Frédéric Louis François Babonneau

Design and Operations of Gas Transmission Networks

Problems dealing with the design and operations of gas transmission networks are challenging. The standard approaches lead to a difficult nonlinear nonconvex optimization problem. To get around this difficulty, we use a minimum energy principle to define stationary flows in the network. This solution minimizes the total energy dissipated in the system. We extend the minimization process to the choice of suitable diameters on the reinforcing arcs and add a constraint that limits the monetary cost of investment and of purchase and delivery of gas. Under a suitable and acceptable approximation of the structure of the investment cost function, the new problem turns out to be convex and tractable even for very large networks.

Worldwide impacts of climate change on energy for heating and cooling

The energy sector is not only a major contributor to greenhouse gases, it is also vulnerable to climate change and will have to adapt to future climate conditions. The objective of this study is to analyze the impacts of changes in future temperatures on the heating and cooling services of buildings and the resulting energy and macro-economic effects at global and regional levels. For this purpose, the techno-economic TIAM-WORLD (TIMES Integrated Assessment Model) and the general equilibrium GEMINI-E3 (General Equilibrium Model of International-National Interactions between Economy, Energy and Environment) models are coupled with a climate model, PLASIM-ENTS (Planet-Simulator- Efficient Numerical Terrestrial Scheme). The key results are as follows. At the global level, the climate feedback induced by adaptation of the energy system to heating and cooling is found to be insignificant, partly because heating and cooling-induced changes compensate and partly because they represent a limited share of total final energy consumption. However, significant changes are observed at regional levels, more particularly in terms of additional power capacity required to satisfy additional cooling services, resulting in increases in electricity prices. In terms of macro-economic impacts, welfare gains and losses are associated more with changes in energy exports and imports than with changes in energy consumption for heating and cooling. The rebound effect appears to be non-negligible. To conclude, the coupling of models of different nature was successful and showed that the energy and economic impacts of climate change on heating and cooling remain small at the global level, but changes in energy needs will be visible at more local scale.

Combining Stochastic Optimization and Monte-Carlo Simulation to Deal with Uncertainties in Climate Policy Assessment

In this paper, we explore the impact of several sources of uncertainties on the assessment of energy and climate policies when one uses in a harmonized way stochastic programming in a large-scale bottom-up (BU) model and Monte Carlo simulation in a large-scale top-down (TD) model. The BU model we use is the TIMES Integrated Assessment Model, which is run in a stochastic programming version to provide a hedging emission policy to cope with the uncertainty characterizing climate sensitivity. The TD model we use is the computable general equilibrium model GEMINI-E3. Through Monte Carlo simulations of randomly generated uncertain parameter values, one provides a stochastic micro- and macro-economic analysis. Through statistical analysis of the simulation results, we analyse the impact of the uncertainties on the policy assessment.

Energy Security: A Robust Optimization Approach to Design a Robust European Energy Supply via TIAM-WORLD

Energy supply routes to a given region are subject to random events, resulting in partial or total closure of a route (corridor). For instance, a pipeline may be subject to technical problems that reduce its capacity. Or, oil supply by tanker may be reduced for political reasons or because of equipment mishaps at the point of origin or again, by a conscious decision by the supplier in order to obtain economic benefits. The purpose of this article is to formulate a simplified version of the above issue that mainly addresses long-term uncertainties. The formulation is done via a version of the TIAM-WORLD Integrated Model, modified to implement the approach of robust optimization. In our case, the approach can be interpreted as a revival of chance-constrained programming under the name of distributionally robust, or ambiguous, chance-constrained programming. We apply the approach to improve the security of supply to the European Energy system. The resulting formulation provides several interesting features regarding the security of EU energy supply and has also the advantage to be numerically tractable.

Robust capacity assignment solutions for telecommunications networks with uncertain demands

We consider the capacity planning of telecommunications networks with linear investment costs and uncertain future traffic demands. Transmission capacities must be large enough to meet, with a high quality of service (QoS), the range of possible demands, after adequate routings of the traffic on the created network. We use the robust optimization methodology to balance the need for a given QoS with the cost of investment. Our model assumes that the traffic for each individual demand fluctuates in an interval around a nominal value. We use a refined version of affine decision rules based on a concept of demand proximity to model the routings as affine functions of the demand realizations. We then give a probabilistic analysis assuming the random variables follow a triangular distribution. Finally, we perform numerical experiments on network instances from Survivable fixed telecommunication Network Design Library (SNDlib) and measure the quality of the solutions by simulation. Copyright (c) 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. NETWORKS, Vol. 62(4), 255-272 2013

Assessing the Future of Renewable and Smart Grid Technologies in Regional Energy Systems

SummaryIn this paper we present the regional techno-economic model ETEM, designed for the analysis of regional energy/environment systems and we show how it can be used to explore the possible penetration of new technologies in a region corresponding roughly to the canton of Geneva. We investigate three scenarios with different constraints on CO2 emissions and electricity imports and show the essential role played by new technologies, linked through a smart grid, in the effort toward a sustainable energy system. We strengthen our conclusion with a stochastic approach dealing with uncertainty in future electricity prices and electric car technology penetration.

Assessment of balanced burden-sharing in the 2050 EU climate/energy roadmap: a metamodeling approach

In this paper we propose a non-cooperative meta-game approach to designing and assessing climate agreements among 28 European countries that will be compatible with the EU 2050 climate target. Our proposed game model is identified through statistical emulation of a large set of numerical simulations performed with the computable general equilibrium model GEMINI-E3. In this game, the players are the 28 European countries, the payoffs are related to welfare losses due to abatements and the strategies correspond to the supply of emission rights on the European carbon market. We show it is possible to design a fair burden-sharing rule that equalizes welfare losses between countries to approximately 1.2 % of their discounted household consumption. The associated European CO2 price in 2050 reaches

ETEM-SG: Optimizing Regional Smart Energy System with Power Distribution Constraints and Options

1100, a figure in line with previous studies. Lastly, the paper discusses various implementation issues of these types of negotiations and evaluates the cost of non-cooperation among EU countries.

Producing Policy-relevant Science by Enhancing Robustness and Model Integration for the Assessment of Global Environmental Change

This paper gives a detailed description of the ETEM-SG model, which provides a simulation of the long -term development of a regional multi-energy system in a smart city environment. The originality of the modeling comes from a representation of the power distribution constraints associated with intermittent and volatile renewable energy sources connected at the transmission network like, e.g., wind farms, or the distribution networks like, e.g., roof top PV panels). The model takes into account the options to optimize the power system provided by grid-friendly flexible loads and distributed energy resources, including variable speed drive powered CHP micro-generators, heat pumps, and electric vehicles. One deals with uncertainties in some parameters by implementing robust optimization techniques. A case study, based on the modeling of the energy system of the “Arc Lémanique” region, shows on simulation results, the importance of introducing a representation of power distribution constraints, and options in a regional energy model.

Defining deep decarbonization pathways for Switzerland: An economic evaluation

We use the flexible model coupling technology known as the bespoke framework generator to link established existing modules representing dynamics in the global economy (GEMINI_E3), the energy system (TIAM-WORLD), the global and regional climate system (MAGICC6, PLASIM-ENTS and ClimGEN), the agricultural system, the hydrological system and ecosystems (LPJmL), together in a single integrated assessment modelling (IAM) framework, building on the pre-existing framework of the Community Integrated Assessment System. Next, we demonstrate the application of the framework to produce policy-relevant scientific information. We use it to show that when using carbon price mechanisms to induce a transition from a high-carbon to a low-carbon economy, prices can be minimised if policy action is taken early, if burden sharing regimes are used, and if agriculture is intensified. Some of the coupled models have been made available for use at a secure and user-friendly web portal.