Gabriel Porcile

Accumulation of Capabilities, Structural Change, and Macro Prices: an Evolutionary and Structuralist Roadmap

Both economic history and economic theory generally acknowledge a deep relationship between technical change and economic development. It is quite intuitive that improvements in the efficiency of production techniques or in product performances may be a determinant or at least a condition for growth in productivity and industrialization. The opening of the technological black box has often gone hand in hand with important insights on how learning and technological capabilities develop in less developed economies. Studies on the sources, mechanisms, and patterns of learning and its microeconomic impact on productivity growth have flourished over the last four decades.

Micro-Macro Interactions in Technological Learning and Growth

The links between the micro and macro levels have challenged theoretical efforts in many fields, and economics is no exception. It is well known that the thought on micro-macro interactions in economic theory has followed at least two alternative paths. One of them comprises rational expectations and the construction of macroeconomic models based on adding up a certain number of identical, representative agents that uniformly maximize utility and profits. The other path is related to the evolutionary school and the concept of bounded rationality, heterogeneous agents and behaviour structured by institutions, in which the macro level evolves along with the learning process and transformation of the micro units.1 Jorge Katz has made significant contributions to this second approach, which we believe is the most useful to discuss the process of accumulation of technological capabilities in economic development.2 His works on the evolution of firms and industries under different macro conditions and institutional frameworks in Latin America allowed him to identify different patterns of micro–macro interactions (see in particular Katz, 1982, 1997 and 2001; Katz and Ablin, 1985; Cimoli and Katz, 2003). Such patterns evolved from the period of import-substituting industrialization to the “lost decade” of the 1980s, the pro-market reforms of the 1990s and the bonanza in commodity exports that began in 2004.

Still Blowin’ in the Wind: Industrial Policy, Distorted Prices, and Implicit Reciprocity

Structuralist and evolutionary theories agree on the fact that one of the main challenges of development is diffusing technological progress, so as to change the pattern of specialization by incorporating new sectors and reducing inter-sectoral disparities, raising productivity levels and improving income distribution; then, once external constraints are overcome, faster growth will allow for a decline in unemployment and underemployment in the subsistence sector.

Estrutura das exportações e crescimento econômico: uma análise empírica, 1985-2003

Export structure and economic growth: an empirical analysis, 1985-2003 - The paper discusses the idea that the quality of exports matters for economic growth. The influence of the structure of exports on the rates of economic growth is discussed within the context of a growth model with external constraints. To test the relationship between exports and growth, exports are divided in two groups: a) dynamic from a Schumpeterian perspective (high-tech sectors) and b) dynamic from a Keynesian perspective (international demand grows at higher rates than the average). The key hypothesis is that countries whose total exports have higher shares of sectors with Keynesian and Schumpeterian efficiency will grow faster. The empirical results are consistent with this hypothesis. In addition, the results suggest that Schumpeterian efficiency tends to have a stronger impact on growth than Keynesian efficiency.