Jean-Paul Pinelli

Validation of a probabilistic model for hurricane insurance loss projections in Florida

The Florida Public Hurricane Loss Model is one of the first public models accessible for scrutiny to the scientific community, incorporating state of the art techniques in hurricane and vulnerability modeling. The model was developed for Florida, and is applicable to other hurricane-prone regions where construction practice is similar. The 2004 hurricane season produced substantial losses in Florida, and provided the means to validate and calibrate this model against actual claim data. This paper presents the predicted losses for several insurance portfolios corresponding to hurricanes Andrew, Charley, and Frances. The predictions are validated against the actual claim data. Physical damage predictions for external building components are also compared to observed damage. The analyses show that the predictive capabilities of the model were substantially improved after the calibration against the 2004 data. The methodology also shows that the predictive capabilities of the model could be enhanced if insurance companies report more detailed information about the structures they insure and the types of damage they suffer. This model can be a powerful tool for the study of risk reduction strategies.

Damage Characterization: Application to Florida Public Hurricane Loss Model

Florida’s population growth in recent decades has produced a steady increase in the concentration of population and infrastructure along its coastline. During this growth period, the vulnerability of the Florida coastline to hurricane impact has been amply demonstrated. The aftermaths unveiled the underlying potential for dramatic economic loss, which is disruptive for the state economy and has created a crisis in the property insurance market. To aid in preparedness efforts, the state of Florida commissioned a group of experts to develop the Florida Public Hurricane Loss Model (FPHLM). This paper describes how hurricane damage prediction techniques were developed and implemented in the vulnerability module of the FPHLM. The module consists of an external damage simulation engine coupled with internal damage and contents damage simulation engines. These components are described in this paper.

TESTING OF ENERGY DISSIPATING CLADDING CONNECTIONS

Properly designed precast concrete cladding could potentially provide lateral stiffness, ductility, and energy dissipation for an overall building structure, especially during earthquakes. This paper describes a set of advanced connections that take advantage of the interaction between facade panels and structure (mainly due to horizontal interstorey drift) to dissipate energy, thereby reducing the response of the main structure. The results of an experimental program to characterize the hysteretic behaviour of advanced connections are presented. Design equations for the advanced connections are then calibrated against the test results, and the corresponding design charts are presented. It is anticipated that this research will lead to innovative ways of viewing the entire cladding system of a building.

A wireless multipoint pressure sensing system: design and operation

This paper describes the development of a remote-sensing and wireless data acquisition system. The system was developed as part of a research effort currently underway to instrument coastal homes in Florida to monitor roof wind pressures during hurricanes. However, the design of the wireless data acquisition is flexible enough to adapt to other multisensor, wind tunnel, or field-testing applications. This paper describes the details of the design, theory of operation, and the results of field performance tests of the system. The new system offers the advantages of ease of installation, capability for more than 48 h of continuous data acquisition from up to 60 sensors at variable sampling rate, and relatively easy maintenance.

State of the Art of Hurricane Vulnerability Estimation Methods: A Review

AbstractThis paper presents a comprehensive review of methods to assess building vulnerability for hurricane catastrophe models. The review identified five main types of assessment approaches judging by the underlying methodology: past-loss data, enhanced damage data, heuristic, physics, and simulation. The applicability of past-loss data-only vulnerability methods proved insufficient for the diversity of situations insurance companies faced. Therefore, modelers complemented this method with engineering and meteorology expert knowledge; these are the enhanced-data models. Expert opinion and subjective probabilities drive the heuristic models; these were short lived in the United States, but are still used when data are scarce. Component-based methods were developed as a more realistic alternative to enhanced-data models by assessing vulnerability within an engineering framework complemented with expert opinion. Simulation models enhanced the physical models with a probabilistic simulation of the wind-stru...

Large-Scale Experimentation Using the 12-Fan Wall of Wind to Assess and Mitigate Hurricane Wind and Rain Impacts on Buildings and Infrastructure Systems

AbstractEngineering research is undergoing dramatic changes with novel, large-scale research facilities being developed to help reduce the growing economic losses associated with natural disasters....

Cost-and-Benefit Evaluation of Windstorm Damage Mitigation Techniques in Florida

AbstractThe hurricanes of recent years have caused many insurers to raise their premiums in response to increased losses. In the long-term, the most effective solution to reduce damage and insurance costs is to apply mitigation techniques. This paper presents a methodology for evaluating the effectiveness of various mitigation measures in reducing wind storm losses to residential buildings. The individual mitigations were combined into different sets. These sets of mitigations were applied to typical timber box and masonry residential structures of different ages and quality of construction (from weak pre-1970 to stronger post-2002 construction). In each case, a detailed cost analysis of the unmitigated and mitigated building was performed, and the relative cost-effectiveness of mitigation was assessed through comparisons of the results of portfolio analyses with and without mitigation. The mitigation cost-effectiveness study includes component vulnerabilities from Monte Carlo simulation, overall building...

Estimation of Wind-Driven Rain Intrusion through Building Envelope Defects and Breaches during Tropical Cyclones

AbstractWind-driven rain (WDR) intrusion through building envelope defects and breaches is a major source of damage to building interior components and contents during hurricane landfall. The extent of total building interior damage (damage to building interior components, utility, and contents) is a function of the total volume of WDR intrusion which in turn is dependent on the size of openings, wind speed, and rain intensity. Currently, the volume of rainwater intrusion through a given opening on a building facade is estimated using a semiempirical model with use of parametric information based on engineering judgment. This paper presents a test-based WDR intrusion model which uses values of parameters developed through testing of building models under simulated WDR conditions. The model estimates the total volume of rainwater intrusion through an opening as a summation of WDR volume attributable to direct impinging raindrops and surface runoff rainwater from the undamaged envelope area. Test-based WDR ...

Wind Vulnerability Curves for Low-Rise Commercial-Residential Buildings in the Florida Public Hurricane Loss Model

Regional wind loss predictions depend on vulnerability curves. A state of the art approach for developing the vulnerability curves is presented in the paper. It is based on engineering models that estimate the building damage caused by wind pressures, debris impact, and water penetration. This approach is a substantial improvement over traditional approaches, which derive vulnerability curves for different kind of buildings through curve fitting of historical insurance loss data. This paper describes the engineering model used to develop vulnerability curves for commercialresidential buildings in the Florida Public Hurricane Loss Model.

Hurricane Wind versus Storm Surge Damage in the Context of a Risk Prediction Model

AbstractAnnualized hurricane-related losses in the United States are in the billions of dollars. The majority of the coastal population lives in buildings prone to hurricanes, which could result in...