Frank Wechsung

Elevated CO2 stimulates soil respiration in a FACE wheat field

Summary Understanding the response of soil carbon (C) dynamics to higher atmospheric CO 2 concentrations is critical for evaluating the potential for soil C sequestration on time scales of decades to centuries. Here, we report on changes in soil respiration under Free-Air CO 2 Enrichment (FACE) where spring wheat was grown in an open field at two CO 2 concentrations (ambient and ambient+200 μmol mol −1 ), under natural meteorological conditions. FACE increased soil respiration rates by 40—70% during the peak of wheat growth. On the FACE plots, stable C isotopic composition of soil CO 2 was used to partition the soil CO 2 flux into C from rhizosphere respiration and decomposition of pre-existing C. Decomposition contributed 100% of the soil CO 2 flux before crop growth commenced, and only 35—45% of the flux at the peak of the growing season. Decomposition rates were not correlated with soil temperature, but rhizosphere respiration rates were strongly correlated with green leaf area index. Ein Verstandnis der Antwort der Kohlenstoff-Dynamik (C) im Boden auf hohere CO 2 -Konzentrationen in der Atmosphare ist bedeutsam fur die Bewertung des Potentials fur die C-Sequestration in Zeitraumen von Jahrzehnten bis Jahrhunderten. Hier berichten wir uber Veranderungen in der Bodenatmung unter Free-Air CO 2 Enrichment (FACE), bei dem Sommerweizen in einem offenen Feld unter zwei CO 2 -Konzentrationen (Umgebung und Umgebung + 200 (mol mol −1 ) und unter naturlichen meteorologischen Bedingungen angebaut wurde. FACE erhohte die Bodenatmungsraten um 40—70% wahrend des Maximums des Weizenwachstums. Auf den FACE Plots wurde die Zusammensetzung an stabilen C Isotopen des Boden-CO 2 genutzt, um den Boden CO 2 -Fluss zu C durch Rhizospharen-Atmung von der Zersetzung von zuvor existierendem C zu trennen. Die Zersetzung trug 100% des Boden-CO 2 -Flusses vor dem Beginn des Weizenwachstums bei, und nur 35—45% des Flusses wahrend des Maximums des Wachstums. Die Zersetzungsraten waren nicht mit der Bodentemperatur korreliert, aber die Rhizospharen-Atmungsraten waren eng korreliert mit dem grunen Blattflachen-Index.

Implications of complexity and uncertainty for integrated modelling and impact assessment in river basins

The paper focuses on implications of complexity and uncertainty in climate change impact assessment at the river basin and regional scales. The study was performed using the process-based ecohydrological spatially semi distributed model SWIM (Soil and Water Integrated Model). The model integrates hydrological processes, vegetation/crop growth, erosion and nutrient dynamics in river basins. It was developed from the SWAT and MATSALU models for climate and land use change impact assessment. The study area is the German part of the Elbe River basin (about 100,000km^2). It is representative for semi-humid landscapes in Europe, where water availability during the summer season is the limiting factor for plant growth and crop yield. The validation method followed the multi-scale, multi-site and multi-criteria approach and enabled to reproduce (a) water discharge and nutrient load at the river outlet along with (b) local ecohydrological processes like water table dynamics in subbasins, nutrient fluxes and vegetation growth dynamics at multiple scales and sites. The uncertainty of climate impacts was evaluated using comprehensive Monte Carlo simulation experiments.

Integrating groundwater dynamics in regional hydrological modelling

Abstract The paper presents an integrated catchment model and a method with which it is possible to analyse local water table dynamics inside subbasins along with river flow on the regional scale. A simple but comprehensive mechanistic groundwater module coupled with the eco-hydrological model SWIM (Soil and Water Integrated Model), which integrates hydrological processes, vegetation, erosion and nutrient dynamics at the watershed scale, was used in the study. The reliability of the model results was tested under well defined boundary conditions by comparing the results with those from a two dimensional numeric groundwater model under steady-state and transient conditions as well as with observed data for two meso-scale basins, using contour maps of the long term mean water table, observed groundwater level data in wells and observed river discharge. Especially in lowland catchments, where the water table is relatively shallow, the dynamics of river discharge are mainly influenced by changes in groundwater contribution to river flow. However, a correct reproduction of river discharge by hydrological models does not guarantee the adequacy of simulated spatio-temporal dynamics of soil moisture, water fluxes and groundwater in the basin. But even though the primary purpose of distributed hydrological models is to reproduce river discharge and water fluxes in the entire catchment, they are often validated using only the observed river discharge at the basin outlet for comparisons. The additional use of groundwater observations for model validation can serve as a measure to overcome the problem. The study area is located in the lowland part of the Elbe river basin, which is representative for semi-humid landscapes in Europe, where water availability during the summer season is the main limiting factor for plant growth and crop yields. The importance of adequate reproduction of the groundwater dynamics is illustrated in an investigation of a decreasing trend in regional groundwater level.

Landscape response functions for biodiversity—assessing the impact of land-use changes at the county level

Abstract Assessing the impact of land-use change on biodiversity is an important task in the context of global-change scenarios. Here, conceptual considerations, descriptions of a model solution and results of a case study for the regional scale are presented. Land-use was seen as an integrative variable, which depends on natural, as well as on socioeconomic parameters. Economic processes have been externalized by using results of economy driven base-scenarios about land-use change at the county level. Tendencies from these scenarios were extracted, expanded to a set of sub-scenarios, and transformed into land-use maps by a land-use model. These land-use maps were evaluated with respect to biodiversity at the ecosystem level. The results of the evaluation of the single sub-scenarios were summarized to response functions, which describe the sensitivity of landscape attributes toward land-use changes. It is stated that biodiversity is not a generic indicator and can only be assessed after defining the context. Here, only ecosystems with low hemeroby (‘semi-natural’ ecosystems) were considered. The concept of hemeroby, which describes the degree of human disturbance on ecosystems, was used as a qualitative complement to the quantitative concept of biodiversity. Biodiversity was assessed by means of six indicators for three aspects of biodiversity: composition, structure and function. The model was applied in a case study dealing with the impact of extensification of grassland on biodiversity in the county Havelland, west of Berlin. In general, the compositional aspect of biodiversity demonstrated the clearest response. Structural diversity reacted only moderately, but a strong impact of land-use change on connectivity was indicated by an increasing proximity of semi-natural biotopes. The latter was proven by evaluating the connectivity of semi-natural grasslands from the perspective of the white stork (Ciconia ciconia). All response functions showed a high heterogeneity in spatial and functional aspect. At the landscape level, the heterogeneity was hidden behind a supposed moderate reaction of landscape. This underlines the demand for a spatially explicit realization of land-use scenarios and for the consideration of a wide range of scenarios by means of response functions.

Acclimation response of spring wheat in a free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE) atmosphere with variable soil nitrogen regimes. 2. Net assimilation and stomatal conductance of leaves.

Atmospheric CO2 concentration continues to rise. It is important, therefore, to determine what acclimatory changes will occur within the photosynthetic apparatus of wheat (Triticum aestivum L. cv. Yecora Rojo) grown in a future high-CO2 world at ample and limited soil N contents. Wheat was grown in an open field exposed to the CO2 concentration of ambient air [370 μmol (CO2) mol−1; Control] and air enriched to ∼200 μmol (CO2) mol−1 above ambient using a Free-Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE) apparatus (main plot). A High (35 g m−2) or Low (7 and 1.5 g m−2 for 1996 and 1997, respectfully) level of N was applied to each half of the main CO2 treatment plots (split-plot). Under High-N, FACE reduced stomatal conductance (gs) by 30% at mid-morning (2 h prior to solar noon), 36% at midday (solar noon) and 27% at mid-afternoon (2.5 h after solar noon), whereas under Low-N, gs was reduced by as much as 31% at mid-morning, 44% at midday and 28% at mid-afternoon compared with Control. But, no significant CO2 × N interaction effects occurred. Across seasons and growth stages, daily accumulation of carbon (A′) was 27% greater in FACE than Control. High-N increased A′ by 18% compared with Low-N. In contrast to results for gs, however, significant CO2 × N interaction effects occurred because FACE increased A′ by 30% at High-N, but by only 23% at Low-N. FACE enhanced the seasonal accumulation of carbon (A′′) by 29% during 1996 (moderate N-stress), but by only 21% during 1997 (severe N-stress). These results support the premise that in a future high-CO2 world an acclimatory (down-regulation) response in the photosynthetic apparatus of field-grown wheat is anticipated. They also demonstrate, however, that the stimulatory effect of a rise in atmospheric CO2 on carbon gain in wheat can be maintained if nutrients such as nitrogen are in ample supply.

May land use change reduce the water deficiency problem caused by reduced brown coal mining in the state of Brandenburg

Abstract Surface mining alters the water regime not only locally, but also regionally. The reduced brown coal mining in the south-east of the state Brandenburg (Germany) leads to decreasing river discharge and consequently to a shortage in the water supply. Land use change is one possible option to counteract this development. In this simulation study, we explored the impact of temporary and permanent set-aside of arable land on Brandenburg’s regional water balance. Temporary and permanent set-aside were considered as major measures towards deintensification of agriculture. Simulations were performed using the regional ecohydrological model SWIM, which integrates hydrological processes, vegetation growth, erosion and nutrient dynamics. The model was used to simulate the consequences of different land use change scenarios on main components of the regional water balance. Changes in the use of arable land altered clearly its water balance. The impact of these changes on the regional water balance for Brandenburg did not exceed ±10% for its single components. Opposite tendencies were established in the simulations by contrasting effects of temporary and permanent set-aside of arable cropland. While temporary set-aside increased runoff from the whole area up to 6.7% due to lower evapotranspiration and higher soil moisture in arable land, the conversion of agricultural land within river corridors to meadows had an opposite effect on regional runoff (6.9% decrease) due to higher water retention coefficients and higher evapotranspiration losses. Therefore, only temporary set-aside may compensate to some extent for the anticipated decrease in river discharge.

Mesoscale ecohydrological modelling to analyse regional effects of climate change

Hydrological processes and crop growth were simulated for the state of Brandenburg (Germany) using the hydrological/vegetation/water quality model SWIM, which can be applied for mesoscale river basins or regions. Hydrological validation was carried out for three mesoscale river basins in the area. The crop growth module was validated regionally for winter wheat, winter barley and maize. After that the analysis of climate change impacts on hydrology and crop growth was performed, using a transient 1.5 K scenario of climate change for Brandenburg and restricting the crop spectrum to the three above mentioned crops. According to the scenario, precipitation is expected to increase. The impact study was done comparing simulation results for two scenario periods 2022–2030 and 2042–2050 with those for a reference period 1981–1992. The atmospheric CO2 concentrations for the reference period and two scenario periods were set to 346, 406 and 436 ppm, respectively. Two different methods – an empirical one and a semi-mechanistic one – were used for adjustment of net photosynthesis to altered CO2. With warming, the model simulates an increase of evapotranspiration (+9.5%, +15.4%) and runoff (+7.0%, +17.2%). The crop yield was only slightly altered under the “climate change only” scenario (no CO2 fertilization effect) for barley and maize, and it was reduced for wheat (−6.2%, −10.3%). The impact of higher atmospheric CO2 compensated for climate-related wheat yield losses, and resulted in an increased yield both for barley and maize compared to the reference scenario. The simulated combined effect of climate change and elevated CO2 on crop yield was about 7% higher for the C3 crops when the CO2 and temperature interaction was ignored. The assumption that stomatal control of transpiration is taking place at the regional scale led to further increase in crop yield, which was larger for maize than for wheat and barley. The regional water balance was practically not affected by the partial stimulation of net photosynthesis due to higher CO2, while the introduction of stomatal control of regional transpiration reduced evapotranspiration and enlarged notably runoff and ground water recharge.

Integrated assessment of cropland soil carbon sensitivity to recent and future climate in the Elbe River basin

Abstract Carbon storage in soils is sensitive to changing climatic conditions, potentially increasing C fluxes from soils to the atmosphere. This study provides an assessment of recent climate variability (1951–2000) and potential future (2001–2055) climate change impacts on soil C storage for croplands in the German part of the Elbe River basin. Results indicate that recently (1991–2000) croplands are a net source of carbon (net annual flux of 10.8 g C m−2 year−1 to the atmosphere). The recent temperature trend for the years 1951–2000 (+0.8 K in summer and +1.4 K in winter mean temperature) alone have already caused a significant net flux of 1.8 g C m−2 year−1 to the atmosphere. Future climate change (2001–2055) derived from regionalised meteorological properties driven by the IPCC-SRES A1 scenario results in an increased net C flux of an additional 4 g C m−2 year−1 in comparison to the reference period (1951–2000). Uncertainties attached to C flux results are estimated with a standard error of 6%. Besides climate-induced alteration of net C fluxes, considerable impacts on groundwater recharge (–45.7%), river flow (–43.2%) and crop yield (–11% to −15% as a basin-wide average for different cereals) were obtained. Recent past and expected temperature changes within the Elbe basin predominantly contribute to the increase of net C fluxes to the atmosphere. However, decreased crop growth (crop yields) and decreased expected water availability counteract even higher net C losses as soil C turnover is reduced through less C input (less crop growth) and drier soil conditions (decrease in water availability). Based on this study, present-day and potential future development of net C fluxes, water components and crop yields were quantified. This allows integrated assessment of different ecosystem services (C storage, water availability and crop yield) under climate change in river basins.

Direct aerosol effects during periods of solar dimming and brightening hidden in the regression residuals: Evidence from Potsdam measurements

A recent empirical study of Stanhill et al. [2014], which was based on the Angstrom-Prescott relationship between global radiation and sunshine duration, was evaluated. The parameters of this relationship seemed to be rather stable across the dimming and brightening periods. Thus, the authors concluded that the variation in global radiation is more influenced by changes in cloud cover and sunshine duration than by the direct aerosol effects. In our study, done for the Potsdam station (one of six globally distributed stations, the source of one of the longest observational records and closely located to former hotspots of aerosol emission), we tested and rejected the hypothesis that the dimming of global radiation directly caused by aerosols is negligible. The residuals of the Angstrom-Prescott regression reveal a statistically significant positive temporal trend and a temporal level segmentation. The latter was consistent with the temporal emission patterns around Potsdam. The trend in the residuals only disappeared when the model intercept varied according to the temporal level segmentation. The magnitude of the direct aerosol effect on the level changes in global radiation derived from the modified Angstrom-Prescott relationship was in the range indicated in previous studies. Thus from here, a specific request cannot be made for a revision of current climate models state-of-the-art representation of both the cooling effect directly caused by aerosols and the temperature sensitivity to the increase of greenhouse gases.

A methodological critique on using temperature-conditioned resampling for climate projections as in the paper of Gerstengarbe et al. (2013) winter storm- and summer thunderstorm-related loss events in Theoretical and Applied Climatology (TAC)

The STatistical Analogue Resampling Scheme (STARS) statistical approach was recently used to project changes of climate variables in Germany corresponding to a supposed degree of warming. We show by theoretical and empirical analysis that STARS simply transforms interannual gradients between warmer and cooler seasons into climate trends. According to STARS projections, summers in Germany will inevitably become dryer and winters wetter under global warming. Due to the dominance of negative interannual correlations between precipitation and temperature during the year, STARS has a tendency to generate a net annual decrease in precipitation under mean German conditions. Furthermore, according to STARS, the annual level of global radiation would increase in Germany. STARS can be still used, e.g., for generating scenarios in vulnerability and uncertainty studies. However, it is not suitable as a climate downscaling tool to access risks following from changing climate for a finer than general circulation model (GCM) spatial scale.