Melissa McLeod

Protective Effect of Maritime Quarantine in South Pacific Jurisdictions, 1918–19 Influenza Pandemic

We reviewed mortality data of the 1918-19 influenza pandemic for 11 South Pacific Island jurisdictions. Four of these appear to have successfully delayed or excluded the arrival of pandemic influenza by imposing strict maritime quarantine. They also experienced lower excess death rates than the other jurisdictions that did not apply quarantine measures.

Health, health inequality, and cost impacts of annual increases in tobacco tax: Multistate life table modeling in New Zealand

Background Countries are increasingly considering how to reduce or even end tobacco consumption, and raising tobacco taxes is a potential strategy to achieve these goals. We estimated the impacts on health, health inequalities, and health system costs of ongoing tobacco tax increases (10% annually from 2011 to 2031, compared to no tax increases from 2011 [“business as usual,” BAU]), in a country (New Zealand) with large ethnic inequalities in smoking-related and noncommunicable disease (NCD) burden. Methods and Findings We modeled 16 tobacco-related diseases in parallel, using rich national data by sex, age, and ethnicity, to estimate undiscounted quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained and net health system costs over the remaining life of the 2011 population (n = 4.4 million). A total of 260,000 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 155,000–419,000) QALYs were gained among the 2011 cohort exposed to annual tobacco tax increases, compared to BAU, and cost savings were US

Improving survival disparities in cervical cancer between Māori and non‐Māori women in New Zealand: a national retrospective cohort study

2,550 million (95% UI: US

Why equal treatment is not always equitable: the impact of existing ethnic health inequalities in cost-effectiveness modeling

1,480 to US

The 2005 Wellington influenza outbreak: syndromic surveillance of Wellington Hospital Emergency Department activity may have provided early warning

4,000). QALY gains and cost savings took 50 y to peak, owing to such factors as the price sensitivity of youth and young adult smokers. The QALY gains per capita were 3.7 times greater for Māori (indigenous population) compared to non-Māori because of higher background smoking prevalence and price sensitivity in Māori. Health inequalities measured by differences in 45+ y-old standardized mortality rates between Māori and non-Māori were projected to be 2.31% (95% UI: 1.49% to 3.41%) less in 2041 with ongoing tax rises, compared to BAU. Percentage reductions in inequalities in 2041 were maximal for 45–64-y-old women (3.01%). As with all such modeling, there were limitations pertaining to the model structure and input parameters. Conclusions Ongoing tobacco tax increases deliver sizeable health gains and health sector cost savings and are likely to reduce health inequalities. However, if policy makers are to achieve more rapid reductions in the NCD burden and health inequalities, they will also need to complement tobacco tax increases with additional tobacco control interventions focused on cessation.

Economic evaluation of single-fraction versus multiple-fraction palliative radiotherapy for painful bone metastases in breast, lung and prostate cancer

Objective: Māori women in New Zealand have higher incidence of and mortality from cervical cancer than non‐Māori women, however limited research has examined differences in treatment and survival between these groups. This study aims to determine if ethnic disparities in treatment and survival exist among a cohort of Māori and non‐Māori women with cervical cancer.

A screening program to test and treat for Helicobacter pylori infection: Cost-utility analysis by age, sex and ethnicity

BackgroundA critical first step toward incorporating equity into cost-effectiveness analyses is to appropriately model interventions by population subgroups. In this paper we use a standardized treatment intervention to examine the impact of using ethnic-specific (Māori and non-Māori) data in cost-utility analyses for three cancers.MethodsWe estimate gains in health-adjusted life years (HALYs) for a simple intervention (20% reduction in excess cancer mortality) for lung, female breast, and colon cancers, using Markov modeling. Base models include ethnic-specific cancer incidence with other parameters either turned off or set to non-Māori levels for both groups. Subsequent models add ethnic-specific cancer survival, morbidity, and life expectancy. Costs include intervention and downstream health system costs.ResultsFor the three cancers, including existing inequalities in background parameters (population mortality and comorbidities) for Māori attributes less value to a year of life saved compared to non-Māori and lowers the relative health gains for Māori. In contrast, ethnic inequalities in cancer parameters have less predictable effects. Despite Māori having higher excess mortality from all three cancers, modeled health gains for Māori were less from the lung cancer intervention than for non-Māori but higher for the breast and colon interventions.ConclusionsCost-effectiveness modeling is a useful tool in the prioritization of health services. But there are important (and sometimes counterintuitive) implications of including ethnic-specific background and disease parameters. In order to avoid perpetuating existing ethnic inequalities in health, such analyses should be undertaken with care.

How much might a society spend on life-saving interventions at different ages while remaining cost-effective? A case study in a country with detailed data

Objectives: To assess whether the Wellington Emergency Department (ED) Respiratory Syndromic Surveillance System may have provided early warning of the influenza outbreak in Wellington schools during 2005, and as a result might have provided the opportunity for an earlier or more effective public health response.

BetaMe: impact of a comprehensive digital health programme on HbA1c and weight at 12 months for people with diabetes and pre-diabetes: study protocol for a randomised controlled trial

Single‐ and multiple‐fraction external beam radiotherapy (SFX‐EBRT and MFX‐EBRT) are palliative treatment options for localized metastatic bone pain. MFX is the preferred choice in many developed countries. Evidence shows little difference in how effectively SFX and MFX reduce pain. However, SFX is associated with higher retreatment and (in one meta‐analysis) pathological fracture rates. MFX is, however, more time‐consuming and expensive. We estimated the cost‐effectiveness of SFX versus MFX for metastatic bone pain in breast, prostate and lung cancer in New Zealand.

Health benefits and cost-effectiveness from promoting smartphone apps for weight loss: Multi-state life-table modeling (Preprint)

BackgroundThe World Health Organization recommends all countries consider screening for H. pylori to prevent gastric cancer. We therefore aimed to estimate the cost-effectiveness of a H. pylori serology-based screening program in New Zealand, a country that includes population groups with relatively high gastric cancer rates.MethodsA Markov model was developed using life-tables and morbidity data from a national burden of disease study. The modelled screening program reduced the incidence of non-cardia gastric cancer attributable to H. pylori, if infection was identified by serology screening, and for the population expected to be reached by the screening program. A health system perspective was taken and detailed individual-level costing data was used.ResultsFor adults aged 25–69 years old, nation-wide screening for H. pylori was found to have an incremental cost of US