-3 were expressed as categorical changes or absolute change from baseline and were related to subsequent outcome. Results Serial galectin-3 was measured in 5958 subjects (mean age 49±12 years; 49% female). The median duration of follow-up was 8.3 years. Persistently elevated galectin-3 (defined as highest quartile at baseline and highest quartile during visit 2, n=757 subjects) was associated with a higher risk for new-onset HF, CV mortality, all-cause mortality, new-onset atrial fibrillation and CV events, compared with subjects with non-persistently elevated galectin-3. After multivariable adjustments for baseline characteristics, serial galectin-3 remained an independent predictor of new-onset HF (HR 1.85 (1.10–3.13); p=0.02) but not for other outcomes. Serial measurements provided more accurate prognostic value to predict new-onset HF, compared with a single baseline measurement (Harrells C: 0.72 (0.68–0.75) vs 0.68 (0.65–0.72); p=0.002, respectively) with significant net reclassification. Conclusions Persistently elevated galectin-3 predicts new-onset HF after adjustment for covariates, and serial measurements provide more accurate prognostic information compared with single determination of galectin-3. This may help to identify individuals who are at risk for incident HF and might provide a measure to monitor interventions.

Urinary potassium excretion and risk of cardiovascular events

BACKGROUND Observational studies on dietary potassium and risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) have reported weak-to-modest inverse associations. Long-term prospective studies with multiple 24-h urinary samples for accurate estimation of habitual potassium intake, however, are scarce. OBJECTIVE We examined the association between urinary potassium excretion and risk of blood pressure-related cardiovascular outcomes. DESIGN We studied 7795 subjects free of cardiovascular events at baseline in the Prevention of Renal and Vascular End-stage Disease study, a prospective, observational cohort with oversampling of subjects with albuminuria at baseline. Main cardiovascular outcomes were CVD [including ischemic heart disease (IHD), stroke, and vascular interventions], IHD, stroke, and new-onset heart failure (HF). Potassium excretion was measured in two 24-h urine specimens at the start of the study (1997-1998) and midway through follow-up (2001-2003). RESULTS Baseline median urinary potassium excretion was 70 mmol/24 h (IQR: 56-84 mmol/24 h). During a median follow-up of 10.5 y (IQR: 9.9-10.8 y), a total of 641 CVD, 465 IHD, 172 stroke, and 265 HF events occurred. After adjustment for age and sex, inverse associations were observed between potassium excretion and risk [HR per each 26-mmol/24-h (1-g/d) increase; 95% CI] of CVD (0.87; 0.78, 0.97) and IHD (0.86; 0.75, 0.97), as well as nonsignificant inverse associations for risk of stroke (0.85; 0.68, 1.06) and HF (0.94; 0.80, 1.10). After further adjustment for body mass index, smoking, alcohol consumption, education, and urinary sodium and magnesium excretion, urinary potassium excretion was not statistically significantly associated with risk (multivariable-adjusted HR per 1-g/d increment; 95% CI) of CVD (0.96; 0.85, 1.09), IHD (0.90; 0.81, 1.04), stroke (1.09; 0.86, 1.39), or HF (0.99; 0.83, 1.18). No associations were observed between the sodium-to-potassium excretion ratio and risk of CVD, IHD, stroke, or HF. CONCLUSION In this cohort with oversampling of subjects with albuminuria at baseline, urinary potassium excretion was not independently associated with a lower risk of cardiovascular events.

Association of Cardiovascular Biomarkers With Incident Heart Failure With Preserved and Reduced Ejection Fraction

Importance Nearly half of all patients with heart failure have preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) as opposed to reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF), yet associations of biomarkers with future heart failure subtype are incompletely understood. Objective To evaluate the associations of 12 cardiovascular biomarkers with incident HFpEF vs HFrEF among adults from the general population. Design, Setting, and Participants This study included 4 longitudinal community-based cohorts: the Cardiovascular Health Study (1989-1990; 1992-1993 for supplemental African-American cohort), the Framingham Heart Study (1995-1998), the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (2000-2002), and the Prevention of Renal and Vascular End-stage Disease study (1997-1998). Each cohort had prospective ascertainment of incident HFpEF and HFrEF. Data analysis was performed from June 25, 2015, to November 9, 2017. Exposures The following biomarkers were examined: N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide or brain natriuretic peptide, high-sensitivity troponin T or I, C-reactive protein (CRP), urinary albumin to creatinine ratio (UACR), renin to aldosterone ratio, D-dimer, fibrinogen, soluble suppressor of tumorigenicity, galectin-3, cystatin C, plasminogen activator inhibitor 1, and interleukin 6. Main Outcomes and Measures Development of incident HFpEF and incident HFrEF. Results Among the 22 756 participants in these 4 cohorts (12 087 women and 10 669 men; mean [SD] age, 60 [13] years) in the study, during a median follow-up of 12 years, 633 participants developed incident HFpEF, and 841 developed HFrEF. In models adjusted for clinical risk factors of heart failure, 2 biomarkers were significantly associated with incident HFpEF: UACR (hazard ratio [HR], 1.33; 95% CI, 1.20-1.48; P < .001) and natriuretic peptides (HR, 1.27; 95% CI, 1.16-1.40; P < .001), with suggestive associations for high-sensitivity troponin (HR, 1.11; 95% CI, 1.03-1.19; P = .008), plasminogen activator inhibitor 1 (HR, 1.22; 95% CI, 1.03-1.45; P = .02), and fibrinogen (HR, 1.12; 95% CI, 1.03-1.22; P = .01). By contrast, 6 biomarkers were associated with incident HFrEF: natriuretic peptides (HR, 1.54; 95% CI, 1.41-1.68; P < .001), UACR (HR, 1.21; 95% CI, 1.11-1.32; P < .001), high-sensitivity troponin (HR, 1.37; 95% CI, 1.29-1.46; P < .001), cystatin C (HR, 1.19; 95% CI, 1.11-1.27; P < .001), D-dimer (HR, 1.22; 95% CI, 1.11-1.35; P < .001), and CRP (HR, 1.19; 95% CI, 1.11-1.28; P < .001). When directly compared, natriuretic peptides, high-sensitivity troponin, and CRP were more strongly associated with HFrEF compared with HFpEF. Conclusions and Relevance Biomarkers of renal dysfunction, endothelial dysfunction, and inflammation were associated with incident HFrEF. By contrast, only natriuretic peptides and UACR were associated with HFpEF. These findings highlight the need for future studies focused on identifying novel biomarkers of the risk of HFpEF.