Gabriel Helmlinger

Why do SGLT2 inhibitors reduce heart failure hospitalization? A differential volume regulation hypothesis

The effect of a sodium glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitor (SGLT2i) in reducing heart failure hospitalization in the EMPA‐REG OUTCOMES trial has raised the possibility of using these agents to treat established heart failure. We hypothesize that osmotic diuresis induced by SGLT2 inhibition, a distinctly different diuretic mechanism than that of other diuretic classes, results in greater electrolyte‐free water clearance and, ultimately, in greater fluid clearance from the interstitial fluid (IF) space than from the circulation, potentially resulting in congestion relief with minimal impact on blood volume, arterial filling and organ perfusion. We utilize a mathematical model to illustrate that electrolyte‐free water clearance results in a greater reduction in IF volume compared to blood volume, and that this difference may be mediated by peripheral sequestration of osmotically inactive sodium. By coupling the model with data on plasma and urinary sodium and water in healthy subjects who received either the SGLT2i dapagliflozin or loop diuretic bumetanide, we predict that dapagliflozin produces a 2‐fold greater reduction in IF volume compared to blood volume, while the reduction in IF volume with bumetanide is only 78% of the reduction in blood volume. Heart failure is characterized by excess fluid accumulation, in both the vascular compartment and interstitial space, yet many heart failure patients have arterial underfilling because of low cardiac output, which may be aggravated by conventional diuretic treatment. Thus, we hypothesize that, by reducing IF volume to a greater extent than blood volume, SGLT2 inhibitors might provide better control of congestion without reducing arterial filling and perfusion.

Primary proximal tubule hyperreabsorption and impaired tubular transport counterregulation determine glomerular hyperfiltration in diabetes: a modeling analysis

Glomerular hypertension and hyperfiltration in early diabetes are associated with development and progression of diabetic kidney disease. The tubular hypothesis of diabetic hyperfiltration proposes that it is initiated by a primary increase in sodium (Na) reabsorption in the proximal tubule (PT) and the resulting tubuloglomerular feedback (TGF) response and lowering of Bowman space pressure (PBow). Here we utilized a mathematical model of the human kidney to investigate over acute and chronic timescales the mechanisms responsible for the magnitude of the hyperfiltration response. The model implicates that the primary hyperreabsorption of Na in the PT produces a Na imbalance that is only partially restored by the hyperfiltration induced by TGF and changes in PBow Thus secondary adaptations are needed to restore Na balance. This may include neurohumoral transport regulation and/or pressure-natriuresis (i.e., the decrease in Na reabsorption in response to increased renal perfusion pressure). We explored the role of each tubular segment in contributing to this compensation and the consequences of impairment in tubular compensation. The simulations indicate that impaired secondary downregulation of transport potentiated the rise in glomerular hypertension and hyperfiltration needed to restore Na balance at a given level of primary PT hyperreabsorption. Therefore, we propose for the first time that both the extent of primary PT hyperreabsorption and the degree of impairment of the distal tubular responsiveness to regulatory signals determine the level of glomerular hypertension and hyperfiltration in the diabetic kidney, thereby extending the tubule-centric concept of diabetic hyperfiltration and potential therapeutic approaches beyond the proximal tubule.

Requirements for multi-level systems pharmacology models to reach end-usage: the case of type 2 diabetes

We are currently in the middle of a major shift in biomedical research: unprecedented and rapidly growing amounts of data may be obtained today, from in vitro, in vivo and clinical studies, at molecular, physiological and clinical levels. To make use of these large-scale, multi-level datasets, corresponding multi-level mathematical models are needed, i.e. models that simultaneously capture multiple layers of the biological, physiological and disease-level organization (also referred to as quantitative systems pharmacology—QSP—models). However, todays multi-level models are not yet embedded in end-usage applications, neither in drug research and development nor in the clinic. Given the expectations and claims made historically, this seemingly slow adoption may seem surprising. Therefore, we herein consider a specific example—type 2 diabetes—and critically review the current status and identify key remaining steps for these models to become mainstream in the future. This overview reveals how, today, we may use models to ask scientific questions concerning, e.g., the cellular origin of insulin resistance, and how this translates to the whole-body level and short-term meal responses. However, before these multi-level models can become truly useful, they need to be linked with the capabilities of other important existing models, in order to make them ‘personalized’ (e.g. specific to certain patient phenotypes) and capable of describing long-term disease progression. To be useful in drug development, it is also critical that the developed models and their underlying data and assumptions are easily accessible. For clinical end-usage, in addition, model links to decision-support systems combined with the engagement of other disciplines are needed to create user-friendly and cost-efficient software packages.

A Generic Mechanism for Enhanced Cytokine Signaling via Cytokine-Neutralizing Antibodies.

Enhancement or inhibition of cytokine signaling and corresponding immune cells responses are critical factors in various disease treatments. Cytokine signaling may be inhibited by cytokine-neutralizing antibodies (CNAs), which prevents further activation of cytokine receptors. However, CNAs may result in enhanced—instead of inhibitory—cytokine signaling (an “agonistic effect”) in various in vitro and in vivo experiments. This may lead to lack of efficacy or adverse events for cytokine-inhibiting based medicines. Alternatively, cytokine-antibody complexes may produce stronger signaling vs. cytokine alone, thereby increasing the efficacy of stimulating cytokine-based drugs, at equal or lower cytokine doses. In this paper, the effect of cytokine signaling enhancement by a CNA was studied in a generic mathematical model of interleukin-4 (IL-4) driven T-cell proliferation. The occurrence of the agonistic effect depends upon the antibody-to-cytokine binding affinity and initial concentrations of antibody and cytokine. Model predictions were in agreement with experimental studies. When the cytokine receptor consists of multiple subunits with substantially differing affinities (e.g., IL-4 case), the choice of the receptor chain to be blocked by the antibody is critical, for the agonistic effect to appear. We propose a generic mechanism for the effect: initially, binding of the CNA to the cytokine reduces free cytokine concentration; yet, cytokine molecules bound within the cytokine-CNA complex—and released later and over time—are “rescued” from earlier clearance via cellular internalization. Hence, although free cytokine-dependent signalling may be less potent initially, it will also be more sustained over time; and given non-linear dynamics, it will lead ultimately to larger cellular effector responses, vs. the same amount of free cytokine in the absence of CNA. We suggest that the proposed mechanism is a generic property of {cytokine, CNA, receptor} triads, both in vitro and in vivo, and can occur in a predictable fashion for a variety of cytokines of the immune system.

Interpretation of metabolic memory phenomenon using a physiological systems model: What drives oxidative stress following glucose normalization?

Hyperglycemia is generally associated with oxidative stress, which plays a key role in diabetes-related complications. A complex, quantitative relationship has been established between glucose levels and oxidative stress, both in vitro and in vivo. For example, oxidative stress is known to persist after glucose normalization, a phenomenon described as metabolic memory. Also, uncontrolled glucose levels appear to be more detrimental to patients with diabetes (non-constant glucose levels) vs. patients with high, constant glucose levels. The objective of the current study was to delineate the mechanisms underlying such behaviors, using a mechanistic physiological systems modeling approach that captures and integrates essential underlying pathophysiological processes. The proposed model was based on a system of ordinary differential equations. It describes the interplay between reactive oxygen species production potential (ROS), ROS-induced cell alterations, and subsequent adaptation mechanisms. Model parameters were calibrated using different sources of experimental information, including ROS production in cell cultures exposed to various concentration profiles of constant and oscillating glucose levels. The model adequately reproduced the ROS excess generation after glucose normalization. Such behavior appeared to be driven by positive feedback regulations between ROS and ROS-induced cell alterations. The further oxidative stress-related detrimental effect as induced by unstable glucose levels can be explained by inability of cells to adapt to dynamic environment. Cell adaptation to instable high glucose declines during glucose normalization phases, and further glucose increase promotes similar or higher oxidative stress. In contrast, gradual ROS production potential decrease, driven by adaptation, is observed in cells exposed to constant high glucose.

Multiscale Mathematical Model of Drug-Induced Proximal Tubule Injury: Linking Urinary Biomarkers to Epithelial Cell Injury and Renal Dysfunction

Drug-induced nephrotoxicity is a major cause of acute kidney injury, and thus detecting the potential for nephrotoxicity early in the drug development process is critical. Various urinary biomarkers exhibit different patterns following drug-induced injury, which may provide greater information than traditional biomarkers like serum creatinine. In this study, we developed a multiscale quantitative systems pharmacology model relating drug exposure to proximal tubule (PT) epithelial cell injury and subsequently to expression of multiple urinary biomarkers and organ-level functional changes. We utilized urinary kidney injury molecule-1 (Kim-1), alpha glutathione S-transferase, albumin (αGST), glucose, and urine volume time profiles as well as serum creatinine and histopathology data obtained from rats treated with the nephrotoxicant cisplatin to develop the model. Although the model was developed using single-dose response to cisplatin, the model predicted the serum creatinine response to multidose cisplatin regimens. Further, using only the urinary Kim-1 response to gentamicin (a nephrotoxicant with a distinctly different injury time course than cisplatin), the model detected and predicted mild to moderate PT injury, as confirmed with histopathology, even when serum creatinine was unchanged. Thus, the model is generalizable, and can be used to deconvolute the underlying degree and time course of drug-induced PT injury and renal dysfunction from a small number of urinary biomarkers, and may provide a tool to determine optimal dosing regimens that minimize renal injury.

Integrating dose estimation into a decision-making framework for model-based drug development

Model-informed drug discovery and development offers the promise of more efficient clinical development, with increased productivity and reduced cost through scientific decision making and risk management. Go/no-go development decisions in the pharmaceutical industry are often driven by effect size estimates, with the goal of meeting commercially generated target profiles. Sufficient efficacy is critical for eventual success, but the decision to advance development phase is also dependent on adequate knowledge of appropriate dose and dose-response. Doses which are too high or low pose risk of clinical or commercial failure. This paper addresses this issue and continues the evolution of formal decision frameworks in drug development. Here, we consider the integration of both efficacy and dose-response estimation accuracy into the go/no-go decision process, using a model-based approach. Using prespecified target and lower reference values associated with both efficacy and dose accuracy, we build a decision framework to more completely characterize development risk. Given the limited knowledge of dose response in early development, our approach incorporates a set of dose-response models and uses model averaging. The approach and its operating characteristics are illustrated through simulation. Finally, we demonstrate the decision approach on a post hoc analysis of the phase 2 data for naloxegol (a drug approved for opioid-induced constipation).

Radiation and PD-(L)1 treatment combinations: immune response and dose optimization via a predictive systems model

BackgroundNumerous oncology combination therapies involving modulators of the cancer immune cycle are being developed, yet quantitative simulation models predictive of outcome are lacking. We here present a model-based analysis of tumor size dynamics and immune markers, which integrates experimental data from multiple studies and provides a validated simulation framework predictive of biomarkers and anti-tumor response rates, for untested dosing sequences and schedules of combined radiation (RT) and anti PD-(L)1 therapies.MethodsA quantitative systems pharmacology model, which includes key elements of the cancer immunity cycle and the tumor microenvironment, tumor growth, as well as dose-exposure-target modulation features, was developed to reproduce experimental data of CT26 tumor size dynamics upon administration of RT and/or a pharmacological IO treatment such as an anti-PD-L1 agent. Variability in individual tumor size dynamics was taken into account using a mixed-effects model at the level of tumor-infiltrating T cell influx.ResultsThe model allowed for a detailed quantitative understanding of the synergistic kinetic effects underlying immune cell interactions as linked to tumor size modulation, under these treatments. The model showed that the ability of T cells to infiltrate tumor tissue is a primary determinant of variability in individual tumor size dynamics and tumor response. The model was further used as an in silico evaluation tool to quantitatively predict, prospectively, untested treatment combination schedules and sequences. We demonstrate that anti-PD-L1 administration prior to, or concurrently with RT reveal further synergistic effects, which, according to the model, may materialize due to more favorable dynamics between RT-induced immuno-modulation and reduced immuno-suppression of T cells through anti-PD-L1.ConclusionsThis study provides quantitative mechanistic explanations of the links between RT and anti-tumor immune responses, and describes how optimized combinations and schedules of immunomodulation and radiation may tip the immune balance in favor of the host, sufficiently to lead to tumor shrinkage or rejection.

Evaluation of renal and cardiovascular protection mechanisms of SGLT2 inhibitors: model-based analysis of clinical data

The mechanisms of cardiovascular and renal protection observed in clinical trials of sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 (SGLT2) inhibitors (SGLT2i) are incompletely understood and likely multifactorial, including natriuretic, diuretic, and antihypertensive effects, glomerular pressure reduction, and lowering of plasma and interstitial fluid volume. To quantitatively evaluate the contribution of proposed SGLT2i mechanisms of action on changes in renal hemodynamics and volume status, we coupled a mathematical model of renal function and volume homeostasis with clinical data in healthy subjects administered 10 mg of dapagliflozin once daily. The minimum set of mechanisms necessary to reproduce observed clinical responses (urinary sodium and water excretion, serum creatinine and sodium) was determined, and important unobserved physiological variables (glomerular pressure, blood and interstitial fluid volume) were then simulated. We further simulated the response to SGLT2i in diabetic virtual patients with and without renal impairment. Multiple mechanisms were required to explain the observed response: 1) direct inhibition of sodium and glucose reabsorption through SGLT2, 2) SGLT2-driven inhibition of Na+/H+ exchanger 3 sodium reabsorption, and 3) osmotic diuresis coupled with peripheral sodium storage. The model also showed that the consequences of these mechanisms include lowering of glomerular pressure, reduction of blood and interstitial fluid volume, and mild blood pressure reduction, in agreement with clinical observations. The simulations suggest that these effects are more significant in diabetic patients than healthy subjects and that while glucose excretion may diminish with renal impairment, improvements in glomerular pressure and blood volume are not diminished at lower glomerular filtration rate, suggesting that cardiorenal benefits of SGLT2i may be sustained in renally impaired patients.

Assessing QT/QTc interval prolongation with concentration-QT modeling for Phase I studies: impact of computational platforms, model structures and confidence interval calculation methods

Modeling the relationship between drug concentrations and heart rate corrected QT interval (QTc) change from baseline (C-∆QTc), based on Phase I single ascending dose (SAD) or multiple ascending dose (MAD) studies, has been proposed as an alternative to thorough QT studies (TQT), in assessing drug-induced QT prolongation risk. The present analysis used clinical SAD, MAD and TQT study data of an experimental compound, AZD5672, to evaluate the performance of: (i) three computational platforms (linear mixed-effects modeling implemented via PROC MIXED in SAS, as well as in R using LME4 package and linear quantile mixed models (LQMM) implemented via LQMM package; (ii) different model structures with and without treatment- or time-specific intercepts; and (iii) three methods for calculating the confidence interval (CI) of QTc prolongation (analytical and bootstrap methods with fixed or varied geometric mean concentrations). We show that treatment- and time-specific intercepts may need to be included into C-∆QTc modeling through PROC MIXED or LME4, regardless of their statistical significance. With the intersection union test (IUT) in the TQT study as a reference for comparison, inclusion of these intercepts increased the feasibility for C-∆QTc modelling of SAD or MAD to reach the same conclusion as the IUT analysis based on TQT study. Compared to PROC MIXED or LME4, the LQMM method is less dependent on inclusion of treatment- or time-specific intercepts, and the bootstrap CI calculation methods provided higher likelihood for C-∆QTc modeling of SAD and MAD studies to reach the same conclusion as the IUT based on the TQT study.