Rosalind E. Howes

The international limits and population at risk of Plasmodium vivax transmission in 2009.

Background A research priority for Plasmodium vivax malaria is to improve our understanding of the spatial distribution of risk and its relationship with the burden of P. vivax disease in human populations. The aim of the research outlined in this article is to provide a contemporary evidence-based map of the global spatial extent of P. vivax malaria, together with estimates of the human population at risk (PAR) of any level of transmission in 2009. Methodology The most recent P. vivax case-reporting data that could be obtained for all malaria endemic countries were used to classify risk into three classes: malaria free, unstable (<0.1 case per 1,000 people per annum (p.a.)) and stable (≥0.1 case per 1,000 p.a.) P. vivax malaria transmission. Risk areas were further constrained using temperature and aridity data based upon their relationship with parasite and vector bionomics. Medical intelligence was used to refine the spatial extent of risk in specific areas where transmission was reported to be absent (e.g., large urban areas and malaria-free islands). The PAR under each level of transmission was then derived by combining the categorical risk map with a high resolution population surface adjusted to 2009. The exclusion of large Duffy negative populations in Africa from the PAR totals was achieved using independent modelling of the gene frequency of this genetic trait. It was estimated that 2.85 billion people were exposed to some risk of P. vivax transmission in 2009, with 57.1% of them living in areas of unstable transmission. The vast majority (2.59 billion, 91.0%) were located in Central and South East (CSE) Asia, whilst the remainder were located in America (0.16 billion, 5.5%) and in the Africa+ region (0.10 billion, 3.5%). Despite evidence of ubiquitous risk of P. vivax infection in Africa, the very high prevalence of Duffy negativity throughout Central and West Africa reduced the PAR estimates substantially. Conclusions After more than a century of development and control, P. vivax remains more widely distributed than P. falciparum and is a potential cause of morbidity and mortality amongst the 2.85 billion people living at risk of infection, the majority of whom are in the tropical belt of CSE Asia. The probability of infection is reduced massively across Africa by the frequency of the Duffy negative trait, but transmission does occur on the continent and is a concern for Duffy positive locals and travellers. The final map provides the spatial limits on which the endemicity of P. vivax transmission can be mapped to support future cartographic-based burden estimations.

A Long Neglected World Malaria Map: Plasmodium vivax Endemicity in 2010

Background Current understanding of the spatial epidemiology and geographical distribution of Plasmodium vivax is far less developed than that for P. falciparum, representing a barrier to rational strategies for control and elimination. Here we present the first systematic effort to map the global endemicity of this hitherto neglected parasite. Methodology and Findings We first updated to the year 2010 our earlier estimate of the geographical limits of P. vivax transmission. Within areas of stable transmission, an assembly of 9,970 geopositioned P. vivax parasite rate (PvPR) surveys collected from 1985 to 2010 were used with a spatiotemporal Bayesian model-based geostatistical approach to estimate endemicity age-standardised to the 1–99 year age range (PvPR1–99) within every 5×5 km resolution grid square. The model incorporated data on Duffy negative phenotype frequency to suppress endemicity predictions, particularly in Africa. Endemicity was predicted within a relatively narrow range throughout the endemic world, with the point estimate rarely exceeding 7% PvPR1–99. The Americas contributed 22% of the global area at risk of P. vivax transmission, but high endemic areas were generally sparsely populated and the region contributed only 6% of the 2.5 billion people at risk (PAR) globally. In Africa, Duffy negativity meant stable transmission was constrained to Madagascar and parts of the Horn, contributing 3.5% of global PAR. Central Asia was home to 82% of global PAR with important high endemic areas coinciding with dense populations particularly in India and Myanmar. South East Asia contained areas of the highest endemicity in Indonesia and Papua New Guinea and contributed 9% of global PAR. Conclusions and Significance This detailed depiction of spatially varying endemicity is intended to contribute to a much-needed paradigm shift towards geographically stratified and evidence-based planning for P. vivax control and elimination.

Global epidemiology of sickle haemoglobin in neonates: a contemporary geostatistical model-based map and population estimates

Summary Background Reliable estimates of populations affected by diseases are necessary to guide efficient allocation of public health resources. Sickle haemoglobin (HbS) is the most common and clinically significant haemoglobin structural variant, but no contemporary estimates exist of the global populations affected. Moreover, the precision of available national estimates of heterozygous (AS) and homozygous (SS) neonates is unknown. We aimed to provide evidence-based estimates at various scales, with uncertainty measures. Methods Using a database of sickle haemoglobin surveys, we created a contemporary global map of HbS allele frequency distribution within a Bayesian geostatistical model. The pairing of this map with demographic data enabled calculation of global, regional, and national estimates of the annual number of AS and SS neonates. Subnational estimates were also calculated in data-rich areas. Findings Our map shows subnational spatial heterogeneities and high allele frequencies across most of sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, and India, as well as gene flow following migrations to western Europe and the eastern coast of the Americas. Accounting for local heterogeneities and demographic factors, we estimated that the global number of neonates affected by HbS in 2010 included 5 476 000 (IQR 5 291 000–5 679 000) AS neonates and 312 000 (294 000–330 000) SS neonates. These global estimates are higher than previous conservative estimates. Important differences predicted at the national level are discussed. Interpretation HbS will have an increasing effect on public health systems. Our estimates can help countries and the international community gauge the need for appropriate diagnoses and genetic counselling to reduce the number of neonates affected. Similar mapping and modelling methods could be used for other inherited disorders. Funding The Wellcome Trust.

Global spread of dengue virus types: Mapping the 70 year history

Highlights • The geography of type-specific global DENV circulation has not been well described.• We map the global distribution and co-circulation of each DENV type from 1943 to 2013.• Detection of all types has expanded worldwide together with growing hyperendemicity.• There remains a dearth of type-specific information in many parts of the world.

G6PD Deficiency Prevalence and Estimates of Affected Populations in Malaria Endemic Countries: A Geostatistical Model-Based Map

Rosalind Howes and colleagues present a map of glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase deficiency prevalence and severity. Individuals with the deficiency are at risk of mild to severe hemolysis when taking the antimalarial primaquine.

The global distribution of the Duffy blood group

Blood group variants are characteristic of population groups, and can show conspicuous geographic patterns. Interest in the global prevalence of the Duffy blood group variants is multidisciplinary, but of particular importance to malariologists due to the resistance generally conferred by the Duffy-negative phenotype against Plasmodium vivax infection. Here we collate an extensive geo-database of surveys, forming the evidence-base for a multi-locus Bayesian geostatistical model to generate global frequency maps of the common Duffy alleles to refine the global cartography of the common Duffy variants. We show that the most prevalent allele globally was FY*A, while across sub-Saharan Africa the predominant allele was the silent FY*BES variant, commonly reaching fixation across stretches of the continent. The maps presented not only represent the first spatially and genetically comprehensive description of variation at this locus, but also constitute an advance towards understanding the transmission patterns of the neglected P. vivax malaria parasite.

Developing global maps of the dominant anopheles vectors of human malaria.

Simon Hay and colleagues describe how the Malaria Atlas Project has collated anopheline occurrence data to map the geographic distributions of the dominant mosquito vectors of human malaria.

G6PD Deficiency: Global Distribution, Genetic Variants and Primaquine Therapy

Glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase (G6PD) is a potentially pathogenic inherited enzyme abnormality and, similar to other human red blood cell polymorphisms, is particularly prevalent in historically malaria endemic countries. The spatial extent of Plasmodium vivax malaria overlaps widely with that of G6PD deficiency; unfortunately the only drug licensed for the radical cure and relapse prevention of P. vivax, primaquine, can trigger severe haemolytic anaemia in G6PD deficient individuals. This chapter reviews the past and current data on this unique pharmacogenetic association, which is becoming increasingly important as several nations now consider strategies to eliminate malaria transmission rather than control its clinical burden. G6PD deficiency is a highly variable disorder, in terms of spatial heterogeneity in prevalence and molecular variants, as well as its interactions with P. vivax and primaquine. Consideration of factors including aspects of basic physiology, diagnosis, and clinical triggers of primaquine-induced haemolysis is required to assess the risks and benefits of applying primaquine in various geographic and demographic settings. Given that haemolytically toxic antirelapse drugs will likely be the only therapeutic options for the coming decade, it is clear that we need to understand in depth G6PD deficiency and primaquine-induced haemolysis to determine safe and effective therapeutic strategies to overcome this hurdle and achieve malaria elimination.

Review of key knowledge gaps in glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase deficiency detection with regard to the safe clinical deployment of 8-aminoquinoline treatment regimens: a workshop report

The diagnosis and management of glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase (G6PD) deficiency is a crucial aspect in the current phases of malaria control and elimination, which will require the wider use of 8-aminoquinolines for both reducing Plasmodium falciparum transmission and achieving the radical cure of Plasmodium vivax. 8-aminoquinolines, such as primaquine, can induce severe haemolysis in G6PD-deficient individuals, potentially creating significant morbidity and undermining confidence in 8-aminoquinoline prescription. On the other hand, erring on the side of safety and excluding large numbers of people with unconfirmed G6PD deficiency from treatment with 8-aminoquinolines will diminish the impact of these drugs. Estimating the remaining G6PD enzyme activity is the most direct, accessible, and reliable assessment of the phenotype and remains the gold standard for the diagnosis of patients who could be harmed by the administration of primaquine. Genotyping seems an unambiguous technique, but its use is limited by cost and the large range of recognized G6PD genotypes. A number of enzyme activity assays diagnose G6PD deficiency, but they require a cold chain, specialized equipment, and laboratory skills. These assays are impractical for care delivery where most patients with malaria live. Improvements to the diagnosis of G6PD deficiency are required for the broader and safer use of 8-aminoquinolines to kill hypnozoites, while lower doses of primaquine may be safely used to kill gametocytes without testing. The discussions and conclusions of a workshop conducted in Incheon, Korea in May 2012 to review key knowledge gaps in G6PD deficiency are reported here.

The Global Public Health Significance of Plasmodium vivax

Plasmodium vivax occurs globally and thrives in both temperate and tropical climates. Here, we review the evidence of the biological limits of its contemporary distribution and the global population at risk (PAR) of the disease within endemic countries. We also review the most recent evidence for the endemic level of transmission within its range and discuss the implications for burden of disease assessments. Finally, the evidence-base for defining the contemporary distribution and PAR of P. vivax are discussed alongside a description of the vectors of human malaria within the limits of risk. This information along with recent data documenting the severe morbid and fatal consequences of P. vivax infection indicates that the public health significance of P. vivax is likely to have been seriously underestimated.