Fred Grünfeld

1. Introducing the Research: Questions and Methodology

This introductory chapter presents an overview of this book, which is a part of a larger research project on the failure to prevent genocide, ethnic cleansing and gross human rights violations in Rwanda (1994), Srebrenica (1995) and Darfur (2003). The book compares the qualitative evidence collected for these three conflicts and makes some broader generalisations. It sets out the theoretical framework which is based on theories of International Relations and foreign policy making. The book also applies and illustrates concisely the theoretical framework for the genocides in Rwanda and Srebrenica with a particular focus on explaining the reasons for the failure to prevent the genocide. The book further introduces Darfur, the land and its people, and gives a brief historical context to the conflict. It discusses thoroughly how and why international decision makers responded to the situation in Darfur. The book ends with the adoption of Security Councils Resolution 1593.Keywords: Darfur; foreign policy making; human rights violations; Rwanda; Security Councils Resolution 1593; Srebrenica

4. A Background of Darfur

This chapter sketches the historical, socio-economic and political context of Darfur discussed in the book. Darfur is located in the west of Sudan bordering Chad, Central African Republic and South Sudan. The region of Darfur obtained its name from one of the main people living in the area, the Fur. The diversity of the people across the region of Darfur has been attributed to its place on old trade routes between north-south and east-west Africa, as well as to the nomadic people that travel around. Darfur came under foreign rule for a limited period of time at the final stage of the Ottoman-Egyptian expansion into Sudan. Under the Al-Bashir regime, and with some Libyan involvement, tribal conflict in Darfur became more ideologically racist in favour of Arab dominance. The argument that the root causes, which include poverty, climate, political institutions and ethnicities, are the key to a political solution in Darfur is still debated.Keywords: Africa; Al-Bashir regime; Central African Republic; Darfur; Fur; Ottoman-Egyptian; political institutions; tribal conflict

10. Epilogue: The International Response to Darfur after 2005

This chapter sketches out the main measures taken by third parties to the conflict as well as the security situation in Darfur since 2005. The international actions in the rest of 2005 and the beginning of 2006 were focused on securing a peace agreement, which was considered a prerequisite for the transition from an AU to a UN peacekeeping force. One of the major reasons behind the policy of making Advanced Mission in Sudan (AMIS) a UN mission was the donor fatigue of Western countries, who were the major financial sponsors of the AU force, coupled with concerns about AMIS limited effectiveness. In 2007, the UN and EU authorised two complementary military missions to be deployed in Sudans neighbouring countries Chad and the Central African Republic. Hardly any progress was made in 2008 with the negotiations. The security situation in Darfur has worsened again since the end of 2010.Keywords: AU force; Central African Republic; Darfur; Darfur peace agreement; Sudan

2. Theories in International Relations

This chapter presents the theories used to explain the behaviour of the bystanders at the state and international levels. This includes the theories of pluralism/liberalism which focus on domestic influences on the foreign policy-making. In addition, the decision-making models developed by Allison in relation to the 1961 Cuba crisis will be relied upon as well as psychological and cognitive mechanisms. The dominant theory of International Relations with respect to peace and security is (neo)realism. The chapter studies the role and behaviour of groups and bureaucracies as well as the impact of domestic sources on foreign policy-making. It includes cognitive practices such as cognitive dissonance and wishful thinking, as well as heuristic devices such as analogies and stereotypes. The chapter presents three decision-making models: Rational Policy Model, Organisational Process Model and Bureaucratic Politics Model, as developed by Allison with respect to the Cuban missile crisis.Keywords: bureaucratic politics model; foreign policy-making; liberalist InternationalRelations theories; organisational process model; rational policy model; theories of pluralism/liberalism

6. First Actions and Increased Public Outcry: March 2004–May 2004

This chapter focuses primarily on the actions of bystanders, and in particular on the way they attempted to respond to the crisis in Darfur, while taking into account their wider interest in Sudan and relations with other states and organisations. In spite of the growing concern for Darfur and the recurrent articles seemingly regurgitating the same information, Janjaweed attacks intensified at the beginning of March 2004. An agreement was signed on 8 April. The ceasefire agreement foresaw a joint monitoring ceasefire commission and future talks on political issues. The NDjamena ceasefire agreement established a ceasefire monitoring commission, consisting of representatives of all parties of the agreements. The US and European countries planned to adopt a resolution on Sudan during the 60th session of the UN Commission of Human Rights in April, with a special reference to Darfur. The pressure to discuss the situation in Darfur in the Security Council increased.Keywords: Darfur; Janjaweed attacks; NDjamena ceasefire agreement; Security Council; Sudan; UN Commission of Human Rights

3. Case Studies: Rwanda (1994) and Srebrenica (1995)

This chapter examines the genocides in Rwanda and Srebrenica. All three situations, which include Rwanda, Srebrenica and Darfur, took place after the end of the Cold War, which made foreign intervention somehow easier because the world was no longer divided between Eastern and Western spheres of influence. Based on theoretical aspects in the field of international relations, the chapter researches some patterns in these case studies. These are the behaviours of third actors at the state and international level of analysis. Both the international influences for a state and the domestic influences are studied in the foreign policy-making of the states. The attention on internal influences makes it possible to study the process of decision-making in both states and international organisations, such as: rational decision-making, organisational decision-making and bureaucratic politics decision-making. This focus on decision-making is required to explain the gap between the warnings and the actions.Keywords: bureaucratic politics decision-making; Cold War; Darfur; foreign policy-making; organisational decision-making; rational decision-making; Rwanda; Srebrenica

8. No Further Decisions: October 2004–January 2005

The months following Resolution 1564 were characterised by the execution of the limited decisions that the international actors had taken. Since the Commission of Inquiry started its investigation in October, new decision-making was hampered for four months. The security situation in Darfur worsened. In contrast, humanitarian agencies were much better prepared to deploy their staff and material when the ceasefire in April was agreed and access for humanitarian agencies was granted. The Sudanese government tried to stop, prohibit or obstruct humanitarian agencies and their staff and material from reaching Darfur. A new round of talks started by the end of October in Abuja. This chapter shows that the Security Council and other actors like the EU were unable and unwilling to adopt more stringent measures in the fall of 2004, such as sanctions or a no-fly zone. It also shows the inconsistencies in the policy of the US.Keywords: Abuja; Darfur; humanitarian agencies; Resolution 1564; Security Council; Sudanese government

Failure to Prevent Gross Human Rights Violations in Darfur

The book looks at the role of states and international organisations in their attempts to prevent the genocide in Darfur (2003-2005); from early warning to limited action in the field of humanitarian assistance, mediation, sanctions and peace-keeping. The book uses several theories to explain how decisionmaking led to the (absence) of international responses.

9. New Decisions of the Security Council: January 2005–March 2005

The Abuja peace talks had collapsed in December 2004 due to new attacks and offensive operations by the Sudanese military. The situation in Darfur escalated and even Advanced Mission in Sudan (AMIS) became involved, suffering casualties from aerial bombings. The United States introduced a lengthy draft resolution in February, which included a proposal for a UN peacekeeping mission in the south and preparations for sanctions on the perpetrators in Darfur. This chapter discusses the following topics: peacekeeping in Sudan and Darfur, sanctions on individual perpetrators in the Darfur conflict, and international criminal prosecution. The Resolution 1591 adopted on 29 March 2005 and sponsored by the United States concerned individual-targeted sanctions and travel bans on members of the Sudanese government. The Resolution 1593 on 31 March 2005, sponsored by the UK, referred the situation of Darfur since 1 July 2002 to the International Criminal Court.Keywords: Abuja peace talks; Darfur; international criminal prosecution; Resolution 1591; Resolution 1593; Security Council; Sudanese military; United States

7. Increased International Activity and Decision-making: June 2004–September 2004

Now that the Darfur ceasefire was signed, Darfur entered the agenda of the Security Council and humanitarian aid was quickly expanding. The following months were dedicated to maximising the pressure on the Sudanese government to reign in the Janjaweed and start political talks with the rebel groups. This chapter looks into the international attempts to achieve these goals. The first resolution in which Darfur was mentioned on 11 June 2004, after the Presidential Statement. Annan made several decisions to give the UN Secretariat a bigger political role in Sudan, and Darfur in particular. From the moment Darfur was discussed in the Security Council the sanctions under discussion were mainly targeted sanctions at individuals and economic sanctions, in particular an oil-boycott. UN Resolution 1556 was adopted on 30 July, and dealt with Darfur. There was a peak in international activity and decision-making in the period between June and September 2004.Keywords: Annan; Darfur; economic sanctions; Security Council; Sudan; UN resolution