Wessel N. Vermeulen

Dutch Disease and the Mitigation Effect of Migration: Evidence from Canadian Provinces

This paper looks at whether immigration can mitigate the Dutch disease effects associated with booms in natural resource sectors. We first derive predicted changes in the size of the non-tradable sector from a small general-equilibrium model `a la Obstfeld-Rogoff, supplemented by a resource income and a varying labour supply. Using data for Canadian provinces, we test for the existence of a mitigating effect of immigration in terms of an increase in the size of the non-tradable sector triggered by the positive resource shock in booming regions. We find evidence of such an effect for the aggregate inflow of migrants. Disentangling those flows by type of migrants, we find that the mitigation effect is due mostly to interprovincial migration and temporary international migration. There is no evidence of such an effect for permanent international immigration. Nevertheless, interprovincial migration also results in a spreading effect of Dutch disease from booming to non-booming provinces.

1. Introducing the Research: Questions and Methodology

This introductory chapter presents an overview of this book, which is a part of a larger research project on the failure to prevent genocide, ethnic cleansing and gross human rights violations in Rwanda (1994), Srebrenica (1995) and Darfur (2003). The book compares the qualitative evidence collected for these three conflicts and makes some broader generalisations. It sets out the theoretical framework which is based on theories of International Relations and foreign policy making. The book also applies and illustrates concisely the theoretical framework for the genocides in Rwanda and Srebrenica with a particular focus on explaining the reasons for the failure to prevent the genocide. The book further introduces Darfur, the land and its people, and gives a brief historical context to the conflict. It discusses thoroughly how and why international decision makers responded to the situation in Darfur. The book ends with the adoption of Security Councils Resolution 1593.Keywords: Darfur; foreign policy making; human rights violations; Rwanda; Security Councils Resolution 1593; Srebrenica

4. A Background of Darfur

This chapter sketches the historical, socio-economic and political context of Darfur discussed in the book. Darfur is located in the west of Sudan bordering Chad, Central African Republic and South Sudan. The region of Darfur obtained its name from one of the main people living in the area, the Fur. The diversity of the people across the region of Darfur has been attributed to its place on old trade routes between north-south and east-west Africa, as well as to the nomadic people that travel around. Darfur came under foreign rule for a limited period of time at the final stage of the Ottoman-Egyptian expansion into Sudan. Under the Al-Bashir regime, and with some Libyan involvement, tribal conflict in Darfur became more ideologically racist in favour of Arab dominance. The argument that the root causes, which include poverty, climate, political institutions and ethnicities, are the key to a political solution in Darfur is still debated.Keywords: Africa; Al-Bashir regime; Central African Republic; Darfur; Fur; Ottoman-Egyptian; political institutions; tribal conflict

10. Epilogue: The International Response to Darfur after 2005

This chapter sketches out the main measures taken by third parties to the conflict as well as the security situation in Darfur since 2005. The international actions in the rest of 2005 and the beginning of 2006 were focused on securing a peace agreement, which was considered a prerequisite for the transition from an AU to a UN peacekeeping force. One of the major reasons behind the policy of making Advanced Mission in Sudan (AMIS) a UN mission was the donor fatigue of Western countries, who were the major financial sponsors of the AU force, coupled with concerns about AMIS limited effectiveness. In 2007, the UN and EU authorised two complementary military missions to be deployed in Sudans neighbouring countries Chad and the Central African Republic. Hardly any progress was made in 2008 with the negotiations. The security situation in Darfur has worsened again since the end of 2010.Keywords: AU force; Central African Republic; Darfur; Darfur peace agreement; Sudan

2. Theories in International Relations

This chapter presents the theories used to explain the behaviour of the bystanders at the state and international levels. This includes the theories of pluralism/liberalism which focus on domestic influences on the foreign policy-making. In addition, the decision-making models developed by Allison in relation to the 1961 Cuba crisis will be relied upon as well as psychological and cognitive mechanisms. The dominant theory of International Relations with respect to peace and security is (neo)realism. The chapter studies the role and behaviour of groups and bureaucracies as well as the impact of domestic sources on foreign policy-making. It includes cognitive practices such as cognitive dissonance and wishful thinking, as well as heuristic devices such as analogies and stereotypes. The chapter presents three decision-making models: Rational Policy Model, Organisational Process Model and Bureaucratic Politics Model, as developed by Allison with respect to the Cuban missile crisis.Keywords: bureaucratic politics model; foreign policy-making; liberalist InternationalRelations theories; organisational process model; rational policy model; theories of pluralism/liberalism

3. Case Studies: Rwanda (1994) and Srebrenica (1995)

This chapter examines the genocides in Rwanda and Srebrenica. All three situations, which include Rwanda, Srebrenica and Darfur, took place after the end of the Cold War, which made foreign intervention somehow easier because the world was no longer divided between Eastern and Western spheres of influence. Based on theoretical aspects in the field of international relations, the chapter researches some patterns in these case studies. These are the behaviours of third actors at the state and international level of analysis. Both the international influences for a state and the domestic influences are studied in the foreign policy-making of the states. The attention on internal influences makes it possible to study the process of decision-making in both states and international organisations, such as: rational decision-making, organisational decision-making and bureaucratic politics decision-making. This focus on decision-making is required to explain the gap between the warnings and the actions.Keywords: bureaucratic politics decision-making; Cold War; Darfur; foreign policy-making; organisational decision-making; rational decision-making; Rwanda; Srebrenica

8. No Further Decisions: October 2004–January 2005

The months following Resolution 1564 were characterised by the execution of the limited decisions that the international actors had taken. Since the Commission of Inquiry started its investigation in October, new decision-making was hampered for four months. The security situation in Darfur worsened. In contrast, humanitarian agencies were much better prepared to deploy their staff and material when the ceasefire in April was agreed and access for humanitarian agencies was granted. The Sudanese government tried to stop, prohibit or obstruct humanitarian agencies and their staff and material from reaching Darfur. A new round of talks started by the end of October in Abuja. This chapter shows that the Security Council and other actors like the EU were unable and unwilling to adopt more stringent measures in the fall of 2004, such as sanctions or a no-fly zone. It also shows the inconsistencies in the policy of the US.Keywords: Abuja; Darfur; humanitarian agencies; Resolution 1564; Security Council; Sudanese government

Failure to Prevent Gross Human Rights Violations in Darfur

The book looks at the role of states and international organisations in their attempts to prevent the genocide in Darfur (2003-2005); from early warning to limited action in the field of humanitarian assistance, mediation, sanctions and peace-keeping. The book uses several theories to explain how decisionmaking led to the (absence) of international responses.

9. New Decisions of the Security Council: January 2005–March 2005

The Abuja peace talks had collapsed in December 2004 due to new attacks and offensive operations by the Sudanese military. The situation in Darfur escalated and even Advanced Mission in Sudan (AMIS) became involved, suffering casualties from aerial bombings. The United States introduced a lengthy draft resolution in February, which included a proposal for a UN peacekeeping mission in the south and preparations for sanctions on the perpetrators in Darfur. This chapter discusses the following topics: peacekeeping in Sudan and Darfur, sanctions on individual perpetrators in the Darfur conflict, and international criminal prosecution. The Resolution 1591 adopted on 29 March 2005 and sponsored by the United States concerned individual-targeted sanctions and travel bans on members of the Sudanese government. The Resolution 1593 on 31 March 2005, sponsored by the UK, referred the situation of Darfur since 1 July 2002 to the International Criminal Court.Keywords: Abuja peace talks; Darfur; international criminal prosecution; Resolution 1591; Resolution 1593; Security Council; Sudanese military; United States

5. Warnings: February 2003–February 2004

It is generally accepted that the emergence of the Darfur Liberation Front (DLF) in claiming responsibility for an attack on a military garrison in Golo in the Jebel Marrah region marked the de Facto beginning of the rebellion. The first warnings were already voiced as early as February 2003. The first (public) warnings were primarily issued by NGOs and humanitarian agencies. The account before suggests that many international actors knew about the developments in Darfur at a relatively early stage. This chapter discusses the following questions: what exactly did they know? Where they able to fully capture the scale of the violence on the ground? The response of the international community in the first year after the outbreak of the rebellion is discussed in the chapter. The first factor that prevented an early response from the international community was the North-South negotiations.Keywords: Darfur Liberation Front (DLF); humanitarian agencies; Kapilas warnings; NGOs; North-South negotiations