Frédéric B. Piel

Global epidemiology of sickle haemoglobin in neonates: a contemporary geostatistical model-based map and population estimates

Summary Background Reliable estimates of populations affected by diseases are necessary to guide efficient allocation of public health resources. Sickle haemoglobin (HbS) is the most common and clinically significant haemoglobin structural variant, but no contemporary estimates exist of the global populations affected. Moreover, the precision of available national estimates of heterozygous (AS) and homozygous (SS) neonates is unknown. We aimed to provide evidence-based estimates at various scales, with uncertainty measures. Methods Using a database of sickle haemoglobin surveys, we created a contemporary global map of HbS allele frequency distribution within a Bayesian geostatistical model. The pairing of this map with demographic data enabled calculation of global, regional, and national estimates of the annual number of AS and SS neonates. Subnational estimates were also calculated in data-rich areas. Findings Our map shows subnational spatial heterogeneities and high allele frequencies across most of sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, and India, as well as gene flow following migrations to western Europe and the eastern coast of the Americas. Accounting for local heterogeneities and demographic factors, we estimated that the global number of neonates affected by HbS in 2010 included 5 476 000 (IQR 5 291 000–5 679 000) AS neonates and 312 000 (294 000–330 000) SS neonates. These global estimates are higher than previous conservative estimates. Important differences predicted at the national level are discussed. Interpretation HbS will have an increasing effect on public health systems. Our estimates can help countries and the international community gauge the need for appropriate diagnoses and genetic counselling to reduce the number of neonates affected. Similar mapping and modelling methods could be used for other inherited disorders. Funding The Wellcome Trust.

G6PD Deficiency Prevalence and Estimates of Affected Populations in Malaria Endemic Countries: A Geostatistical Model-Based Map

Rosalind Howes and colleagues present a map of glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase deficiency prevalence and severity. Individuals with the deficiency are at risk of mild to severe hemolysis when taking the antimalarial primaquine.

Sickle Cell Disease in Africa: A Neglected Cause of Early Childhood Mortality

Sickle cell disease (SCD) is common throughout much of sub-Saharan Africa, affecting up to 3% of births in some parts of the continent. Nevertheless, it remains a low priority for many health ministries. The most common form of SCD is caused by homozygosity for the β-globin S gene mutation (SS disease). It is widely believed that this condition is associated with very high child mortality, but reliable contemporary data are lacking. We have reviewed available African data on mortality associated with SS disease from published and unpublished sources, with an emphasis on two types of studies: cross-sectional population surveys and cohort studies. We have concluded that, although current data are inadequate to support definitive statements, they are consistent with an early-life mortality of 50%–90% among children born in Africa with SS disease. Inclusion of SCD interventions in child survival policies and programs in Africa could benefit from more precise estimates of numbers of deaths among children with SCD. A simple, representative, and affordable approach to estimate SCD child mortality is to test blood specimens already collected through large population surveys targeting conditions such as HIV, malaria, and malnutrition, and covering children of varying ages. Thus, although there is enough evidence to justify investments in screening, prophylaxis, and treatment for African children with SCD, better data are needed to estimate the numbers of child deaths preventable by such interventions and their cost effectiveness.

Changes in health in England, with analysis by English regions and areas of deprivation, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Summary Background In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013), knowledge about health and its determinants has been integrated into a comparable framework to inform health policy. Outputs of this analysis are relevant to current policy questions in England and elsewhere, particularly on health inequalities. We use GBD 2013 data on mortality and causes of death, and disease and injury incidence and prevalence to analyse the burden of disease and injury in England as a whole, in English regions, and within each English region by deprivation quintile. We also assess disease and injury burden in England attributable to potentially preventable risk factors. England and the English regions are compared with the remaining constituent countries of the UK and with comparable countries in the European Union (EU) and beyond. Methods We extracted data from the GBD 2013 to compare mortality, causes of death, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with a disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in England, the UK, and 18 other countries (the first 15 EU members [apart from the UK] and Australia, Canada, Norway, and the USA [EU15+]). We extended elements of the analysis to English regions, and subregional areas defined by deprivation quintile (deprivation areas). We used data split by the nine English regions (corresponding to the European boundaries of the Nomenclature for Territorial Statistics level 1 [NUTS 1] regions), and by quintile groups within each English region according to deprivation, thereby making 45 regional deprivation areas. Deprivation quintiles were defined by area of residence ranked at national level by Index of Multiple Deprivation score, 2010. Burden due to various risk factors is described for England using new GBD methodology to estimate independent and overlapping attributable risk for five tiers of behavioural, metabolic, and environmental risk factors. We present results for 306 causes and 2337 sequelae, and 79 risks or risk clusters. Findings Between 1990 and 2013, life expectancy from birth in England increased by 5·4 years (95% uncertainty interval 5·0–5·8) from 75·9 years (75·9–76·0) to 81·3 years (80·9–81·7); gains were greater for men than for women. Rates of age-standardised YLLs reduced by 41·1% (38·3–43·6), whereas DALYs were reduced by 23·8% (20·9–27·1), and YLDs by 1·4% (0·1–2·8). For these measures, England ranked better than the UK and the EU15+ means. Between 1990 and 2013, the range in life expectancy among 45 regional deprivation areas remained 8·2 years for men and decreased from 7·2 years in 1990 to 6·9 years in 2013 for women. In 2013, the leading cause of YLLs was ischaemic heart disease, and the leading cause of DALYs was low back and neck pain. Known risk factors accounted for 39·6% (37·7–41·7) of DALYs; leading behavioural risk factors were suboptimal diet (10·8% [9·1–12·7]) and tobacco (10·7% [9·4–12·0]). Interpretation Health in England is improving although substantial opportunities exist for further reductions in the burden of preventable disease. The gap in mortality rates between men and women has reduced, but marked health inequalities between the least deprived and most deprived areas remain. Declines in mortality have not been matched by similar declines in morbidity, resulting in people living longer with diseases. Health policies must therefore address the causes of ill health as well as those of premature mortality. Systematic action locally and nationally is needed to reduce risk exposures, support healthy behaviours, alleviate the severity of chronic disabling disorders, and mitigate the effects of socioeconomic deprivation. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Public Health England.

The global distribution of the Duffy blood group

Blood group variants are characteristic of population groups, and can show conspicuous geographic patterns. Interest in the global prevalence of the Duffy blood group variants is multidisciplinary, but of particular importance to malariologists due to the resistance generally conferred by the Duffy-negative phenotype against Plasmodium vivax infection. Here we collate an extensive geo-database of surveys, forming the evidence-base for a multi-locus Bayesian geostatistical model to generate global frequency maps of the common Duffy alleles to refine the global cartography of the common Duffy variants. We show that the most prevalent allele globally was FY*A, while across sub-Saharan Africa the predominant allele was the silent FY*BES variant, commonly reaching fixation across stretches of the continent. The maps presented not only represent the first spatially and genetically comprehensive description of variation at this locus, but also constitute an advance towards understanding the transmission patterns of the neglected P. vivax malaria parasite.

Changes in health in England with analysis by English region and areas of deprivation: findings of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Summary Background In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013), knowledge about health and its determinants has been integrated into a comparable framework to inform health policy. Outputs of this analysis are relevant to current policy questions in England and elsewhere, particularly on health inequalities. We use GBD 2013 data on mortality and causes of death, and disease and injury incidence and prevalence to analyse the burden of disease and injury in England as a whole, in English regions, and within each English region by deprivation quintile. We also assess disease and injury burden in England attributable to potentially preventable risk factors. England and the English regions are compared with the remaining constituent countries of the UK and with comparable countries in the European Union (EU) and beyond. Methods We extracted data from the GBD 2013 to compare mortality, causes of death, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with a disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in England, the UK, and 18 other countries (the first 15 EU members [apart from the UK] and Australia, Canada, Norway, and the USA [EU15+]). We extended elements of the analysis to English regions, and subregional areas defined by deprivation quintile (deprivation areas). We used data split by the nine English regions (corresponding to the European boundaries of the Nomenclature for Territorial Statistics level 1 [NUTS 1] regions), and by quintile groups within each English region according to deprivation, thereby making 45 regional deprivation areas. Deprivation quintiles were defined by area of residence ranked at national level by Index of Multiple Deprivation score, 2010. Burden due to various risk factors is described for England using new GBD methodology to estimate independent and overlapping attributable risk for five tiers of behavioural, metabolic, and environmental risk factors. We present results for 306 causes and 2337 sequelae, and 79 risks or risk clusters. Findings Between 1990 and 2013, life expectancy from birth in England increased by 5·4 years (95% uncertainty interval 5·0–5·8) from 75·9 years (75·9–76·0) to 81·3 years (80·9–81·7); gains were greater for men than for women. Rates of age-standardised YLLs reduced by 41·1% (38·3–43·6), whereas DALYs were reduced by 23·8% (20·9–27·1), and YLDs by 1·4% (0·1–2·8). For these measures, England ranked better than the UK and the EU15+ means. Between 1990 and 2013, the range in life expectancy among 45 regional deprivation areas remained 8·2 years for men and decreased from 7·2 years in 1990 to 6·9 years in 2013 for women. In 2013, the leading cause of YLLs was ischaemic heart disease, and the leading cause of DALYs was low back and neck pain. Known risk factors accounted for 39·6% (37·7–41·7) of DALYs; leading behavioural risk factors were suboptimal diet (10·8% [9·1–12·7]) and tobacco (10·7% [9·4–12·0]). Interpretation Health in England is improving although substantial opportunities exist for further reductions in the burden of preventable disease. The gap in mortality rates between men and women has reduced, but marked health inequalities between the least deprived and most deprived areas remain. Declines in mortality have not been matched by similar declines in morbidity, resulting in people living longer with diseases. Health policies must therefore address the causes of ill health as well as those of premature mortality. Systematic action locally and nationally is needed to reduce risk exposures, support healthy behaviours, alleviate the severity of chronic disabling disorders, and mitigate the effects of socioeconomic deprivation. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Public Health England.

The α-Thalassemias

More than 100 varieties of α-thalassemia have been identified. Their geographic distribution and the challenges associated with screening, diagnosis, and management suggest that α-thalassemias should have a higher priority on global public health agendas.

Spatial distribution of G6PD deficiency variants across malaria-endemic regions

BackgroundPrimaquine is essential for malaria control and elimination since it is the only available drug preventing multiple clinical attacks by relapses of Plasmodium vivax. It is also the only therapy against the sexual stages of Plasmodium falciparum infectious to mosquitoes, and is thus useful in preventing malaria transmission. However, the difficulties of diagnosing glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase deficiency (G6PDd) greatly hinder primaquine’s widespread use, as this common genetic disorder makes patients susceptible to potentially severe and fatal primaquine-induced haemolysis. The risk of such an outcome varies widely among G6PD gene variants.MethodsA literature review was conducted to identify surveys of G6PD variant frequencies among representative population groups. Informative surveys were assembled into two map series: (1) those showing the relative proportions of the different variants among G6PDd individuals; and (2) those showing allele frequencies of G6PD variants based on population surveys without prior G6PDd screening.ResultsVariants showed conspicuous geographic patterns. A limited repertoire of variants was tested for across sub-Saharan Africa, which nevertheless indicated low genetic heterogeneity predominated by the G6PD A-202A mutation, though other mutations were common in western Africa. The severe G6PD Mediterranean variant was widespread across western Asia. Further east, a sharp shift in variants was identified, with high variant heterogeneity in the populations of China and the Asia-Pacific where no single variant dominated.ConclusionsG6PD variants exhibited distinctive region-specific distributions with important primaquine policy implications. Relative homogeneity in the Americas, Africa, and western Asia contrasted sharply with the heterogeneity of variants in China, Southeast Asia and Oceania. These findings will inform rational risk assessments for primaquine in developing public health strategies for malaria control and elimination, and support the future development of regionally targeted policies. The major knowledge gaps highlighted here strongly advocate for further investigation of G6PD variant diversity and their primaquine-sensitivity phenotypes.

Bayesian geostatistics in health cartography: the perspective of malaria

Maps of parasite prevalences and other aspects of infectious diseases that vary in space are widely used in parasitology. However, spatial parasitological datasets rarely, if ever, have sufficient coverage to allow exact determination of such maps. Bayesian geostatistics (BG) is a method for finding a large sample of maps that can explain a dataset, in which maps that do a better job of explaining the data are more likely to be represented. This sample represents the knowledge that the analyst has gained from the data about the unknown true map. BG provides a conceptually simple way to convert these samples to predictions of features of the unknown map, for example regional averages. These predictions account for each map in the sample, yielding an appropriate level of predictive precision.

Sickle Cell Disease

Sickle cell disease (SCD) is a group of inherited disorders caused by mutations in HBB, which encodes haemoglobin subunit β. The incidence is estimated to be between 300,000 and 400,000 neonates globally each year, the majority in sub-Saharan Africa. Haemoglobin molecules that include mutant sickle β-globin subunits can polymerize; erythrocytes that contain mostly haemoglobin polymers assume a sickled form and are prone to haemolysis. Other pathophysiological mechanisms that contribute to the SCD phenotype are vaso-occlusion and activation of the immune system. SCD is characterized by a remarkable phenotypic complexity. Common acute complications are acute pain events, acute chest syndrome and stroke; chronic complications (including chronic kidney disease) can damage all organs. Hydroxycarbamide, blood transfusions and haematopoietic stem cell transplantation can reduce the severity of the disease. Early diagnosis is crucial to improve survival, and universal newborn screening programmes have been implemented in some countries but are challenging in low-income, high-burden settings.