Gabriel Reygondeau

Defining Mediterranean and Black Sea biogeochemical subprovinces and synthetic ocean indicators using mesoscale oceanographic features.

The Mediterranean and Black Seas are semi-enclosed basins characterized by high environmental variability and growing anthropogenic pressure. This has led to an increasing need for a bioregionalization of the oceanic environment at local and regional scales that can be used for managerial applications as a geographical reference. We aim to identify biogeochemical subprovinces within this domain, and develop synthetic indices of the key oceanographic dynamics of each subprovince to quantify baselines from which to assess variability and change. To do this, we compile a data set of 101 months (2002–2010) of a variety of both “classical” (i.e., sea surface temperature, surface chlorophyll-a, and bathymetry) and “mesoscale” (i.e., eddy kinetic energy, finite-size Lyapunov exponents, and surface frontal gradients) ocean features that we use to characterize the surface ocean variability. We employ a k-means clustering algorithm to objectively define biogeochemical subprovinces based on classical features, and, for the first time, on mesoscale features, and on a combination of both classical and mesoscale features. Principal components analysis is then performed on the oceanographic variables to define integrative indices to monitor the environmental changes within each resultant subprovince at monthly resolutions. Using both the classical and mesoscale features, we find five biogeochemical subprovinces for the Mediterranean and Black Seas. Interestingly, the use of mesoscale variables contributes highly in the delineation of the open ocean. The first axis of the principal component analysis is explained primarily by classical ocean features and the second axis is explained by mesoscale features. Biogeochemical subprovinces identified by the present study can be useful within the European management framework as an objective geographical framework of the Mediterranean and Black Seas, and the synthetic ocean indicators developed here can be used to monitor variability and long-term change.

Global estimation of areas with suitable environmental conditions for mariculture species

Aquaculture has grown rapidly over the last three decades expanding at an average annual growth rate of 5.8% (2005–2014), down from 8.8% achieved between 1980 and 2010. The sector now produces 44% of total food fish production. Increasing demand and consumption from a growing global population are driving further expansion of both inland and marine aquaculture (i.e., mariculture, including marine species farmed on land). However, the growth of mariculture is dependent on the availability of suitable farming areas for new facilities, particularly for open farming practices that rely on the natural oceanic environmental parameters such as temperature, oxygen, chlorophyll etc. In this study, we estimated the marine areas within the exclusive economic zones of all countries that were suitable for potential open ocean mariculture activities. To this end, we quantify the environmental niche and inferred the global habitat suitability index (HSI) of the 102 most farmed marine species using four species distribution models. The average weighted HSI across the four models suggests that 72,000,000 km2 of ocean are to be environmentally suitable to farm one or more species. About 92% of the predicted area (66,000,000 km2) is environmentally suitable for farming finfish, 43% (31,000,000 km2) for molluscs and 54% (39,000,000 km2) for crustaceans. These predictions do not consider technological feasibility that can limit crustaceans farming in open waters. Suitable mariculture areas along the Atlantic coast of South America and West Africa appear to be most under-utilized for farming. Our results suggest that factors other than environmental considerations such as the lack of socio-economic and technological capacity, as well as aqua feed supply are currently limiting the potential for mariculture expansion in many areas.

Climate change impacts on marine biodiversity, fisheries and society in the Arabian Gulf

Climate change–reflected in significant environmental changes such as warming, sea level rise, shifts in salinity, oxygen and other ocean conditions–is expected to impact marine organisms and associated fisheries. This study provides an assessment of the potential impacts on, and the vulnerability of, marine biodiversity and fisheries catches in the Arabian Gulf under climate change. To this end, using three separate niche modelling approaches under a ‘business-as-usual’ climate change scenario, we projected the future habitat suitability of the Arabian Gulf (also known as the Persian Gulf) for 55 expert-identified priority species, including charismatic and non-fish species. Second, we conducted a vulnerability assessment of national economies to climate change impacts on fisheries. The modelling outputs suggested a high rate of local extinction (up to 35% of initial species richness) by 2090 relative to 2010. Spatially, projected local extinctions are highest in the southwestern part of the Gulf, off the coast of Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). While the projected patterns provided useful indicators of potential climate change impacts on the region’s diversity, the magnitude of changes in habitat suitability are more uncertain. Fisheries-specific results suggested reduced future catch potential for several countries on the western side of the Gulf, with projections differing only slightly among models. Qatar and the UAE were particularly affected, with more than a 26% drop in future fish catch potential. Integrating changes in catch potential with socio-economic indicators suggested the fisheries of Bahrain and Iran may be most vulnerable to climate change. We discuss limitations of the indicators and the methods used, as well as the implications of our overall findings for conservation and fisheries management policies in the region.