Frédéric Ouellet

Nightly variation of disorder in a Canadian nightclub

Objective: This paper aims to study nightly disorder within a single bar over an extended period, in order to analyse variations across time (n = 258 nights). Methods: The security staff of a large Canadian nightclub agreed to note detailed information on every intervention in which they were involved. Bouncers wrote detailed narratives of each incident of aggression and incivility that occurred in the bar. Environmental characteristics (e.g. number of admissions and alcohol sales) were collected by one of the co-authors. Results: “Hot nights” were observed. The number of problem events was particularly high on Tuesday nights, which had the highest number of customers admitted and higher alcohol sales. The average alcohol sale per customer was also higher during long weekends, and alcohol sales were positively related to problem events. Finally, path analyses revealed that the presence of more bouncers was a deterrent. Conclusions: The level of disorder in a bar varies greatly over time. Contrary to what is often postulated, bars are not always high- or low-risk. The results strongly support responsible alcohol-serving policies and highlight the benefits of adequate surveillance.

Only a Matter of Time? The Role of Criminal Competence in Avoiding Arrest

While prior research has shown that the probability of detection plays a role in the decision-making of many offenders, much less is known on offenders’ relative success in avoiding arrest. In this study, we draw from detailed criminal career data on 172 offenders involved in lucrative criminal activities to examine the role of criminal competence in the probability of being arrested in a given month. We examine a particular aspect of competence, criminal efficiency, which is defined as the ability to earn a relatively large amount of money for each crime committed. Our research design allows us to disentangle the effect of criminal efficiency as a static trait of offenders from the dynamic variations in efficiency that offenders experience over time. Results show that efficiency is a strong, negative predictor of arrest, both at the static and dynamic levels.

Épisodes d'inactivité et revenus criminels dans une trajectoire de délinquance

The instability of criminal activity over time is already well documented. However, little is known of the circumstances that can explain these short-term variations. It is possible that short-term transitions and changes precede turning points in criminal careers. For example, conditions that account for the temporary interruption of criminal activity might help explain a more definitive desistance from crime. Therefore, it appears appropriate to improve our knowledge of these factors. The study is based on the trajectories of 172 offenders involved in lucrative forms of crime. It focuses on changes in criminal earnings and episodes of temporary desistance within a window period of 36 months. The life history calendars method, combined with hierarchical models, is used for the analysis of the role of static (individual characteristics) and dynamic (life circumstances) factors in order to understand variations in criminal activity on a monthly basis. Results highlight the importance of events that mark offenders’ lifestyles and the parameters that characterize criminal involvement in predicting variations in observed trajectories. They also emphasize the importance of criminal achievement in explaining the decision of offenders to temporarily stop their illegal activities.

The Impact of Known Criminals on the Proportion and Seriousness of Intimate Partner Violence Incidents

This study examines a hypothesis that has not received adequate scrutiny: that an important proportion of intimate partner violence (IPV) incidents, particularly those that are more serious, involve generalist offenders known to the police. Many criminological theories and empirical studies suggest that offenders are often generalists, yet few IPV studies consider this hypothesis. Based on a sample of 52,149 IPV incidents recorded by police, we found that 31% of IPV incidents involved suspects only with criminal records for non-IPV criminality, 9% involved victims only with criminal records for non-IPV criminality, and 14% involved both suspects and victims with criminal records for non-IPV criminality. Thus, 45% of IPV offenders and 23% of IPV victims had criminal records for non-IPV criminality. Multilevel regression analyses reveal that controlling for prior IPV incidents, community context, and other individual and couple variables, IPV offenders with criminal records are 16% more likely to be involved in more serious incidents, and victims of IPV with criminal records are 17% more likely to be involved in more serious incidents. In addition, IPV incidents for which both suspects and victims had criminal records were 46% more likely to be more serious incidents. These results suggest that generalist criminals known by police have an important impact on the proportion of IPV incidents, particularly the more serious ones.

Stop and Go: Explaining the Timing of Intermittency in Criminal Careers

Few offenders maintain a linear or constant path in their criminal activities; instead, zigzag paths characterize most criminal careers. The present study seeks to understand the dynamics of such intermittent cycles and examines the effect of direct experience with the justice system and offender success in criminal ventures on the likelihood that offenders will interrupt and then restart their illegal activities. Using the method of life history calendars, the study is based on detailed criminal career data from 172 offenders involved in lucrative forms of crime. Results show the relevance and complementarity of sanctions and dimensions of criminal achievement in understanding an offending path. The research design highlights the importance of considering the timing of circumstances in understanding zigzag paths.

Space and Time Variations in Crime-Recording Practices within a Large Municipal Police Agency

When comparing crime rates across several locations or analysing general trends, it is usually assumed that police statistics are an imperfect, but relatively constant indicator of the phenomenon. This study delves into the possibility that this may not be the case. Multilevel models are used to analyse the recording rate of six types of offences for the 33 police districts of a large Canadian city between 2005 and 2009. Results demonstrate that geographical and time factors unrelated to the offence committed may influence a police officers decision whether or not to record certain types of offences. In some cases, official statistics do not provide a meaningful indicator of crime for comparative purposes.