G. L. Pita

Validation of a probabilistic model for hurricane insurance loss projections in Florida

The Florida Public Hurricane Loss Model is one of the first public models accessible for scrutiny to the scientific community, incorporating state of the art techniques in hurricane and vulnerability modeling. The model was developed for Florida, and is applicable to other hurricane-prone regions where construction practice is similar. The 2004 hurricane season produced substantial losses in Florida, and provided the means to validate and calibrate this model against actual claim data. This paper presents the predicted losses for several insurance portfolios corresponding to hurricanes Andrew, Charley, and Frances. The predictions are validated against the actual claim data. Physical damage predictions for external building components are also compared to observed damage. The analyses show that the predictive capabilities of the model were substantially improved after the calibration against the 2004 data. The methodology also shows that the predictive capabilities of the model could be enhanced if insurance companies report more detailed information about the structures they insure and the types of damage they suffer. This model can be a powerful tool for the study of risk reduction strategies.

Damage Characterization: Application to Florida Public Hurricane Loss Model

Florida’s population growth in recent decades has produced a steady increase in the concentration of population and infrastructure along its coastline. During this growth period, the vulnerability of the Florida coastline to hurricane impact has been amply demonstrated. The aftermaths unveiled the underlying potential for dramatic economic loss, which is disruptive for the state economy and has created a crisis in the property insurance market. To aid in preparedness efforts, the state of Florida commissioned a group of experts to develop the Florida Public Hurricane Loss Model (FPHLM). This paper describes how hurricane damage prediction techniques were developed and implemented in the vulnerability module of the FPHLM. The module consists of an external damage simulation engine coupled with internal damage and contents damage simulation engines. These components are described in this paper.

State of the Art of Hurricane Vulnerability Estimation Methods: A Review

AbstractThis paper presents a comprehensive review of methods to assess building vulnerability for hurricane catastrophe models. The review identified five main types of assessment approaches judging by the underlying methodology: past-loss data, enhanced damage data, heuristic, physics, and simulation. The applicability of past-loss data-only vulnerability methods proved insufficient for the diversity of situations insurance companies faced. Therefore, modelers complemented this method with engineering and meteorology expert knowledge; these are the enhanced-data models. Expert opinion and subjective probabilities drive the heuristic models; these were short lived in the United States, but are still used when data are scarce. Component-based methods were developed as a more realistic alternative to enhanced-data models by assessing vulnerability within an engineering framework complemented with expert opinion. Simulation models enhanced the physical models with a probabilistic simulation of the wind-stru...

Urban downburst vulnerability and damage assessment from a case study in Argentina

This paper presents a study of the damage pattern caused by a severe storm consisting of a downburst, a type of gustnado, and a tornado on Bell Ville, Argentina. Two damage surveys were conducted, one involving around 4000 questionnaires, which afforded both quantitative and qualitative insights about the damage on infrastructure, building components, and trees. Key findings include the identification of the most vulnerable urban elements which represented a significant portion of overall damage. Damage interdependencies among urban elements were also identified. The findings gained in this study help to characterize the vulnerability of this and similar cities for the most frequent intensity of downbursts, and along with some general recommendations which are also presented, they can inform local building codes, land-use regulations, and community development ordinances for cities facing this type of hazard in order to increase resilience.

Wind Vulnerability Curves for Low-Rise Commercial-Residential Buildings in the Florida Public Hurricane Loss Model

Regional wind loss predictions depend on vulnerability curves. A state of the art approach for developing the vulnerability curves is presented in the paper. It is based on engineering models that estimate the building damage caused by wind pressures, debris impact, and water penetration. This approach is a substantial improvement over traditional approaches, which derive vulnerability curves for different kind of buildings through curve fitting of historical insurance loss data. This paper describes the engineering model used to develop vulnerability curves for commercialresidential buildings in the Florida Public Hurricane Loss Model.

Life-cycle assessment of personal residential roof decking and cover under hurricane t hreat

This paper describes how modelers of the Florida Public Hurricane Loss Model (FPHLM) account for and implement various roofing characteristics that reflect the historical building practices and code enforcement in Florida. The life cycle of roofing structural elements, particularly the roof cover, are considered by using an algorithm to estimate whether or not a structure has been retrofitted based on the original year built. The paper will discuss the role of building practices and life cycles of roofing components and their use in vulnerability models as well as discuss the influence of roof retrofits on the vulnerabilities of typical personal residential structures.