Frederieke S. van der Deen

Theoretical impacts of a range of major tobacco retail outlet reduction interventions: modelling results in a country with a smoke-free nation goal

Objective To inform endgame strategies in tobacco control, this study aimed to estimate the impact of interventions that markedly reduced availability of tobacco retail outlets. The setting was New Zealand, a developed nation where the government has a smoke-free nation goal in 2025. Methods Various legally mandated reductions in outlets that were phased in over 10 years were modelled. Geographic analyses using the road network were used to estimate the distance and time travelled from centres of small areas to the reduced number of tobacco outlets, and from there to calculate increased travel costs for each intervention. Age-specific price elasticities of demand were used to estimate future smoking prevalence. Results With a law that required a 95% reduction in outlets, the cost of a pack of 20 cigarettes (including travel costs) increased by 20% in rural areas and 10% elsewhere and yielded a smoking prevalence of 9.6% by 2025 (compared with 9.9% with no intervention). The intervention that permitted tobacco sales at only 50% of liquor stores resulted in the largest cost increase (∼

Health, health inequality, and cost impacts of annual increases in tobacco tax: Multistate life table modeling in New Zealand

60/pack in rural areas) and the lowest prevalence (9.1%) by 2025. Elimination of outlets within 2 km of schools produced a smoking prevalence of 9.3%. Conclusions This modelling merges geographic, economic and epidemiological methodologies in a novel way, but the results should be interpreted cautiously and further research is desirable. Nevertheless, the results still suggest that tobacco outlet reduction interventions could modestly contribute to an endgame goal.

Smoking uptake is associated with increased psychological distress: results of a national longitudinal study

Background Countries are increasingly considering how to reduce or even end tobacco consumption, and raising tobacco taxes is a potential strategy to achieve these goals. We estimated the impacts on health, health inequalities, and health system costs of ongoing tobacco tax increases (10% annually from 2011 to 2031, compared to no tax increases from 2011 [“business as usual,” BAU]), in a country (New Zealand) with large ethnic inequalities in smoking-related and noncommunicable disease (NCD) burden. Methods and Findings We modeled 16 tobacco-related diseases in parallel, using rich national data by sex, age, and ethnicity, to estimate undiscounted quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained and net health system costs over the remaining life of the 2011 population (n = 4.4 million). A total of 260,000 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 155,000–419,000) QALYs were gained among the 2011 cohort exposed to annual tobacco tax increases, compared to BAU, and cost savings were US

Do changes in income, deprivation, labour force status and family status influence smoking behaviour over the short run? Panel study of 15 000 adults

2,550 million (95% UI: US

The association between failed quit attempts and increased levels of psychological distress in smokers in a large New Zealand cohort

1,480 to US

Tobacco retail outlet restrictions: health and cost impacts from multistate life-table modelling in a national population

4,000). QALY gains and cost savings took 50 y to peak, owing to such factors as the price sensitivity of youth and young adult smokers. The QALY gains per capita were 3.7 times greater for Māori (indigenous population) compared to non-Māori because of higher background smoking prevalence and price sensitivity in Māori. Health inequalities measured by differences in 45+ y-old standardized mortality rates between Māori and non-Māori were projected to be 2.31% (95% UI: 1.49% to 3.41%) less in 2041 with ongoing tax rises, compared to BAU. Percentage reductions in inequalities in 2041 were maximal for 45–64-y-old women (3.01%). As with all such modeling, there were limitations pertaining to the model structure and input parameters. Conclusions Ongoing tobacco tax increases deliver sizeable health gains and health sector cost savings and are likely to reduce health inequalities. However, if policy makers are to achieve more rapid reductions in the NCD burden and health inequalities, they will also need to complement tobacco tax increases with additional tobacco control interventions focused on cessation.

Impact of five tobacco endgame strategies on future smoking prevalence, population health and health system costs: two modelling studies to inform the tobacco endgame

Background There is evidence that smoking is associated with poorer mental health. However, the underlying mechanisms for this remain unclear. We used longitudinal data to assess whether smoking uptake, or failed quit attempts, are associated with increased psychological distress. Methods Data were used from Waves 3 (2004/05), 5 (2006/07) and 7 (2008/09) of the longitudinal New Zealand Survey of Family, Income and Employment. Fixed-effects linear regression analyses were performed to model the impact of changes in smoking status and quit status (exposure variables) on changes in psychological distress (Kessler 10 (K10)). Results After adjusting for time-varying demographic and socioeconomic covariates, smoking uptake was associated with an increase in psychological distress (K10: 0.22, 95% CI 0.01 to 0.43). The associations around quitting and distress were in the expected directions, but were not statistically significant. That is, smokers who successfully quit between waves had no meaningful change in psychological distress (K10: −0.05, 95% CI −0.34 to 0.23), whereas those who tried but failed to quit, experienced an increase in psychological distress (K10: 0.18, 95% CI −0.05 to 0.40). Conclusions The findings provide some support for a modest association between smoking uptake and a subsequent increase in psychological distress, but more research is needed before such information is considered for inclusion in public health messages.

Smokefree 2025 – use of mass media in New Zealand lacks alignment with evidence and needs

Background Improving social circumstances (eg, an increase in income, finding a job or moving into a good neighbourhood) may reduce tobacco use, but robust evidence on the effects of such improvements is scarce. Accordingly we investigated the link between changing social circumstances and changing tobacco smoking using repeated measures data. Methods 15 000 adults with at least two observations over three waves (each 2 years apart) of a panel study had data on smoking status, family, labour force, income and deprivation (both neighbourhood and individual). Fixed effects regression modelling was used. Findings The odds of smoking increased 1.42-fold (95% CI 1.16 to 1.74) for a one log-unit increase in personal income among 15–24-year-olds, but there was no association of increased smoking with an increase in income among 25+ year olds. Moving out of a family nucleus, increasing neighbourhood deprivation (eg, 1.83-fold (95% CI 1.18 to 2.83) increased odds of smoking for moving from least to most deprived quintile of neighbourhoods), increasing personal deprivation and moving into employment were all associated with increased odds of smoking. The number of cigarettes smoked a day changed little with changing social circumstances. Interpretation Worsening social circumstances over the short run are generally associated with higher smoking risk. However, there were counter examples: for instance, decreasing personal income among young people was associated with decreased odds of smoking, a finding consistent with income elasticity of demand (the less ones income, the less one can consume). This paper suggests that improving social circumstances is not always pro-health over the short run; a more nuanced approach to the social determinants of health is required.

Ending the Sale of Cigarettes at US Pharmacies

BackgroundAlthough the association between smoking status and poorer mental health has been well documented, the association between quit status and psychological distress is less clear. The aim of the present study is to investigate the association of smoking status and quit status with psychological distress.MethodsData for this study is from a single year of the Survey of Families, Income and Employment (SoFIE) conducted in New Zealand (2004/05) (n = 18,525 respondents). Smoking status and quit status were treated as exposure variables, and psychological distress (Kessler-10) was treated as the outcome variable. Logistic regression analyses were performed to determine the association of smoking with psychological distress in the whole adult population and quit status with psychological distress in the ex- and current-smoking population.ResultsCurrent smokers had higher rates of high and very high psychological distress compared to never smokers (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) = 1.45; 95% CI: 1.24-1.69). Unsuccessful quitters had much higher levels of high to very high levels of psychological distress (16%) than any other group. Moreover, compared to long-term ex-smokers, unsuccessful quitters had a much higher odds of high to very high levels of psychological distress (aOR = 1.73; 95% CI: 1.36-2.21).ConclusionThese findings suggest that the significant association between smoking and psychological distress might be partly explained by increased levels of psychological distress among current smokers who made a quit attempt in the last year. This issue needs further study as it has implications for optimising the design of quitting support.

Do changes in social and economic factors lead to changes in drinking behavior in young adults? Findings from three waves of a population based panel study

Background Since there is some evidence that the density and distribution of tobacco retail outlets may influence smoking behaviours, we aimed to estimate the impacts of 4 tobacco outlet reduction interventions in a country with a smoke-free goal: New Zealand (NZ). Methods A multistate life-table model of 16 tobacco-related diseases, using national data by sex, age and ethnicity, was used to estimate quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained and net costs over the remainder of the 2011 NZ populations lifetime. The outlet reduction interventions assumed that increased travel costs can be operationalised as equivalent to price increases in tobacco. Results All 4 modelled interventions led to reductions of >89% of current tobacco outlets after the 10-year phase-in process. The most effective intervention limited sales to half of liquor stores (and nowhere else) at 129 000 QALYs gained over the lifetime of the population (95% UI: 74 100 to 212 000, undiscounted). The per capita QALY gains were up to 5 times greater for Māori (indigenous population) compared to non-Māori. All interventions were cost-saving to the health system, with the largest saving for the liquor store only intervention: US