Trond Kristiansen

Spatial Match-Mismatch between Juvenile Fish and Prey Provides a Mechanism for Recruitment Variability across Contrasting Climate Conditions in the Eastern Bering Sea

Understanding mechanisms behind variability in early life survival of marine fishes through modeling efforts can improve predictive capabilities for recruitment success under changing climate conditions. Walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) support the largest single-species commercial fishery in the United States and represent an ecologically important component of the Bering Sea ecosystem. Variability in walleye pollock growth and survival is structured in part by climate-driven bottom-up control of zooplankton composition. We used two modeling approaches, informed by observations, to understand the roles of prey quality, prey composition, and water temperature on juvenile walleye pollock growth: (1) a bioenergetics model that included local predator and prey energy densities, and (2) an individual-based model that included a mechanistic feeding component dependent on larval development and behavior, local prey densities and size, and physical oceanographic conditions. Prey composition in late-summer shifted from predominantly smaller copepod species in the warmer 2005 season to larger species in the cooler 2010 season, reflecting differences in zooplankton composition between years. In 2010, the main prey of juvenile walleye pollock were more abundant, had greater biomass, and higher mean energy density, resulting in better growth conditions. Moreover, spatial patterns in prey composition and water temperature lead to areas of enhanced growth, or growth ‘hot spots’, for juvenile walleye pollock and survival may be enhanced when fish overlap with these areas. This study provides evidence that a spatial mismatch between juvenile walleye pollock and growth ‘hot spots’ in 2005 contributed to poor recruitment while a higher degree of overlap in 2010 resulted in improved recruitment. Our results indicate that climate-driven changes in prey quality and composition can impact growth of juvenile walleye pollock, potentially severely affecting recruitment variability.

Real-Time Ichthyoplankton Drift in Northeast Arctic Cod and Norwegian Spring-Spawning Herring

Background Individual-based biophysical larval models, initialized and parameterized by observations, enable numerical investigations of various factors regulating survival of young fish until they recruit into the adult population. Exponentially decreasing numbers in Northeast Arctic cod and Norwegian Spring Spawning herring early changes emphasizes the importance of early life history, when ichthyoplankton exhibit pelagic free drift. However, while most studies are concerned with past recruitment variability it is also important to establish real-time predictions of ichthyoplankton distributions due to the increasing human activity in fish habitats and the need for distribution predictions that could potentially improve field coverage of ichthyoplankton. Methodology/Principal Findings A system has been developed for operational simulation of ichthyoplankton distributions. We have coupled a two-day ocean forecasts from the Norwegian Meteorological Institute with an individual-based ichthyoplankton model for Northeast Arctic cod and Norwegian Spring Spawning herring producing daily updated maps of ichthyoplankton distributions. Recent years observed spawning distribution and intensity have been used as input to the model system. The system has been running in an operational mode since 2008. Surveys are expensive and distributions of early stages are therefore only covered once or twice a year. Comparison between model and observations are therefore limited in time. However, the observed and simulated distributions of juvenile fish tend to agree well during early fall. Area-overlap between modeled and observed juveniles September 1st range from 61 to 73%, and 61 to 71% when weighted by concentrations. Conclusions/Significance The model system may be used to evaluate the design of ongoing surveys, to quantify the overlap with harmful substances in the ocean after accidental spills, as well as management planning of particular risky operations at sea. The modeled distributions are already utilized during research surveys to estimate coverage success of sampled biota and immediately after spills from ships at sea.

The Principles of Buoyancy in Marine Fish Eggs and Their Vertical Distributions across the World Oceans

Buoyancy acting on plankton, i.e. the difference in specific gravity between plankton and the ambient water, is a function of salinity and temperature. From specific gravity measurements of marine fish eggs salinity appears to be the only determinant of the buoyancy indicating that the thermal expansions of the fish egg and the ambient seawater are equal. We analyze the mechanisms behind thermal expansion in fish eggs in order to determine to what extent it can be justified to neglect the effects of temperature on buoyancy. Our results confirm the earlier assumptions that salinity is the basic determinant on buoyancy in marine fish eggs that, in turn, influence the vertical distributions and, consequently, the dispersal of fish eggs from the spawning areas. Fish populations have adapted accordingly by producing egg specific gravities that tune the egg buoyancy to create specific vertical distributions for each local population. A wide variety of buoyancy adaptations are found among fish populations. The ambient physical conditions at the spawning sites form a basic constraint for adaptation. In coastal regions where salinity increases with depth, and where the major fraction of the fish stocks spawns, pelagic and mesopelagic egg distributions dominate. However, in the larger part of worlds’ oceans salinity decreases with depth resulting in different egg distributions. Here, the principles of vertical distributions of fish eggs in the world oceans are presented in an overarching framework presenting the basic differences between regions, mainly coastal, where salinity increases with depth and the major part of the world oceans where salinity decreases with depth. We show that under these latter conditions, steady-state vertical distribution of mesopelagic fish eggs cannot exist as it does in most coastal regions. In fact, a critical spawning depth must exist where spawning below this depth threshold results in eggs sinking out of the water column and become lost for recruitment to the population. An example of adaptation to such conditions is Cape hake spawning above the critical layer in the Northern Benguela upwelling ecosystem. The eggs rise slowly in the onshore subsurface current below the Ekman layer, hence being advected inshore where the hatched larvae concentrate with optimal feeding conditions.

Impacts of Climate Change on Marine Organisms

Considerable progress has been made in understanding physiological responses of marine organisms to climate change (Portner and Farrell, 2008; Somero, 2011) and in projecting future responses of individual species (Chown and Gaston, 2008; Helmuth, 2009). Key to this understanding are findings that indicate that multiple climate-related and non-climate-related stressors interact in their impacts on marine organisms, and that physiological responses to these stressors can be highly variable across species and life-history stages.