Frode Vikebø

One mechanism contributing to co-variability of the Atlantic inflow branches to the Arctic

The two-branched inflow of warm and saline Atlantic Water to the Arctic is the major contributor of oceanic heat to the Arctic climate system. However, while the Atlantic Water entering the Arctic through the Fram Strait retains a large part of its heat as it flows along the Arctic continental slope, the branch flowing through the shallow Barents Sea releases a substantial amount of heat to the atmosphere. Hence, the pathway of the Atlantic Water into the Arctic to a large degree determines the short term fate of its heat. Here we show events in which the relative strengths of the two branches are affected by wind-induced Ekman-transport off the northern Barents Sea shelf. The resulting decrease in sea surface height induces a cyclonic circulation anomaly along the slope encircling the northern Barents Sea shelf area, which enhances the flow through the Barents Sea while weakening the branch flowing along the Arctic continental slope.

Retention of Coastal Cod Eggs in a Fjord Caused by Interactions between Egg Buoyancy and Circulation Pattern

Abstract Norwegian coastal cod form a stationary population of Atlantic cod Gadus morhua consisting of several genetically separated subpopulations. A small-scale differentiation in marine populations with pelagic eggs and larvae is made possible by local retention of early life stages in coastal environments. A numerical model was used to simulate the circulation in a fjord system in northern Norway over 2 years with different river runoff patterns. The dispersal of cod eggs was calculated with a particle-tracking model that used three-dimensional currents. The observed thickness of the low-salinity surface layer was well reproduced by the model, but the surface salinity was generally lower in the model than in the observations. The cod eggs attained a subsurface vertical distribution, avoiding the surface and causing retention. Interannual variations in river runoff can cause small changes in the vertical distribution of cod eggs and larger changes in the vertical current structure. Retention in the fjord system was strong in both years, but some eggs were subjected to offshore transport over a limited time period. The timing of offshore transport depended on the precipitation and temperatures in adjacent drainage areas. A possible match between maximized spawning and offshore transport may have a negative effect on local recruitment.

Along-shelf hydrographic anomalies in the Nordic Seas (1960–2011): locally generated or advective signals?

The northward flow of warm and saline Atlantic Water through the eastern Nordic Seas sustains a spring-bloom ecosystem that hosts some of the world’s largest commercial fish stocks. Abrupt climatic changes, or changes beyond species-specific thresholds, may have severe effects on species abundance and distribution. Here, we utilize a numerical ocean model hindcast to explore the similarities and differences between large-scale anomalies, such as great salinity anomalies, and along-shelf hydrographic anomalies of regional origin, which represent abrupt changes at subannual time scales. The large-scale anomalies enter the Nordic Seas to the south and propagate northward at a speed one order of magnitude less than the Atlantic Water current speed. On the contrary, wind-generated along-shelf anomalies appear simultaneously along the Norwegian continental shelf and propagate northward at speeds associated with topographically trapped Kelvin waves. This process involves changes in the vertical extent of the Atlantic Water along the continental slope. Such a dynamic oceanic response both affects thermal habitats and has the potential to ventilate shelf waters by modifying the cross-shelf transport of nutrients and key prey items for early stages of fish.

Real-Time Ichthyoplankton Drift in Northeast Arctic Cod and Norwegian Spring-Spawning Herring

Background Individual-based biophysical larval models, initialized and parameterized by observations, enable numerical investigations of various factors regulating survival of young fish until they recruit into the adult population. Exponentially decreasing numbers in Northeast Arctic cod and Norwegian Spring Spawning herring early changes emphasizes the importance of early life history, when ichthyoplankton exhibit pelagic free drift. However, while most studies are concerned with past recruitment variability it is also important to establish real-time predictions of ichthyoplankton distributions due to the increasing human activity in fish habitats and the need for distribution predictions that could potentially improve field coverage of ichthyoplankton. Methodology/Principal Findings A system has been developed for operational simulation of ichthyoplankton distributions. We have coupled a two-day ocean forecasts from the Norwegian Meteorological Institute with an individual-based ichthyoplankton model for Northeast Arctic cod and Norwegian Spring Spawning herring producing daily updated maps of ichthyoplankton distributions. Recent years observed spawning distribution and intensity have been used as input to the model system. The system has been running in an operational mode since 2008. Surveys are expensive and distributions of early stages are therefore only covered once or twice a year. Comparison between model and observations are therefore limited in time. However, the observed and simulated distributions of juvenile fish tend to agree well during early fall. Area-overlap between modeled and observed juveniles September 1st range from 61 to 73%, and 61 to 71% when weighted by concentrations. Conclusions/Significance The model system may be used to evaluate the design of ongoing surveys, to quantify the overlap with harmful substances in the ocean after accidental spills, as well as management planning of particular risky operations at sea. The modeled distributions are already utilized during research surveys to estimate coverage success of sampled biota and immediately after spills from ships at sea.

Climate-Driven Ichthyoplankton Drift Model Predicts Growth of Top Predator Young

Climate variability influences seabird population dynamics in several ways including access to prey near colonies during the critical chick-rearing period. This study addresses breeding success in a Barents Sea colony of common guillemots Uria aalge where trophic conditions vary according to changes in the northward transport of warm Atlantic Water. A drift model was used to simulate interannual variations in transport of cod Gadus morhua larvae along the Norwegian coast towards their nursery grounds in the Barents Sea. The results showed that the arrival of cod larvae from southern spawning grounds had a major effect on the size of common guillemot chicks at fledging. Furthermore, the fraction of larvae from the south was positively correlated to the inflow of Atlantic Water into the Barents Sea thus clearly demonstrating the mechanisms by which climate-driven bottom-up processes influence interannual variations in reproductive success in a marine top predator.

The stress hormone corticosterone in a marine top predator reflects short‐term changes in food availability

In many seabird studies, single annual proxies of prey abundance have been used to explain variability in breeding performance, but much more important is probably the timing of prey availability relative to the breeding season when energy demand is at a maximum. Until now, intraseasonal variation in prey availability has been difficult to quantify in seabirds. Using a state-of-the-art ocean drift model of larval cod Gadus morhua, an important constituent of the diet of common guillemots Uria aalge in the southwestern Barents Sea, we were able to show clear, short-term correlations between food availability and measurements of the stress hormone corticosterone (CORT) in parental guillemots over a 3-year period (2009–2011). The model allowed the extraction of abundance and size of cod larvae with very high spatial (4 km) and temporal resolutions (1 day) and showed that cod larvae from adjacent northern spawning grounds in Norway were always available near the guillemot breeding colony while those from more distant southerly spawning grounds were less frequent, but larger. The latter arrived in waves whose magnitude and timing, and thus overlap with the guillemot breeding season, varied between years. CORT levels in adult guillemots were lower in birds caught after a week with high frequencies of southern cod larvae. This pattern was restricted to the two years (2009 and 2010) in which southern larvae arrived before the end of the guillemot breeding season. Any such pattern was masked in 2011 by already exceptionally high numbers of cod larvae in the region throughout chick-rearing period. The findings suggest that CORT levels in breeding birds increase when the arrival of southern sizable larvae does not match the period of peak energy requirements during breeding.

Assessing impacts of simulated oil spills on the Northeast Arctic cod fishery

We simulate oil spills of 1500 and 4500m3/day lasting 14, 45, and 90days in the spawning grounds of the commercial fish species, Northeast Arctic cod. Modeling the life history of individual fish eggs and larvae, we predict deviations from the historical pattern of recruitment to the adult population due to toxic oil exposures. Reductions in survival for pelagic stages of cod were 0-10%, up to a maximum of 43%. These reductions resulted in a decrease in adult cod biomass of <3% for most scenarios, up to a maximum of 12%. In all simulations, the adult population remained at full reproductive potential with a sufficient number of juveniles surviving to replenish the population. The diverse age distribution helps protect the adult cod population from reductions in a single years recruitment after a major oil spill. These results provide insights to assist in managing oil spill impacts on fisheries.

Wind-Driven Atlantic Water Flow as a Direct Mode for Reduced Barents Sea Ice Cover

AbstractVariability in the Barents Sea ice cover on interannual and longer time scales has previously been shown to be governed by oceanic heat transport. Based on analysis of observations and results from an ocean circulation model during an event of reduced sea ice cover in the northeastern Barents Sea in winter 1993, it is shown that the ocean also plays a direct role within seasons. Positive wind stress curl and associated Ekman divergence causes a coherent increase in the Atlantic water transport along the negative thermal gradient through the Barents Sea. The immediate response connected to the associated local winds in the northeastern Barents Sea is a decrease in the sea ice cover due to advection. Despite a subsequent anomalous ocean-to-air heat loss on the order of 100 W m−2 due to the open water, the increase in the ocean heat content caused by the circulation anomaly reduced refreezing on a time scale of order one month. Furthermore, it is found that coherent ocean heat transport anomalies occ...

Modelled drift patterns of fish larvae link coastal morphology to seabird colony distribution

Colonial breeding is an evolutionary puzzle, as the benefits of breeding in high densities are still not fully explained. Although the dynamics of existing colonies are increasingly understood, few studies have addressed the initial formation of colonies, and empirical tests are rare. Using a high-resolution larval drift model, we here document that the distribution of seabird colonies along the Norwegian coast can be explained by variations in the availability and predictability of fish larvae. The modelled variability in concentration of fish larvae is, in turn, predicted by the topography of the continental shelf and coastline. The advection of fish larvae along the coast translates small-scale topographic characteristics into a macroecological pattern, viz. the spatial distribution of top-predator breeding sites. Our findings provide empirical corroboration of the hypothesis that seabird colonies are founded in locations that minimize travel distances between breeding and foraging locations, thereby enabling optimal foraging by central-place foragers.

The effects of oil spills on marine fish: Implications of spatial variation in natural mortality

The effects of oil spills on marine biological systems are of great concern, especially in regions with high biological production of harvested resources such as in the Northeastern Atlantic. The scientific studies of the impact of oil spills on fish stocks tend to ignore that spatial patterns of natural mortality may influence the magnitude of the impact over time. Here, we first illustrate how spatial variation in natural mortality may affect the population impact by considering a thought experiment. Second, we consider an empirically based example of Northeast Arctic cod to extend the concept to a realistic setting. Finally, we present a scenario-based investigation of how the degree of spatial variation in natural mortality affects the impact over a gradient of oil spill sizes. Including the effects of spatial variations in natural mortality tends to widen the impact distribution, hence increasing the probability of both high and low impact events.